would you mind elaborating? because i find it extremely difficult how one could hold such an optimistic and apparent naive opinion.
from where i sit, this crisis is showing the exact opposite. there is very little international communication and cooperation, and even internal to countries, like in the u.s., there is very little communication and cooperation. aside from a few outliers, the while thing has just been wave after wave of delayed and reactive actions that were underprepared to begin with.
people keep thinking we'll solve this with technology (the typical human way), but what would have been better is if everyone simply communicated, listened, and cooperated.
the human race could not face a dumber enemy. think about it. if everyone on earth just sat still for a couple of weeks, this thing would just vanish. can you imagine a more simple foe? and yet, this thing is crippling econmies, healthcare, and more.
Moved to Germany in 2011 and still can’t work out the whole insurance thing (and don’t understand German enough to read and figure those nuances)
The insurance system is split in two almost separate systems. One for everybody, the public health insurance system, where you can choose and switch between a range of public insurers. You must have health insurance in Germany. E.g. you cannot spend a semester as an exchange student without health insurance. If you earn above a certain amount per year, you are assumed to be able to provide for your own health insurance. You can opt-out of public health insurance and get a private one. They are very competitevly priced for young and healthy individuals. And they usually have way wider coverage. But you cannot go back after a certain age. So it is a risk, and there have been insurers that raised the cost of private insurance for elderly people by multiple hundred percents. On the other hand, the cost of public health insurances depends on your income and not on your health. If you are unemployed and you show that you try to get a job, your public health insurance is free as well. And children are free, if both their parents are in public health insurance. Then, there are private insurance policies that add on top of public health insurance coverage. Most people are in the public health insurance system in Germany.
My insurance broker said that the price I pay now should cover future payments and increases are only allowed if there are some overall increases to the treatment options. ie new more expensive treatments become available... so cost can increase but within certain boundaries. Was I misguided on that one?
If you are unemployed or earn below a certain treshold, you get a monthly stipend to pay for basic insurance.
In the end, I can choose where to get my insurance from, but "basic insurance" is the same price everywhere and if I lose my job or I have very little income, I am guarenteed to get that stipend to help pay for it.
Basic insurance is roughly ~100 euros/month.
I would call the system pretty robust, as you cannot be uninsured. From personal experience: Having my kids insured under my name, under my wife's name when I earned less than her, being insured under my wife during a certain time of a sabbatical, insured through unemployment and now as an entrepreneur I never changed insurance provider. Only the status changed.
Interesting detail, even the public health insurance sector is run by commercial insurance companies. The minimum plans are defined by the state. Regardless of how many people are insured under your name, premiums don't change and stay at a certain percentage of your salary. Again, slight differences between providers but usually around 15 or so percent. Currently I pay much less, as there is no revenue yet.
Also nice, premiums don't change with previous sickness and preexisting conditions. Also 6 weeks of paid sick leave per sickness, resets for each sickness after a certain number of months (again, don't ask the exact number).
One important insurance to add is continued salary after the six weeks are over. Costs close to nothing when done early and can save you. Non serious things tend to be over well within 6 weeks. But serious ones can take considerably longer. And the last thing you want is money problems the. I spend 6 months on sick leave once, didn't have to worry about my job nor money. Was a nice thing.
Mass layoffs already, leading to mass loss of health insurance, and bills for COVID treatment already surfacing in the many thousands of dollars.
If people start to have trouble putting food on the table, shit could get ugly real fast.
If I were laid-off, I would receive a maximum of $1600/mo from unemployment in my state for 6 months.
So, the trade-off is either COBRA or mortgage payment.
I doubt the US medical system will get better in the short term.
"I find it deeply worrying that people started to buy guns" . . . Look at history, what do you expect when you have 20% or more of the lowest tier of the working population laid off for months or more (60 million people) . . . crime will definitely increase and there won't be adequate police to control it. It could get real bad - - real fast. Only liberal Dems want to take away all our guns and then risk our families to be raped, robbed and plundered . . . buying guns and ammo and 99% a defensive, preparatory, and protective reaction - - not offensive. It is completely within the rights of Americans to protect their families and their property from criminals.
> the while thing has just been wave after wave of delayed and reactive actions that were underprepared to begin with.
I do agree the US has been slow to ramp up, but that is quickly changing. Although, I would once again offer up to ignore Trump and watch the governors. They have been acting quickly and decisively.
Underprepared with respect to supplies is always easy to say in hindsight because now we know the war we are fighting. There is a saying that armies are always tooled to fight the last war. Until you know what the next war will be, it's impossible to fully prepare.
> if everyone on earth just sat still for a couple of weeks, this thing would just vanish.
IMO, that is naive and optimistic. The problem, for lack of a better word, is that the large majority of cases (80-90%?) are mild. For many, it's mild enough that they would have not deviated from their normal routine. Once this thing escaped China, and definitely once it got out of SEA, it was going to be incredibly hard to stomp out without herd immunity either through infection or vaccine.
I share your optimism, but I don't think this bit helps your argument. Podcasts in particular do not scream "credibility"
Except when they have on doctors who are experts on viral disease. For example: https://peterattiamd.com/category/podcast/
Even more dismaying is the refusal to lift sanctions on Iran. Even a narrowly crafted exception to the sanctions for supplies needed to combat the onslaught of the virus would be good but so far nothing. This is according to what I have read this far and if this is in error, I would be happy to be shown that.
https://twitter.com/ap/status/1241658649224925184?s=21
Aid is the only way to help Iran.
Also, let me say that I'm not saying it's all rainbows and butterflies out there. I just think about all the things that were going to end humankind in my lifetime alone, yet here we are arguably in the best position we have ever been to fight something like this. As a kid we were genuinely afraid of nuclear war. Then there was the HIV epidemic. Y2K, tech bubble busting, 2008 financial crisis, and all the smaller things in between I'm forgetting about.
I look out and see the people on ground sharing information, being incredibly cooperative, and trying to stabilize their situation so then they can effectively help others. That is why I'm optimistic we'll work through this.
A pace that is constantly hindered by wrong/misleading statements made by Trump. You cannot pretend he is not actively making their jobs harder and thus putting us all in more danger.
> Although, I would once again offer up to ignore Trump and watch the governors. They have been acting quickly and decisively.
Not all of the governors have and that is in part because they themselves or their constituents will do just about anything Trump says and/or anything to avoid his ire. We still, to this day, have people parroting things from Trump/Fox about how it's just the flu, it's not bad if you are young, vacinee is right around the corner, we already have drugs to fight this, etc. That is because of one man caring more about his reelection/markets than the people of the United States. Period.
His comments have been and continue to be extremely detrimental to fighting COVID-19. Even now, he is more concerned with re-writing history ("I always took this seriously") and downplaying the threat suggesting we don't have to worry because we already have a vaccine in testing (without saying it's ~14mo out) and by talking about the malaria drugs as if they are cures (we still have to test). Look at how they spend insane amounts of time in press briefings: attacking the press, talking about how the markets will boom after this, repeatedly having the POTUS make false/misleading statements that have to be corrected, and having almost every official start by "I'd like to thank Trump for his leadership...".
> Underprepared with respect to supplies is always easy to say in hindsight because now we know the war we are fighting. There is a saying that armies are always tooled to fight the last war. Until you know what the next war will be, it's impossible to fully prepare.
That's just not true though. They knew about this as early as Jan 3rd and waited months before doing anything substantial, they had a team designed to spearhead the fight against a virus like this and they disbanded it, they had a simulation of a virus outbreak just last year and failed spectacularly but decided to make zero changes.
One more thing to leave you with, /yesterday/ he suggested the reuse n95 masks and just clean them with "very good liquids". And 2-3 days ago he gave the /wrong/ set of symptoms for COVID-19. To ignore "Trump/Politics" is pretty naive as it's not like the experts are in control, he is actively making the situation worse.
not at all. there are plenty of things wrong beyond him, and i have personally been dealing with the outbreak for months. i don't think you or most understand how some of the government's inaction has truly got us to where we are today and has been harmful. everyone complaining about a less than week long "quarantine" hasn't dealt with this for two months. that being said, one can also not ignore trump and the sycophantic government. he is blatantly misleading people and is ridiculing china for no reason. it's childish and petulent and extremely harmful in the long. we have a senator that says "gag and vote for it anyway" to provide support for people. that tells you the sentiment. and these are things they say in public! it amounts to treason in my book. you cannot ignore the massive narcissitic nature of our "leaders".
> IMO, that is naive and optimistic.
it was hyperbole, although it does have a ring of truth to it. the point is that our enemy is not complex, and as with most things, the true enemy is ourselves. humans laud ourselves for being above animals and our ability to predict the future. however, we don't. we have very short term views and rarely deal with something unless it is right on our doorstep. i don't care about the reaction afterward. it isn't good enough to be this way.
and the idea is that there are far deeper problems than just dealing with and reacting to viral outbreaks when they happen. a more organized society could start preventing or reducing the frequency of the outbreaks in the first place, although i doubt we ever get there.
this is a good article: http://m.nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the...
Indeed. The EU didn't really mind about Italy's problems and potential economic unease until it started affecting other european countries too.
If you assume the european union being based, fundamentally, on cooperation then that really make you question the whole thing.
I've become more pessimistic about the human race to work together to solve problems now. So much jingoism around me, and around in the news. I understand that's not everyone, but to be it seems like it's every country for themselves.
Actually that in itself would cripple economies, despite being a really good idea (sitting still for a while I mean).
The whole world is operating under an economic paradigm that requires infinite growth forever; the model is decoupled from reality. If we all sat still for a couple weeks, everyone would be better off, but the economy would tank. Better get back to work!
At this point the media is in an abusive relationship with their audience, sitting around all day trying to think how they can scare them, leading to deeply dishonest headlines like this
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/nigeria-r...
Not true. The west coast one is deploying soon, but the east coast one was undergoing repairs at the time and is weeks away from deployment.
The Mercy is also already in LA.
I haven't noticed any extra amount of cooperation though between countries, more so than the usual.
So back to your "people on the ground" comment. I totally agree. It's the bottom up Americanism that will get us through this, as usual. It reminds me of the famous Abba Eban quote often misattributed to Churchill, "Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing — After Exhausting All the Alternatives". This totally holds true right now, and likely always will.
The really amazing thing is going to be three American companies proving through clinical trials in the next 6-8 months that we invented a new technology (genetic-based vaccines) that produced a functional vaccine by the end of the year (Moderna), that we have a potent anti-viral compound ready to use in two months (Giliad), and antibody therapy ready 8 months (Regeneron). That's nuts. If we go through the motions this time, we will be prepared to dramatically increase the speed of approvals and testing when the the next viral pandemic comes.
Do you have any sources/links for this? I've struggled to find credible info.
But now that I look more closely, I can't find source data. Let me know if you find any more details.
There are also some French patients being treated across the border, in both Switzerland and Germany.
I am 100% sure, if this didn't reach France, was an Italy/Spanish problem, the EU wouldn't give a shit about it and do nothing.
China has a retrospective of three months and has stabilized the situation. They know what they are facing and the resources needed, and have even started to dismantle the temporary hospitals they set up in January.
What can the individual European countries offer? They, like the Americans, have outsourced their production to China. Any masks, nurses or respirators they have, they will need themselves. They can offer 'money', which may not buy more masks but can help against the economic impacts.
And this is what is happening. The EU has both released monetary aids, and indicated that fiscal restraint rules will be waived.
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/covid-19-baden-wuerttemberg-w...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cuba/c...
Consider that the first cases in Rome were confirmed on January 31 to my knowledge. We are less than 2 months in.
Also this news about China providing aid whereas the EU refused to do so is probably one in a long chain of fake news promoted by Russia, meant to destabilize EU. Shame on you for spreading it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinf...
Which makes propaganda so much more powerful.
The criticism isn’t, I don’t think, that the EU is being uncommonly cruel or heartless. It’s just that the EU isn’t a union. When the chips are down, when there’s some crisis that actually matters, other countries in the EU won’t make sacrifices for your sake. Which is fine, there’s no reason a trade organization shouldn’t have a flag or declare itself to be a single entity in economic rankings, but it means members need to be careful about how dependent they allow themselves to become.
The exchange was mutual.
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What is fake is the way this story is portrayed, i.e. the EU does nothing, provides no aid, whereas look at China and Russia, our would be saviors.
Never mind that Chinese authorities lacked transparency, censored whistle blowers, were late to admit the problems of human to human transmissions and allowed millions of people to fly out of Wuhan to all corners of the world, thousands of them being infected, ultimately this early inaction being in part responsible for the pandemic.
I see China's efforts of late and I appreciate them, in the end we're all human, we all make mistakes and this is a time for all of us to work together. But that's NOT the tone set by such posts, or the intent.
My Facebook feed is filled with fake news that is clearly targeted at destabilizing the EU, a crisis like this being the perfect opportunity and my tolerance for it is really low.
Based on what?
What I see is the same scenario play out over and over again, from one country to another, delayed by a week, or two, or three, with most of them making the same mistakes that their predecessors made.
Nobody in the West lifted a finger to prepare themselves until mid-February. We didn't jump-start mask production. We didn't start building hospitals. We didn't start building ventilators.
If this is what the world's reaction to global crisis is going to be like, my sole reassurance is that I'll likely be dead before the worst of climate change hits.
At least the states and cities are taking over leadership where the federal level has failed.
* A particular politician prioritizing low numbers (to look good) over actual infection reduction
* A particular government not issuing orders for needed equipment - we still haven't placed orders and handed money to for-profit ventilator manufacturers, so they can't afford to just manufacture more
* A particular government failing to fund ongoing mask manufacturing to guarantee a stockpile in advance for pandemics despite being advised to do so, as a result manufacturers had to cut staff and lower capacity
* For-profit hospitals being on the verge of running out of money due to treatment for uninsured patients not being funded
* Governments having to contemplate sending out massive checks to citizens and/or provide financial assistance in exchange for employers not laying off all their staff
* Price gouging for emergency essentials like masks and hand sanitizer, forcing local governments and marketplaces to act aggressively to punish it
* Government officials delaying necessary containment measures like closing beaches or banning gatherings as an attempt to preserve local businesses at the expense of public health
* Cruise ships... just cruise ships in general. The idea that they are still operational as floating incubators for hundreds of new cases is just obscene.
* COVID-19 spreading more rapidly among the elderly in WA because care home workers have to work multiple jobs to pay rent, resulting in them taking it between care homes
Other less-capitalist nations are still struggling with COVID-19 but capitalist responses to it have so far been wildly insufficient.
When those of us who survive will look back at it, they won't be able to ignore the fact that sending police to beat up people at a few mass gathering on beaches and streets, and then putting military out to enforce quarantine measures, would result in exponentially less loss of life and damage to the economy.
We've been looking at deploying the military too, which at the very least is going to increase tensions and potentially lead to unrest.
I mourn the potential damage to democracy almost as much as I mourn the lives lost because democracy being severely damaged by this incident will hurt future generations.
Survivors will look back at how badly the West handled the pandemic and vote authoritarians in willingly. And it will be fully justified at that moment. The danger being, of course, that authoritarianism is hard to root out and gets worse over time.
Because it will be hard to deny that a faster, stronger reaction and a few beatings here and there would've spared a lot of future suffering and loss of life. You won't be able to say with a straight face that letting idiots do their idiocy is a small price to pay for freedom.
To be clear: I don't like the authoritarian future I predict. But I would love to see military on the streets right fucking now, instead of reading every single day a story about some idiot breaking quarantine to run some errands, and in process shutting down a store, a clinic or a hospital ward.
I reckon our society will be in for majors discussion in who takes the rewards and who is critically important.
Vietnam: it's gone exponential, so no. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_V...
Cuba: too early to tell.
South Korea: looks to be under control, despite having patient 31 who is the worst super spreader of covid-19 on the planet. They are a capitalist economy.
Taiwan: a capitalist country that looked to have it under control early (like Vietnam) but it now seems to have escaped and gone exponential.
So far I'd say whether a country has got it under control depended on a whether a few key individuals in power decided to enact expensive decisive and control measures immediately. (Of course in hindsight they weren't expensive compared to what was to come, but it took a lot of balls to do it nonetheless.)
The rest of us (including the USA) had to wait until most of civil society understood the risk and took action. I think that's happening on a large scale in every democratic capitalist nation now. Even if you have a Trump in power, the forces that unleashes are irresistible - everyone moves as a group to protect themselves. A hallmark of capitalist economies is they are very good at self organising. Those same forces aren't so irresistible in a non-capitalist non-democratic country, and they aren't so practised at self organisation.
We now have a benchmark for how fast that happens in the internet age. Apparently in one month you can go from zero to the bulk of population on the same page, providing the facts are reasonably clear. (The highly infectious nature of SARS-Cov-2 was pretty clear from the start. The implications of what that meant were also clear to those who understood the math - but most had to learn and that takes time.)
I find that speed kinda amazing, and it's a blessing bestowed on us by the Internet.