Wonder what degree of revisionism the 'it is just a flu' crowd will engage in where they are on the record.
Wonder what degree of revisionism the 'it is just a flu' crowd will engage in where they are on the record.
But an actual doubling, measured by the number of people who can't breathe in a hospital currently takes 3-4 days.
Not that I think the number of cases is grossly overstated, but Italy lists deaths from coronavirus if the patient dies for ANY reason while they are afflicted by the coronavirus. This would be the source of some "fudging" of the numbers.
One country (Germany, I think?) doesn't or wasn't including people who weren't tested before dying, so had a really low rate.
This is far from over.
Please stop this ranking nonsense. It is not helping in anyway. If we want to assess how effective each country will fare - look no further than totalitarian and authoritarian states. Also, wait for all of this to be over with and then we can assess who did better and who did worse. Amidst the crisis, I am frankly concerned about comments such as this.
Ranking by cases/capita (per 1M)
1. Iceland: 978
2. Switzerland: 864
3. Spain: 612
4. Norway: 417
5. Austria: 396
6. Germany: 297
7. Belgium: 293
8. Iran: 258
9. France: 245
10. Netherlands: 245
11. Denmark: 241
12. Sweden: 191
13. Ireland: 183
14. S Korea: 174
15. Portugal: 157
16. USA: 98
Ignoring smaller countries such as Estonia, Vatican City, etc Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Even the aforementioned ranking is useless because the onset is staggered. It is like taking a slice of a timeseries data in the middle of highest rates of changes and saying "Here! Look. We have some definitive answers."
I am in no way opposed to spreading the message to folks in deep south states who are largely ignoring this crisis. But using misleading data to alarm them is not the right way to go about this. The press should be doing their job of communicating what exactly is going on in hospitals, pressuring leaders of the states to consider the warnings, and generally taking an objective, scientific approach in informing the public.
Any country with sufficient testing that's managed to bring the growth rate below exponential is worth an enormous amount of attention, because we seem to have many countries who have taken action yet failed to stop exponential growth.
I am all for taking a critical look at American systems and their effectiveness of the response, but the ranking by the case numbers is naive, misleading and unproductive.
And so ranking countries by size of outbreak seems reasonable to me.
Edit: Here you go, here's one corrected for day of 100th case.
- Amount of testing
- Sampling process of testing - i.e. Policies that govern whether someone should be tested or not. Each country has their own policy.
- Demographics, especially age
- Still shows total cases, should be cases/capita
- Some effects of weather/humidity
Remember the virus has an incubation period of around 2 weeks. China's numbers appeared to be increasing exponentially for 2 weeks after the lockdown, but those were mostly people infected before the lockdown.
All of that taken together translates into people simply ignoring the danger and continuing their life making things much worse in the long run.
Viruses don't have legs, they need people to transport them. And as long as we're willing it gets spread around and some people will die. If rankings like these send the message loud and clear that this also concerns you then I'm all for the rankings, even if they are a bs statistic without taking into account the total population size. People find it much easier to relate to 5000 people dead than they do to 2000 people per million infected.
Slam governments, take it up on the streets to address issues after this pandemic is over.
That doesn't make any sense. First, it's not desirable in any way for the US to be near the top of that list. That's a per capita list (for obvious reasons it's better for small nations to dominate that list) and the US has a spread out and very low population density compared to most nations in eg Europe. Having a high population nation doesn't inherently correlate to being near the top of the per capita infection list.
Population density is not your friend when it comes to a highly infectious virus spreading in the population.
Countries in Europe vs the US on population density:
The Netherlands 12x, Belgium 11x, UK 9x, Germany 7x, Switzerland 6x, Italy 6x, France 4x, Poland 4x, Spain 3x.
The US also has no primate cities, whereas Europe has ~25 of them (hyper population concentration). Most nations in Europe have a primate city that dominates the nation in terms of population, acting as a massive potential infection supercenter.
It's entirely unsurprising that smaller European nations with high population densities vs the US would have higher infection rates per capita.
If you split up the united states into regions, we definitely would not be 16th on the list.
You can already see the narrative of the ignorance club is shifting to "we're doing a good job" - focusing on current nascent actions and completely ignoring the month long head start given to the pandemic in the US by inaction, incompetence, and outright lies (eg masks).
Not that it makes sense to waste energy bickering about these things when there is still a major problem to be addressed, but the point is that the month or two long societal shutdown we're experiencing is best attributed to a failure of our institutions rather than the force of nature.
Just check Elon Musk's twitter apparently
My wife has asthma, and my parents are elderly. I’m middle aged. I’m much more concerned about hurting other people.
That said, flu statistics aren’t great. I’m pretty sure I’ve had the flu, due to severity of illness. But I’ve never been tested for it. I don’t know anyone who has. When people die of pneumonia etc they Aren’t automatically tested for flu.
50 million Americans getting the flu in any given year is pretty typical, although flu season is a couple months longer than a quarter.
Without significant mitigating precautions, which was the context for this discussion, the USA would very likely have more than 100 million Covid-19 infections in the next three months.
Yes, it's technically a logistic process rather than exponential. But there is no pre-existing immunity, so it won't hit the inflection point until it bumps up against the natural limitations. Meaning herd immunity due to a large percentage of potential victims already infected, or limitations in how many people will likely meet a sick person. The latter won't happen without the mitigations I'm talking about.
A third of the population infected seems as reasonable a ball-park guess as any for when the first point would be hit. But I really, really hope that the mitigations prevent this.
We can all wish for the culture, test availability, and competent government that South Korea and Singapore and Taiwan apparently have, but we don’t have those. So their “plan” is effectively a plan to just let millions of people 60+ or with pre-existing conditions die without much effort to save them. It’s not only unconscionable, it’s incredibly stupid. Do they think we’re just going to go back to work and restaurants and on vacation while millions of our loved ones take their last gasps in a converted convention center somewhere? The economy grinds to a halt either way, and there’s no moral or political path forward for what they want to do. Which is why they don’t have the courage to even spell it out, it’s just some magic handwaving about how we must do something different.
And all this against the backdrop of them and people like them downplaying this from the start and putting us in this position.
Why we had to wait until a crisis like this for this to be rendered bare for the wider population?
As I've said countless times before, the West has been on the downward trajectory for a very long time, both as a society, and as state entities.
What I call an "ultrapopulism" has been an ever growing trend in the West since around mid-nineties.
The Western nations are not just weak as societies, and nations, they are diseased (sorry for having to use this word now.)
The reasons for me moving from comfy life in the West to China is not because I so much enjoyed it, but for me having a realisation that this accelerating downward trend will have very real consequences in my lifetime, and that even money alone no longer favours the West.
Yes, China is a patently dysfunctional society. This is what I can say as person whose life and career depends on it, and who actually lived there.
I'd say the "good" performance of Chinese state looks like that only in comparison to catastrophically bad showing from Western nations.
20 year ago, I would've said that what China did after the monumental screw up at the start, would've been an expected level of response from an upstanding Western nation. Now, the West can not do the same what it could've done 20 years ago easily. That's the only message for that particular point.
Is Chinese society a healthy, functioning society? No, but at least critical parts are still coasting on inertia from the time China had half sane political leadership.
Is the West a healthy, functioning society? Some things there work, but the most important, critical parts are failing in broad daylight, and people don't damn care.
I heard even most hardcore communists starting to question Xi's mandate to rule now, and how much such a weak leader is costing them.
What I heard myself was pretty much a question "What if it was a war?"
Were Xi to hide in a bunker when the military can't do anything without his explicit approval, they would've been screwed.
I'd say that even overt corruption is not necessarily a white or black determinator on the overall health of the institute of government.
South Korea is not only known for "Samsung bribing *," but also countless successful cases of corruption prosecution, including 2 Samsung CEOs in a row going to real jail.
In overall, a health on the very top of society stems from strength at the bottom.
I am actively trying to promote work from home options and mostly being ignored.
I am actively trying to talk about home health care options. It's been extremely controversial, so I am reluctant to push too hard.
There's a lot of disinterest or active blow back against any attempt at a grass roots movement in the absence of sufficient leadership from the top.
Given how powerful America is, it's not unreasonable for the world at large to be concerned.
I told several friends about your advice to prop up your head and back in bed when feeling shortness of breath.
Cautiously I also recommend tonic water for a cough - not because of a medical benefit, but because the bitterness makes sputum in my mouth and that soothed my sore throat. Also wasabi for a blocked nose. Normally I think cough medicine would be better, but I know that pharmacies are overloaded right now. I also think the placebo effect is very real - doing something positive might help, instead of just sitting and worrying.
Tonic water absolutely has a medical history. It's not hard at all to find that out by reading the label and doing a little online research.
It makes me extremely uncomfortable for you to talk about tonic water for a very long list of reasons.
Because it contains an actual for serious drug -- quinine -- you can get serious side effects from overusing it. These include vision problems, headache and nausea similar to migraines. IIRC, you can cause yourself permanent vision problems.
Because it's a powerful alkaloid, overuse can cause your stomach to become too alkaline. This can cause you to be unable to digest food and can result in vomiting.
The name "tonic water" is medical in origin. The bitter flavor you speak of was common to a class of medicinal herbs typically referred to as "bitters."
Quinine is a drug related to the drug currently being tested as a possible treatment for covid19: Chloroquine. So casual and uniformed use of it could create resistance in the virus, making actual medical treatment less effective in the future.
I highly recommend you keep a journal and actually read up on anything you are finding personally helpful.
I'm not here trying to tell people what to do with home remedies for casual use. My consistent framing has been "If the shit really hits the fan and doctors have nothing for you, there are other options that may make sense to gamble on if your options are take a chance or die."
I know a helluva lot about medical stuff. My mother wanted to be a doctor and she personally changed the practices of two cancer clinics when she kept my dad alive after they wrote him off for dead. I have another relative who works at the CDC and has for years.
I've been surrounded by medically knowledgeable people my entire life. I also absolutely don't hawk home remedies.
I've spent a lot of years trying to figure out if there is any way to effectively share what I know about CF and other health issues to either be helpful or to somehow get actual medical professionals and scientists to do studies.
I would love to finally have credibility and be taken seriously in the world and have actual respect.
And it matters vastly less to me than avoiding potential harm to potentially millions of people because I'm cute and charismatic and people want to be my fwend and it goes amazingly bizarre places and always has.
I know you mean well. I know you think I'm pathetic and sad and a social outcast and a poor person and you think you are doing something nice by publicly patting me on the head.
I absolutely don't see it that way. I'm extremely uncomfortable with you and other people here clearly desiring some kind of feel good emotional attachment to me personally as your primary goal of engaging me, very much at the expense of best practices for disseminating medically useful information.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonic_water
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gin_and_tonic
https://flaviar.com/blog/gin-tonic-history
http://activehistory.ca/2012/08/gin-and-tonic-a-short-histor...
I've done the math. I know how much tonic water you need to drink to be roughly equivalent to being prescribed quinine as a drug for medical use.
It's a lot, but not so much that you can't consume that much in a single day. I'm not posting the figures I remember here because I'm not interested in encouraging people to do something like that.
Please refrain from providing advice to people if you're not in the position to do so unless you're a medical doctor. It sounds good hearted but this is exactly the kind of things we shouldn't be perpetuating. You can cause inadvertent loss of life in worst case.
My parents are forwarding all kinds of shit from social media from fake vaccine news to completely insane home remedies such as going to a sauna when you have fever to "kill the virus". I am not suggesting you're doing this, but just to illustrate extreme case of misinformation.
I have a form of cystic fibrosis, as does my 32 year old son who still lives with me. I left all the CF lists years ago because people with CF live in terror and mostly don't want to take chances on trying anything not prescribed by a doctor, even though they are facing certain death.
Doctors don't know how to fix them. When I was diagnosed in 2001, life expectancy in the US was age 36.
Like anyone who has CF or who has a loved one with CF, I know quite a lot about germ control and daily home management of potentially deadly lung problems. Unlike most people with CF, I'm currently drug free. My condition is managed with diet and lifestyle.
I think it's outright irresponsible to say nothing at all in cases where I know a thing and no one else is speaking up, even though I surely an not the only person who knows X. I've mostly spoken up to say, essentially, "If there aren't enough ventilators to go around, airway clearance techniques have been around forever and some of them are non invasive and don't require mechanical intervention. You may still have options, even if the worst comes to pass, the medical system is overloaded and you are trying to survive a deadline epidemic while locked down at home."
If you want to see my past remarks, I've added the link to that discussion to my profile. I'm disinclined to do too much cage rattling on HN in discussion.
I'm currently working on developing a blog in hopes of putting together useful information about best practices for simply avoiding germs in day-to-day life.
I think I know a lot of useful information. I don't think I'm behaving irresponsibly.
I'm still trying to sort out for myself what I think works going forward. I don't think there's anyone on the planet who can tell me what that is.
If you want to help, volunteer in a hospital.
- Spread information about hygiene, CDC recommendations on how to prevent spread of Coronavirus and reiterate/ephasize the importance of washing hands/cleaning public spaces.
- Donate money to medical research, who knows, some of these home remedies may be useful. But not without getting the research done first.
You don't see the danger of providing medical advise to others? I've been wrong many times of something that I thought was intuitive to me but ultimately there was a "oh..." moment when I saw experimental results or some concrete evidence.
There is also a network effect - you say X to person Y. Person Y tells X to 10 other friends who then tell 1000 other people. The misinformation that started from you could potentially affect a lot of people and then you start having deep thoughts such as - I tested X on myself and it worked. But now 100,000 people are doing it - is it safe?
This is why you should stop from providing medical advice to others. I am saying this with respect to you and your earnest intentions from heart.
I often have insufficient money for food. Yet, we are still alive.
I respect your genuine and valid concerns about giving advice in situations where you don't know what you are talking about. Trying to give me advice to do things like volunteer in a hospital or donate money I don't have falls in that category.
Maybe take a few minutes to at least look up cystic fibrosis before commenting further about what you think I should be doing.
The whole point of a fever is that the higher temperature harms the disease organism more than the host organism. It is in fact to "kill the virus".
The sauna supports that. The same goes for anything else that would enable the fever of course. You could instead eat hot soup, wear a jacket, or adjust your thermostat.
Going the other way, cooling yourself to suppress a fever, blocks a natural response to infectious disease. Don't do that unless your body has overshot the proper fever temperature by a long ways, to the point that you are at risk of brain damage.
Netherlands: TOTAL CORONAVIRUS CASES QUADRUPLE IN A WEEK TO 4,204; DEATH TOLL REACHES 179
https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/22/total-coronavirus-cases-quadru...
All this seems like a much bigger problem than the virus itself. Our system is incapable of being efficient, effective or proactive.
That isn't really true. Some viruses are more susceptible to vaccination than others but all have one thing in common: about 12-18 months between the first confirmed sighting of a virus and the time to make a vaccine if one is possible. And for plenty of Viruses we have not been able to make a vaccine and some of those are coronaviruses.
We need to make "Support our Healthcare Workers" a bigger part of the messaging strategy. They are on the front lines of this battle, and when we fail to implement control measures, we are putting their lives at risk.
1. Gov. Cuomo announces trial of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to start in NY
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-ny-gov-cuomo-say...
2. CDC: Healthcare workers OK to use homemade masks (bandana,scarf) as last resort.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2020/03/20/calling-all-...
“Healthcare personnel (HCP) use of homemade masks:
In settings where facemasks are not available, HCP might use homemade masks (e.g., bandana, scarf) for care of patients with COVID-19 as a last resort. However, homemade masks are not considered PPE, since their capability to protect HCP is unknown. Caution should be exercised when considering this option. Homemade masks should ideally be used in combination with a face shield that covers the entire front (that extends to the chin or below) and sides of the face.”