Generally, in markets that were part bearish (like the 80s), I made very good returns, between 10 % and 30 % above the index. As a very simple rule, after 2 days of a falling index, sell for exactly 1 day. This works mainly because there are enough consecutive 3 days of a falling index. However, if the market trend is overwhelmingly bullish, that does not work anymore, because there are not enough triplets of falling numbers. If it was possible to differentiate the two, I guess it would be possible to reliably beat the index. But of course that is the tricky part ... You cannot be better then the index in rising markets, but you could be better in falling markets.