What could individuals have done to have predicted this crisis?

2 points·topaztee··3 comments

Hindsight is 20/20. What mental models/questions could we periodically ask ourselves to predict these kinds of crisises?

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Q: Will the SARS epidemy of 2002-2003 get repeated? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

A: Yes

Someone said that one of the reasons that Taiwan has controlled the epidemy is that they are preparing for SARS2 since 2002-2003. (And it is an island, that reduce the entry points.)

So, at the moment we've got a virus spreading, not even particularly vile (which is of course not an excuse not to contain it etc.). Flu-like virues is something people are fairly familiar with, it's impressive how we've got the genome sequences and strains classified so fast. However, some people have warned/predicted that would happen, you could dismiss this as a hindsight, but still, pandemics are something people can foresee and know how to deal with.

Even more insteresting question, IMO is: how do we prepare for some event we can't even think of?

Is there a good framework for brainstorming and thinking about potential events threatening the whole civilization? Any low hanging fruits (in terms of preparedness and knowledge)?

"how do we prepare for some event we can't even think of?" this question is much better phrased & where my intention for this thread lies.

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