NZ also has easily enforceable border control (surrounded by the Pacific ocean) which is already strict (their economy is so reliant on agriculture exports.)
They should come out of this better than most.
Germany locked down after almost 100 deaths (and 20,000 cases.)
NZ locked down as soon as community transmission was detected (2 cases out of 50 total were untraceable.) No deaths yet.
We've had self isolation for people coming in from overseas in place for a few weeks and as soon as that progressed to community transmission we've locked down. We had 50 cases where 2 could not be traced back to international travel. We're now at 200 cases (as of yesterday) and still no deaths.
I think hindsight is always 20/20 and I think NZ has done the right thing in appropriate timelines given what we knew at the time.
We are fortunate that we are a remote island in the south pacific that makes it easier for us to close borders and contain this much easier than other countries can.
We could not have rolled better starting stats to have:
1) A giant moat around us.
2) Only really four international airports (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Queenstown).
3) All these are destination airports (as opposed to transit hubs where Singapore or Heathrow are classic examples).
I flew through Asia when SARS was in full swing and just now in February-March (just my luck) and have gone through borders where this was taken seriously earlier. NZs earlier "additional border controls" were pathetic. When I returned in mid March there was:
1) No thermal screening of passengers.
2) No health form to fill in.
3) Australian, Singapore and US!? passports were allowed to use the e-gates.
4) No additional cleaning of high risk surfaces.
5) No protective measures for the customs and border staff.
6) The only extra measure was a tiny pamphlet being handed out which essentially said: "If you feel sick, please ring healthline or a GP and tell them you have travelled."
Instead when I landed on 13th March:
1) I got a pamphlet handed to me which most passengers ignored and threw away
2) Had to touch the e-gates (which had no evidence of cleaning) that were touched by hundreds of other travellers
3) Could not wash my hands properly because soap ran out in a couple of the bathrooms
4) For extra points I could have jumped on a airport to city centre bus full of tourists from Europe (I got picked up instead).
and then they announced with a 48 hour warning that the border was shutting and then planes were packed coming in as people tried to "beat the compulsary quarantine".
The border should have been shut before the first case was detected here.
edit - additional new lines and a sentence
There would have been limited community support for closing the border prior to the first case. It was a distant problem while running rampant across Asia, even more-so as it decimated Europe.
Not saying it's a wrong choice, but it's not so obvious to me that it's the right thing to do at this stage. They still have time to try less drastic measures. Especially given their enforceable borders, low density, and the experience available from other countries.
Also I'd like to hear about the post-lockdown strategy. For instance, my country is planning to be in lockdown for 6 weeks. But what will be different in 6 weeks? we'll probably still have some cases here and there. Following the same logic as NZ, we should go in lockdown again (or never leave it, and close our borders until there are no more cases in the world, or a cure)
It seems a better strategy would be to have a moderate lockdown which helps regulating the flow of infection so that the healthcare system is not overflowed, and so that we can gradually reach herd immunity.
They called the lockdown as soon as the first community transmission case was detected.
Reference please (did you just make this number up?)
For there to be 1024 cases in the community, 20 days ago there were 128 cases. Of those, between 5 and 20 would be hospitalised by now.
I personally trust NZ has (a) tested hospitalised cases, (b) been honest in reporting cases, and (c) has been testing their contacts.
One million kiwis live overseas (population left 5 million). So we have a huge number of returning kiwis that have the virus (that’s where the 200 comes from).
Of course, NZ believes there is community transmission, that is why they have acted immediately on detection.
They have closed down flights and roads, so if one town gets infected, people can’t leave and spread infection (a la Italy). Edit: They are actively teaching the concept of your social “bubble” which is a brilliant word and a critical thing everyone needs to know. We are still missing bandannas (it’s a respiratory disease - reduction in R0 helps massively), and we are still overplaying washing hands (this isn’t measles).
At least for Vietnam, every single one of their new cases for the past week or so have been international travelers arriving back home.
I'd expect NZ to see a big jump in cases as well.