I think we (UK) are trying to be too cute about managing the curve, like we can ramp it up to the capacity line then slam on the brakes with the big measures at exactly the right time and keep it ticking along there nicely through the spring and summer and have this thing wrapped up by the end of the year. It could all go very badly wrong.

I get the impression we're being overly influenced by a few gurus of behavioral science, a field which must surely make even experimental psychology look replicationally robust, and in particular by 'nudge theory', for which our politicians have a particular penchant. I also gather we war-gamed this exact scenario two years ago, which may have led to a degree of overconfidence amongst some key players.