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Comment by bitL | Hacker News Reader

I am wondering - coronavirus (the usual one) is associated with common cold; we don't have any vaccine against it nor do we actually understand the common cold itself; moreover, COVID-19 has a similar genomic packing as HIV/Ebola, two diseases we don't have vaccines for either. I am wondering if it is just wishful thinking we get a COVID-19 vaccine anytime soon (i.e. in the next decade). Are there any reasons to be optimistic?

Also, regarding herd immunity - we aren't immune against flu, is there any reason to think we could develop (long-term) immunity to COVID-19?

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> we aren't immune against flu, is there any reason to think we could develop (long-term) immunity to COVID-19?

Spanish flu became less lethal in subsequent generations[1]. Helps with the survivability of the virus if it doesn't kill the host. So, the strains with less lethality win out.

We don't need to be immune for the situation to resolve. Simply co-evolving with the virus is sufficient

[1] https://demystifyingscience.com/blog/2020/3/4/patriarch-of-p...

> So, the strains with less lethality win out.

Which is the case for COVID-19 vs original SARS (much more lethal). So we already have a "mild" version of SARS and it doesn't look good.

Flu's evolve and there's feedback from the behavior of the humans they infect. So if they make you feel like crap you are less likely to spread the infection. So that results in a less aggressive infection out competing a similar but more aggressive infection, doubly so since the immune system will like cross react between the two.

However with COVID19 the infection seems quite adept at spreading before the symptoms show, so there's going to be less of a feedback loop. Might even be the opposite since a serious infection means visiting the doctors office, in many cases more than once, and finally escalating to the emergency room. COVID19 seems especially adept at infecting nurses, doctors, ambulance drivers, and EMTs.

From what i heard, non-lethal coronaviruses immunity (so not MERS-CoV, SRAS-CoV or SRAS-CoV2) is lasting 6 month to 2 years, with the reinfection seemingly giving longer immunity.

Its not surprising tbh.

There is no guarantee that there ever will be vaccine that is effective. There will for sure be trials, we are all hoping on a positive outcome for one of those.

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