From the numbers of a previous article the answer is x17. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea... (HN discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22575356 ) I prefer a rounded number to not give an illusion of precision, so x20, but there are too many approximations and unknown factor, so it's hopefully closer to x10, but it may be x30.

That article was heavily flagged because it has a bad title and a pessimistic message, but it was the first article that I saw with an approximate calculation of the size of the problem.