Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high.
Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. Depending on the model, the expected number is orders of magnitude higher.
Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. Depending on the model, the expected number is orders of magnitude higher.
I live in Shanghai. It normally takes about two weeks for things to go back to normal after Lunar New Year ends, which was two months ago. Things are not yet back to normal. Maybe 30% of office workers are back at work, 50% maximum. Gyms, bars, restaurants are almost all still closed. The dental hospital is still closed. You can basically write off February and at least half of March for economic production.
How is that any different than saying 2 months out of a decade is 1.7%??
That's exactly what it means. 3000 cases of positively identified infections in individuals, if you want to get more wordy. Some of those have recovered, some have died. Still the number is over that today.
No, it's a correction.
>> > Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections.
This statement is factually incorrect.
> The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing
That is irrelevant to the response I gave. It seems to be a popular interest today, in trying to clarify a concept, which is unrelated. I am done engaging with this derail.
Here in California as of today -- if you have a cough, and a fever, you will not be tested unless you have had international travel or known contact with a victim. This I know because I've spoken to two doctors and a nurse through Aetna.
FYI the governor of Ohio estimates 100,000 people in Ohio are infected. So there is that.