Well, it's the real number in places that took this virus seriously and have enough case history to develop accurate numbers: China outside of Hubei; South Korea. Likely other east Asian countries that are showing slow growth rates will have similarly low death rates due to not overflowing their hospitals: Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore.

You're completely correct that the rate is more like 3-5% in Iran, Italy, and probably the US at this rate.