This is key. We really can't compare countries confirmed case numbers directly because they are operating very different testing programmes. Just look at Germany. More confirmed cases than the USA, but a quarter of the deaths. Germany also has 80% as many cases as Spain, but about 5% as many deaths. All that, without a severe lockdown.

Clearly something completely different is going on there than in many other countries, and it seems they have an extremely effective and well organised testing system. They're testing about 160,000 people a week. In comparison, the UK to date has only tested around 50,000 people in total so no wonder our case numbers are far lower, even though we have double the number of deaths.

So Germany is an outlier, but it just goes to show even for other countries you can't just compare the curves and draw any definitive conclusions without also looking at the testing regime. This is where the experts with their detailed population models and simulation tools come in.