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So conversely if US hasn’t gone to hell in a couple weeks, it indicates we’ve been doing something right?

Sadly that's not a possibility.

According to mathematical models the capacity of your hospitals will be exceeded by more than 30 times.

Give it another week or two.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

As a follow-up to this message, we're now 9 days later and New York is overwhelmed, predicted to run out of intensive-care beds tomorrow, with other states quickly following.

If our testing infrastructure is in place to get correct counts, yes. Countries can be "graded" based on their trajectory on this graph:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-th...

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