In Italy-- which has more somewhat more ICU beds per capita than the US does and is a about 1.5 weeks ahead of the bay area in progression-- the current CFR is 6.8% (which is likely an underestimate because exponential growth means that most people who are diagnosed haven't been infected long enough to have died yet) and the resolved CFR is 43% (which is likely an overestimate, in part because people are dying faster than they are recovering in Italy now because they're going untreated). [NOTE: CFR is not IFR, and the CDC analysis uses CFR and separately accounts for the fact that only a small portion of infections result in hospitalizations]
The best way to mitigate economic effects is to act stronger earlier, exponential growth means that little improvements earlier are more impactful than vastly more aggressive measures later.
After halting big public events, bars closures have probably some of the best ratios of reduced communicability to economic harm, especially given the data showing that young people are carriers are much higher rates than older populations.
Many people's informal observations that even last night many bars were very busy. I keep hearing from younger people that if it were an issue 'they' would close down and so concern must be over-hyped. This perception makes it more important to take stronger measures.
Example: For the few hours after announcing, the « McDonnalds » hashtag was trending. Which says a lot.
If after couple of days your stores are still empty of most staples, it suggests some serious problems higher up in the supply chain.
If groceries aren't back to normal in a week, I can easily see state troopers mobilized to guard every supermarket and make sure nobody buys twenty boxes of Bounty. Yes, it would look silly and would grate the nerve of free market enthusiasts, but in an emergency you go for effectiveness, not prettiness.
On the other hand, nobody's gonna die from the lack of a haircut anytime soon. Lots of people (myself included) can work remote.
Even at a 2 - 4% mortality rate, the sheer panic over this is nonsense
I must say in Seattle it’s a little alarming to go to the store and to literally see no meat, no bread, no milk, no soap. And I’ve already had friends in hospitality lose their jobs.
I think the UK’s keep calm and carry on approach is the right way - but it’s hard to turn back from a panic.
I don't see that works, people will riot.
Start getting unemployment now before that system becomes overwhelmed. I am not optimistic for state and local government to implement remote work.
The fear is that if the health system collapses the mortality rate could be even higher.
Beyond that, while it's unrealistic to immediately eliminate all mixing of people, you can vastly reduce it, and it makes a difference. That's the point of #StayTheFuckHome. Much less people on public transit, much less people in stores means much slower spread of the virus.