US now nation with most coronavirus cases
bbc.com
bbc.com
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data (hasn't been updated in a week)
The odds of any random person getting it are still low, especially if you're not in one of the epicenters. Testing random people would be wasting time, effort, and tests. All of which are limited.
That's where the "stay home!" mantra kicks in. If you have it and stay home for two weeks, maybe you infect your family but none of you infect anyone else. Therefore, it burns out without anyone else to spread to. Not a perfect world but it's the one we ahve.
A serological study, which you would usually only conduct post-mortem (but in light of the conditions, we may have use for an interim study), would shed light on how many people had been infected without knowledge, and give us some estimates of how infectious asymptomatic carriers are.
Short of that, in countries where testing has been highly available and unconditional, you can begin to get a picture of that; it's not as good though, since people who go for testing are still self-selecting to some extent.
(not totally random across the population but attempting to get a representative sample)
Also, if it is I stand corrected on my original statement. However, Singapore is a pretty small, cohesive nation with a strong central government. They, along with a handful of other city-states, are uniquely positioned for this. The poster child for testing-based control, South Korea, is not testing randomly. So, how is this a dig on the US?
> So, how is this a dig on the US?
It factors into the "most confirmed" discussion. Nobody has a true perspective if everyone's samples suffer from wildly different biases.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/thir...
This would mean that the true number of confirmed cases in China is more than 50% higher than the official number.
They reported 81,285 cases. So, 81,285 + 43,000 = 124,285 cases.
And 3287 deaths. So, that’s a 2.64% death rate.
At these numbers, and with the virus now worldwide, I think China’s numbers are now irrelevant. It’s better to begin focusing our energies on mitigation and containment.
...it's not much of a leap to imagine that the reason is to hide the true number that were infected.
So, while they might have had more total cases, we likely have far more active cases.
Edit: Feel free to downvote this, but please offer an explanation as to precisely how China could be hiding an outbreak of any significant scale.
And if anyone was going to decide not to try to ventilate every single case, it would be China, who already released a report that in 81% of cases, they die anyway.
That rate is low, but the denominator grows at astronomical speed; evidence of the high numerator is going to show up eventually.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronaviru...
Ultimately, comparing year-over-year deaths may be a more accurate estimate than deaths of tested people.
Hospitals are already overwhelmed, what do you imagine is going to happen when the number continues to double every five days?
It's exponential. Start of the curve.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-52044058/coronavirus-first...
Edit: 29th ranked, behind Hong Kong, South Korea, but ahead of most other newsworthy COVID hot spots. I suspect large Indian cities are well above 29th.
Also India has no Winter, only Monsoons, wet and dry. It is warn and dry there now.
It seems this virus propagates much better in cold weather.
This hasn't been confirmed, but I've seen quotes from various professionals saying it is at least likely, and the distribution of cases certainly makes it feel true.
we are increasingly coming to the realisation that that's probably wrong.
Its the first time i hear such claim.
However, given how differently the US and China have responded to the virus, it's hard to see how the US will not surpass China (if it hasn't already done so) in total number of cases.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight...
Edit: okay I see. Still too early to tell. But hah pretty funny if it really is just a huge coincidence post Olympic news
However being here in Japan it does look like people haven’t been taking this seriously at all, not learning what is happening in other countries and how quickly it can go from negligible to nightmarish. Therefore Japan is ripe for a second wave. And it’s probably already happening...
Hoping the medical system can cope. Hoping it won’t be a bad second wave.
We could be so much better at this with really very little effort. Lots of capable people just needing direction. I wish the president would appoint a credible corona-czar and give up the microphone.
But then we can drill further and compare Lombardy, which has a similar population to NYC's. They have 35k and 22k cases, respectively.
I think the only thing we learned here is that snap-judgement narratives are fairly useless here. Just look at the raw data if you want to have an opinion, it's quite accessible.
NY — 1.03%
Lombardy — 13.9%
We know deaths lag behind infections by a week or two. [1] and we know the US was a couple of weeks behind Italy and Spain in their infections blowing up.
So we'll have to wait until a couple of weeks after peak infections before we can see the true mortality rate in any given region/country.
[1] https://miro.medium.com/max/9350/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.pn...
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/12432908485082603...
Hmm. Our curves look exactly like Spain and Italy, and indeed almost every exposed country appears to be on the same curve (with differing lags).
A few countries seem to be doing significantly better, but it's far from clear why.
China's credibility on mass death statistics is a bit shaky, and Japan has had a serious moral hazard given their 2020 Olympic hosting (and there has been a sudden blip in Tokyo in the last day or two).
Looking at the curves, though, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that that of the USA, however bad, is not obviously different than those of most countries currently undergoing the epidemic.
Perhaps some think the US should be significantly better than most countries. I'm not really a believer in exceptionalism myself.
What do you base this statement on?
That's to be expected, because deaths lag behind infections by a week or two. [1] and we know the US was a couple of weeks behind Italy and Spain in their infections blowing up.
We'll have to wait until a couple of weeks after peak infections before we can see the true mortality rate in any given region/country.
[1] https://miro.medium.com/max/9350/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.pn...
Per-population mortality rate is also closely tracking Germany rather than Italy on Spain, beats UK by being less than half of theirs.
Australia — 0.46%
Germany — 0.6%
Russia — 0.13%
South Korea — 1.41%
US — 1.43%
Probably more useful is to watch the death count. Even there, though, many will not necessarily be correctly attributed to the virus, given that hotspots can be overwhelmed and politics in general.
That may be a marginally interesting data point, but it’s meaningless without saying the number by population.
“Global epicentre of pandemic”? C’mon.