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Comment by ghastmaster | Hacker News Reader

Housing needs to follow. For people looking to get into the market like me, these prices are a barrier.

Housing is unlikely to follow unless more old people die of covid than expected. Rates are so low and big money will be looking to diversify into alternate asset classes.

A million dead, mostly elderly, is not completely out of the realm of possibility, especially if we hit the high end of 150 million infections in the US. Statistically, 150 million infections would kill closer to 4 million.

You really think that 50% of the population is the high end???

Per https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... it seems that the basic reproduction number is over 2. Which means that herd immunity only sets in if under 1/3 of the population is vulnerable. Which means over 200 million Americans get it.

The alternatives are permanent lifestyle changes, or a successful eradication of the disease worldwide.

The number of confirmed cases in South Korea is flattening out at around 8,200 people out of a population of 52 million (0,016 %), China is flattening out at 81,000 cases (0,006 % of the whole population). Is it really reasonable to assume the number of infected people in the the US will be 3,000 to 8,000 times higher?? If these are the calculations Wall Street are doing then I'm not surprised the stock market is falling...

The stock market is falling because (a) individuals and businesses are liquidating positions to have cash on hand and (b) people are worried that, without a liquidity package from the government, major businesses are in danger of being liquidated.

Are you really sure this is a good time to get into the market? I mean, property is usually a good long-term bet and rates are low, but you'd have to be pretty liquid to want to move now. Then again, if you think inflation is going to come in a big way, todays prices are reasonable.

Some people be crazy. Here I am wondering if I should start holding some of my emergency funds as actual real life cash and other people are looking to make a few bucks by investing in stocks.

You can't feed your family on AAPL.

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