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Comment by pascalxus | Hacker News Reader

Take a look at this dashboard, specifically the bottom right section. The last 3 days, it seems that the number of reported cases is going down quite steeply. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

now, I know, today's number's aren't fully in yet, and there are day to day fluctuations. but, if you trust the numbers for the last 3 days, it looks like the number of cases is not increasing exponentially. I know the actual case number is much higher, but, what matters is the relative percent increase or decrease from day to day, and it does not seem to be increasing in the last 3 days. am i wrong?

Starting a few days ago, almost no one is going out, except to do their big shopping. so how can the virus still spread?

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The Johns Hopkins data (used in your link) has had a lot of problems the last couple of days. They've been doing various refactorings such as switching from per-county to per-state data, and it's causing a lot of issues. (It's a bit alarming that the number of cases is so high that even the people just tracking the data are getting overwhelmed.)

I've been following their data for a while and I admire their work, but I've stopped believing their numbers without double-checking. (Yes, I've filed bugs.) In addition, the last day on the graph has always made it look like cases are tapering off because it's partial data.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/issues/650

but what about this one: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

daily new cases (at the very bottom) shows there's very little increase from the 13th to the 14th.

Starting a few days ago, almost no one is going out, except to do their big shopping. so how can the virus still spread?

I think this is a very localized view of behavior. There are many large regions, pockets, demographic slices of the country where life is going on roughly as it was a few weeks ago.

> I think this is a very localized view of behavior. There are many large regions, pockets, demographic slices of the country where life is going on roughly as it was a few weeks ago.

Check out the Nashville music and party scene... It's hopping right now. I think #NashvilleUndefeated is their slogan. In Portland OR, I've observed a slight decrease in activity, but only by 5-10% from what I normally see.

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