UK COVID19 model published [pdf] | Hacker News Reader

UK COVID19 model published [pdf]

imperial.ac.uk

74 pointssgt1019 comments

Contains a useful table

   Age Range   (1)     (2)     (3)
     0 to 9    0.1%    5.0%    0.002% 
    10 to 19   0.3%    5.0%    0.006% 
    20 to 29   1.2%    5.0%    0.03% 
    30 to 39   3.2%    5.0%    0.08%
    40 to 49   4.9%    6.3%    0.15%
    50 to 59  10.2%   12.2%    0.60%
    60 to 69  16.6%   27.4%    2.2%
    70 to 79  24.3%   43.2%    5.1%
    80+       27.3%   70.9%    9.3%

where (1) is % symptomatic cases requiring hospitalization (2) is % hospitalized cases requiring critical care (3) Infection Fatality Ratio

This is really interesting and deserves a read. Modelling for both the US and UK.

Unmitigated fatalities (no intervention) would be 0.5 million in the UK or 2.2 million in the US over just a few months.

head spinning stuff, the mitigation strategy (suppression in waves for 18mths) is extraordinary.

Mitigation of suppression is going to be a big thing, there will be a premium on anything that can lift the mantle on society.

I had to laugh at that bit, only an epidemiologist would think it was practical to adopt a stop and start strategy for 18 months, opening and closing schools and adjusting lockdowns etc. every few weeks. I suspect governments will proceed to full lock down instead for as long as it takes (6-8 months?).

Economically this is going to hit very hard, and lead to a global depression and a lot of bankrupt companies. I almost fear the treatment might kill more than the disease after all the global economic impacts are accounted for.

To be fair to them they do comment that this is unproven and it may not be viable. I can't see that a 6mth lockdown will work either though.

I guess that what will happen will be a muddle - increase healthcare surge capacity, infection control with new tech (phones and reporting), better testing and tracing - and use of limited amounts of vaccine when it becomes available... even 10k shots would make a difference I suppose.

I summarised what I think the paper will mean for Europeans in the next 18 months: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10158255787747387&se...

I think that you are not listening to the briefings or decisions from the UK gov but instead reading the press - they have never said that they would let it spread unhindered; but wanted to do (2) flattern the curve. Now they are moving to 3 but are trying to time the move in such a way that childcare can be managed for the emergency services. Apparently 1/3 of nurses have school aged kids, the concern is that if they are out of school then they will be with grandparents - thus precipitating the kind of disaster the model shows could come.

I think that the hope that the government has is that they can build out a bigger surge capacity in a few weeks/months and then be able to mitigate the measures that they have in place. I think that this is wishful thinking at the moment - but I really hope I am wrong.

Very interesting. I noticed the model has the lockdown starting in April but in fact it has now started in March. I wonder how much this effects the length of lockdown required before we can afford to relax restrictions again (briefly).

Ironically the only reason why we will see so many deaths in a pandemic such as this is only because we are so overly overpopulated and we as a species have become too good to cheat nature by keeping dead people alive.

Also ironically this pandemic is exactly what the world needs to shut everything for 18 months and therefore finally take (involuntary) a real measure to stop further global warming. On a philosophical level one might say it’s better to fuck over one generation now and later save many more generations to come by keeping this planet inhabitable. As if we got punished because we were unable to act responsibly ourselves.

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