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Comment by chrisco255 | Hacker News Reader

I've been trying to figure out why Germany has a tiny fraction of the deaths that Italy has. I keep coming up blank. When I heard that type A blood is more susceptible than type O, I checked the prevalence in both countries. No significant difference. I checked smoking rates. No significant difference. If someone finds the answer to this question, please respond.

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1) lots of testing. Berlin alone is doing ~10k tests per week, which suggests about 200k/week nationwide. So they're picking up many more mild cases.

2) Many more cases among young people. Presumably partly because there's lots of testing, but perhaps also just the chance of which groups it spread within. The age breakdown is at https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

3) It takes a while for people to die, and the epidemic caught Germany later than Italy. For sure there are a lot more deaths coming in Germany

As a confirming anecdote to 1): A youngish person I know has been contacted because she was in contact with a previously tested person who was postive. Her result was positive too, despite her being asymptomatic (she still is). So now she is in quarantine at home. She counts towards the total cases in Germany.

For more insightful comparisons of cases between countries it would be great to have total cases categorized into asymptomatic/mild/severe.

Here in Berlin specifically, the largest clusters are around infected people that went to clubs and spread it around there. Unsurprisingly, that's not that many sick old people.

> I've been trying to figure out why Germany has a tiny fraction of the deaths that Italy has. I keep coming up blank.

I'm totally spitballing here, but conscientiousness is a well known confounder in health studies.

I believe Germany reports deaths differently. Last I heard, they are not reporting covid deaths where the person had some underlying health condition and are instead only reporting those deaths where the cause was covid and only covid. I’m sorry I don’t have a link and don’t have the time to dig it up — check BBC or Guardian coverage of the European epidemic.

Please don't spread unsubstantiated rumors. All reported deaths in the German media that I am aware of were linked to pre-existing health conditions.

Sorry about that. You’re right; I should have been more careful with my news consumption and commenting. Thanks!

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