Coronavirus may already have infected half of UK population – Oxford study

ft.com

9 points·FartyMcFarter··6 comments

Link to the actual study: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Mod...

The title is massive clickbait. The study models various possible parameters for the disease and fits them to UK and Italian cases to try and infer a mortality rate.

We already have a very solid mortality rate estimate from South Korea(0.6%), where they likely managed to test everyone that actually had the virus.

If that's the 'true' mortality rate, then the UK can expect 5-10% of the population to have the virus now(according to this model, which is bad).

The Faroe Islands have tested about 4.7% of their population and found 122 infected (0.23% of population).

Similarly Iceland has tested about 2.9% of their population (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) and found 648 (0.18% of pop). A study from Iceland is expected in the Lancet soon.

Those are (as far as I’m aware) current infections. The test for viral RNA will only be positive with an acute infection, and not otherwise. Therefore previously infected and recovered cases will not show up.

Correct, current infections.

Why is a paywall more important than disseminating information?

Do journalists or humanitarians get any say in how these businesses are run?

Try this: https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea0557...

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