How the Pandemic Will End

theatlantic.com

5 pointsdempedempe2 comments

>> By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents.

Where does the "2.2 million" number come from? Does anyone know? It follows from the citing of the Imperial College report but it does not seem to be atttributed to the report itself.

I think the paragraph (and the author) meant that sentence to be taken as attributed to the report's scenario -- meaning "if the virus is left unchecked."

A study released by a team at Imperial College London concluded that if the pandemic is left unchecked, those beds will all be full by late April. By the end of June, for every available critical-care bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. This is the worst-case scenario. To avert it, four things need to happen—and quickly.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com