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Comment by usaar333 | Hacker News Reader

That rate is highly unlikely to hold. There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so.

FWIW, at this point, it looks like NYC is going to take a huge hit and the other outbreaks (Seattle, California) will look mild comparitively.

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Washington state doesn't have a statewide lockdown, I don't know if even Seattle has a lockdown. California is doing the best but there are still crowds defying the lockdown at beaches and parks. Just as much, grocery stores are open as usual and even with most people trying to do social distancing, I'm doubtful you're clamping that hard on the infection, unfortunately.

I think the best is that when fatalities spike here in California, we're in better shape to intensify the lockdown.

Washington does as of 5:00 pm PDT today.

I've dug through everything I can find. I'm feeling really stupid at the moment, but I cannot find a confirmation of that 5pm start time, though it does appear to start today and "immediately." It runs through April 6, but could be extended.

Tweet is from 6:50pm: https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1242267557295321090

https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-stay-home-sta...

https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/proclamation...

That’s when the announcement of it was broadcast, which is why I used that time.

Thanks.

The measures that have in place in both states have drastically clamped down on infection rates - the growth in WA is barely above linear at this point (and remember you are always looking 10 days backward). CA is also sub-exponential. Look at the data (in the presence of high testing):

https://covid-19.direct/state/WA

If you look at thermometer data (less accurate, but a good predictor), there's little problem going forward in either state. (but serious problems in the NY metro area):

https://healthweather.us/

To my eyes, California just looks slower exponential and Washington is ambiguous. A few days of non-growth can be randomness or reporting problems.

But I hope you're right! We all need to do our parts.

I'd also note that things are getting "hot" in other states and each has it's problems.

At least some of WA's lower numbers recently were due to fewer tests performed.

> There's enough stay in place restrictions in effect to drive it down after about a week or so.

Why do you think that?

I have no strong opinion but I really hope that the fact that the US is not dense, and people are not very tactile, compared to European cities will help us.

Deaths lag measures by more than that. We might see Washington’s measures kicking in strong by then but NY will probably be some time.

Yes, death lags and testing is inaccurate. We're flying blind.

I wonder. Willing to admit incorrect if parent prediction proves true? Or pivot if not to a new supposition and declare victory? (I'd say 3.5 weeks myself.)

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