After that, the world reverts back to what it was doing.
My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy. It's more like a slow moving natural disaster.
I'll admit I don't feel super confident that this is how things work. Happy to be corrected!
If you're well off now you'll be fine. If you're decently off in a wealthy country you'll be fine too. If you're one of the precariously employed and healthcare-less workers in a country like the US you will suffer and might die. If you are a precariously employed person in a poor country you'll watch many friends and family die.
Think what happens in Italy, a country with one of the best healthcare systems in the world, hitting South Sudan. Don't confuse your reality with how it will hit the rest of the world.
But I was only trying to think about the economic consequences for the survivors, after whatever is to come is over.
That may be the least prepared country for it.
Unfortunately, this is not at all true. There is a tremendous amount of debt in the system and we are on the precipice of a credit crisis that could wipe out a significant chunk of the global economy.
I only meant that the virus event doesn't add any fundamental flaw.
This is why many people are arguing for (and some countries have instituted) debt and rent cancellation for this period of time. That helps avoid tipping the scale and crushing a large portion of the population under the mountains of debt they already have. The US is also quite unique (in the worst possible way) in the massive amounts of medical and student loan debt that folks are saddled with.
[1]: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/most-americans-dont-have-the...
If many countries see their currency completely failing, they may be forced to look for radical changes. Which could mean some countries decide they must try to move away from the dollar as reserve. And that's the type of thing that could lead to a global war.
So I really, really hope that people are aware that money needs to work for everyone and act accordingly.
Personally I believe that there are fundamental structural issues with the current system, and it needs an upgrade to correct those issues and to be much more technologically sophisticated. The new system must also have sustainability as one of its core tenets.
What I think will happen is more countries crashing and burning, followed by half-assed sovereign debt relief. Whether we actually get to a world war, who knows.
I also think 4 months is very optimistic, I bet things aren't "normal" for over a year.
In fact, there is a massive global debt problem that has been building for many decades.