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Comment by _9ijd | Hacker News Reader

I’m here in japan and have been trying to find an answer to this for the past week. It has to be the masks.

To elaborate, yes Japanese are pretty clean by nature and do have social distancing naturally, but everyone is still taking the subway, the government has not cracked down much. Ubiquitous wearing of masks is the only really unique thing i can think of. (Actually even now not everyone is wearing them, but its still a good percentage and as soon as Japanese feel sick they wear masks) So I’ve come to the conclusion that if Japan isn’t just “lucky” (Lucky after 8 or 9 weeks is probably impossible) it has to be the masks.

So assuming it’s the masks, why have masks stopped the explosion we see elsewhere? We can theorize it must have kept the R rate down (Reproduction rate).

But, I do think a lot of people ARE still getting sick here. I think the government is only testing those with very severe symptoms so we aren’t seeing the true extent of the infection rate. I even think I might have had it a week ago as I had (very minor) similar symptoms. The weird thing is we don’t see a lot of severe cases here in japan. The main thing that I believe the masks are doing is stopping droplets getting spread from infected people (Meaning infected people who wear masks don’t spread the droplets as much). I think this reduces the rate of spread, but also I think reduces the amount of viral load that is getting transferred from infected people and can reduce severity of symptoms.

You reduce Infection Rate and you also reduce Infection Severity (reduce viral load) by wearing masks which combined with japan only testing severe cases leads to the results we see now in Japan.

Riding the subway doesn't make you sick. Not washing your hands and then touching your face with hands that have the virus from touching parts of the train makes you sick. You can't touch your face much if you have a mask on it. The virus doesn't just float around in the air. It only exists in water particles that fall quickly onto surfaces.

Most people will actually touch their face a lot when wearing a mask, to adjust it, scratch an itch or temporarily remove it to speak...

Yep, originally i believed everyone when they said masks aren’t useful except to keep yourself from touching your face, but after wearing masks I realized it’s also really hard to stop adjusting it.

My point is that it keeps infected from spreading droplets through the air and on those surfaces.

If an infected person without a mask coughs in a crowded subway, the virus is aerosolized for a good amount of time. If most are wearing masks, then even if infected, they're not spreading the virus.

This is commonly believed, but how do we know how true it is?

If breathing particles into your throat and lungs is the primary vector (seems likely to me, although I don’t know exactly what is), then what you are saying is wrong.

It seems that masks are being de-emphasised, based on the obvious fake reason of saving the retail stock for the front-line workers (how does avoiding buying retail stock magically get masks into hands of nurses?).

It also seems to me there is an over emphasis on washing hands, and avoiding touching your face (well mouth, nose or eyes). That could be one vector (although unlikely to be the main vector) yet why is everyone so hyper focused on it like it’s the critical vector? It’s the emphasis on washing and touching I find disturbing (even though obviously we should wash hands and avoid touching holes).

Washing and touching is what people can do without shooting each other over masks. I am sure it helps like 10%. Doubt it will have a massive impact either way. I’d like to think most people wash their hands reasonable often.

Yep.

What weirds me that it seems likely a bandana over the mouth could change R0 from 2.2 to 2.0, yet we talk about washing hands.

A 10% reduction of transmission is super good when you are dealing with exponential growth.

We need both together, yet we are focusing on only one.

Citation? Everything I've read contradicts that: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmissi...

In Czech Republic everyone now has to cover their nose and mouth while being outside, on a public transport or in an office. Obviously there is not enough respirators/surgical masks, so people are just sewing ordinary face masks.

It will be interesting to watch what kind of effect it will have on new infections

I am so angry at the experts saying masks were not helpful at the beginning of all this.

Sewing Ordinary face masks should help! The lie was that only n95 rated masks help because the virus is so small it goes through ordinary masks, but its not about that. It’s about stopping infected from spreading large amounts of it through droplets.

It’s in Japanese but I found this website on recommendations on how to create a mask: (I had to use Google translate) https://www.cottontimemagazine.com/page/10

And technically, SARS-CoV-2 is smaller than the filter on the n95. It's just that the virus clumps with moisture, and that is too large to pass through.

If you would think for 2 seconds, you know masks can help reduce spitting in front of you and also stop some of the ones others spread near you to get in your mouth.

Easy to think it's better than nothing.

There seems to be evidence (a lot) of asymptomatic people infecting others. If you only wear a mask when you feel ill, that doesn't seem like it could be the driver.

Japanese people have the oldest population in part because they live longer. Maybe it's genetic?

> There seems to be evidence (a lot) of asymptomatic people infecting others.

I've usually seen the opposite in public policy articles (CDC, NIH). Do you have an article I could read?

They also give a hand cleaning product at like every food place before you eat.

I think that goes under the “Japanese are generally clean” explanation. Along the lines of them not wearing shoes in the house, social distancing, washing their hands/bodies regularly etc. The hand cleaning product is actually called “Oshibori” and its usually just a wet towel. I am sure it helps but its not disinfectant or soap.

What if the vaccine program for school children that ended in 1994 has introduced a slower spread of virus ?

Interestingly, that program had a real impact on the flu, but was still discontinued, link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3210121/#!po=1....

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