Ask HN: People are panic buying. What to do? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: People are panic buying. What to do?

48 pointssuperasn110 comments

I just got a phone call from my brother that a lot of online services have stopped delivering.

I just went to the supermarket and I see people just stocking up on essential items and empty shelves everywhere.

I am very much against it since it's a very illogical thing to do.

What would the sane way to go about it? Is it really possible that we can run out of things like milk and diapers nowadays?

This is the first time I'm seeing this happen in my life :(

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I hate it when people call it panic buying. It's not a panic. People are preparing themselves to have food for 2 weeks. That's what you should do as well.

In fact what everyone should have done is stockpiling gradually over the last couple of weeks. I went grocery shopping today and I only had to buy a few things because I was already prepared when there was still enough in the stores.

Be smart, think about what you need to get by without being able to go to the store for 2 weeks. I see lots of people buying stuff like bread, but you don't wanna eat bread all the time, do you? Also it goes bad pretty quickly. I think most of the bread that has been bought will end up in the dumpster.

There are different degrees. Some people are buying months and months' worth of things. Some people are buying an entire store's supply of toilet paper and the like in hopes of profiteering. It's insane and selfish. It prevents reasonable people from getting their 2 weeks' worth of stuff.

While it's true the over-preppers hurt everybody, I think you're overestimating how many of them there are and how directly they caused the dearth. Grocery stores simply aren't prepared for everybody buying even just two weeks of food at once.

I don't think I'm overestimating. It's all anecdotal, but I'm hearing things from friends, seeing lots of instances on social media. The NYT just covered one of them: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-pu...

That guy isn’t an overprepper. He tried to buy a monopoly on the product so he could price gouge.

The distinction isn't relevant to the discussion at hand

Well it works of is, as people like him are committing illegal acts so it’s already heavily discouraged and supplies may be seized.

Over prepping though isn’t illegal, so many more people could do it.

I must be out of the loop, but why exactly are people so focused on toilet paper? The virus doesn’t cause you to go to the bathroom any more than you’d normally do in a three week time period. It seems odd to focus on this one thing.

Last trip to the grocery store I saw people carrying out 3 year supplies of TP but the stock of fever reducing medication was all untouched.

Facebook rumor that TP comes from China, and that the shipments were being blocked. In reality, the stuff come from Wisconsin and we have plenty of pulp.

Are you serious about this? Surely nobody assumes all toilet paper is imported from China?

I thought the same thing and it must be that when you have a family, you can go through tp pretty quickly. Roughly four times as fast for two adults and two kids, and twice as fast if you live with your partner, compared to just living alone.

All the stuff people buy, most of it isn't for them alone.

I think in those cases the store owners should be responsible to not let that happen. They are basically doing 99% of their customers a disservice.

They should, but they have no real incentive to beyond civic duty.

They have the incentive of keeping customers happy

If 1 customer is allowed to buy all the TP then that means the rest of the customers will not be happy

> I hate it when people call it panic buying. It's not a panic. People are preparing themselves to have food for 2 weeks. That's what you should do as well.

People have been loading up shopping trolleys with literally hundreds of rolls of toilet paper. Easily enough to last a year. If that's not panic buying, I don't know what is!

Yes, some people are "prepping" or "panic buying". There's various degrees. The complaint is that some people do it over the top which affects us all. Though how exactly over the top is defined isn't clear.

> I hate it when people call it panic buying. It's not a panic.

Yes, it is, for some non-trivial percentage of the people doing the buying. There are also people who are stocking up in a more rational way, but those are irrelevant except in the sense that their rational strategy is being thwarted by the panic buyers. It's not necessary for everyone to be in a panic before the phenomenon can be considered real.

Buying a year worth of toilet paper instead of food is panic buying in my book.

And it is the kind of thing happening right now, at least here in Europe. Hell, my house mates witnessed it just today while stocking up on the regular weekly groceries. Cart after cart filled with toilet paper.

They call it panic buying because it is irrational and driven by fear of the unknown. Don't know where you live but in every country/region with a covid-19 epidemic had any shortage in the production/supply chain of food or other first need goods (and 2nd/3rd need either but some of those shops did close) and it doesn't look it's going to happen. It's not a post-nuclear scenario nor a "get touched and you are gonna 99.9% die" disease either. So yeah, people is panicking.

It's not irrational any more, enough people were/are acting irrationally to cause real shortages, so much so that at this point the rational thing to do is to make sure you're prepared and stocked up with basic essentials.

we have developed a very efficient supply chain, where stores generally keep on shelf what they expect to sell, and everything else stays in some warehouse somewhere.

stores restock every day; every week. there will not be supply shortages, just things out of stock until they get restocked the next day. For all we know, stores may start having things that are selling out quickly shipped to them in larger quantities.

This isn’t like the potato famine or similar where the actual production was disrupted, or a war or natural disaster where supply chains are disrupted, leading to real shortages. Just people buying in larger quantities than stores have stocked for.

If you can’t get what you need today, it’ll be there tomorrow, etc. While the stock market has crashed, retail stores are seeing their biggest profits in years. They have every incentive to keep restocking and even to respond by stocking in larger quantities during this time.

They'll restock tomorrow and a large proportion of people who saw the empty shelves today will buy more than they would normally to make sure that they don't go without, leading to empty shelves, goto 10.

Supply chains are intact but they can't deal with this level of demand immediately and so there's going to be a period in which there are shortages. How long those shortages last depend not only demand but on other factors, e.g. how many people in the supply chain are directly or indirectly affected by the virus.

This assumes that people have infinite money, infinite demand, infinite space, and infinite time.

But there are diminishing marginal returns.

Check your local retailers today and see if they’re still sold out of toilet paper.

Less trips to the supermarket, less chances to get infected.

Ha, I'm seeing the same thing over here in NL. All the bread and milk gone, while there's plenty of canned food. No toilet paper, pre-packaged meals and other processed foods, but plenty of fruits and veggies. People are weird.

Buying 6 months of toilet paper is not preparing themselves to have food for 2 weeks. Your argument would be good if they were buying food, but they are not.

You can freeze bread for weeks, maybe even months and even preserve freshness.

While that is certainly true, if things were to get dire enough that bread is no longer available, I do not think you could count on having electricity, either.

This is a global pandemic with a death rate of <1% to 6% depending on the place. The world isn't ending. Electricity isn't going away. Neither is bread. The whole idea is to not have to go to the store and expose oneself to the virus. It's not the zombie apocalypse or whatever dumb thing the people hoarding toilet paper think it is.

You are talking as though the world is going to end for 2 weeks. It’s not

One of my colleagues has been infected, it's another department, so we aren't doing home office yet, but if just one of the people I came in direct contact with was also infected, I have to stay at home for two weeks. I get grounded for 2 weeks, I can't even go outside to buy food. That's a real possibility for me.

No, the world isn't going to end for 2 weeks, but I might run out of food during that time. And I don't want that.

People think it cannot affect them until it does.

You can easily freeze bread.

Better still, you can easily bake bread. White flour lasts for years if stored well, dry yeast lasts as long. Add some rye, oats, muesli, nuts and/or other random kitchen finds to create something akin to whole-grain bread. Add boiled grits or ground boiled pasta to create a more moist loaf. I've been baking my own bread since high school (i.e. for about 40 years) and see no reason to stop doing so. It also gives you something to do while waiting out the quarantine...

Yes. Great bread recipe linked below. You may never go back to store bought. It has non-laborious kneading, you just leave it overnight.

http://chefmichaelsmith.com/recipe/country-bread-city-bread/

You can also easily make bread if you have an oven. This recipe requires flour, salt, yeast, and water, almost no work, and time.

https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/11376-no-knead-bread

I've been baking more in the past week than in the past five years. Being cooped up at home goes better with fresh bread every day.

We buy bread in bulk when it's on sale, and freeze it. When we pull out a loaf, it goes in the fridge, where we keep it.

Even if you skip the freezer, keep it in the fridge. Cold temperatures extend its shelf life.

Bread goes stale faster in the fridge.

Not been my experience in the 20 years I've been doing it. Perhaps it depends on the type of bread?

This. Take your slices out of the freezer in the evening and you get your good bread for breakfast or later the next day.

For bread that isn't sliced thick, I've found that it thaws remarkably fast. 10-15 minutes on a paper towel on the counter is enough.

Or just right into the toaster directly from the freezer, works great

Ok, true. Many people have a big freezer.

Although not in Europe were the virus is about to peak in the coming two weeks. The average freezer and refrigerator is much smaller here.

This is why we (as Europeans, Dutch) bought an American fridge. So we can store large amounts of food. We buy certain things when they're on sale, in large amounts. There's much less choice available of American fridges (especially if you have other requirements such as amount of dB). It saves us money on the longer term.

The average european is smaller than the average american, so there is that :)

... wider than ...

Yes it is a panic. If you've seen some of the photos of supermarkets where people are rushing to grab everything before anyone else and there's stuff scattered all over the floor.

It's poor behavior, illogical, and doesn't help the situation. This isn't armaggedon, it's a slightly worse flu and if you're not old (70+) or immunocompromised you're going to be fine. Anyway, if you're 70+ getting a flu is bad news in any other year (60k people in the US die every year of flu!), nothing really changed except every flu death is now front page news. This isn't a zombie apocalypse, people are blowing this massively out of proportion.

> it's a slightly worse flu

There are two key differences here:

1. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus currently appears to have a death rate 7 to 20 times higher than typical seasonal flus, and the death rate gets worse without medical care (and later in the illness).

2. Nobody has any existing antibodies against the coronavirus, so it can infect more people than a seasonal flu.

We have seen in China and Italy that this virus can push health care systems to the point of collapse. And Italy can expect to see 3x the current patient load even if their shutdown has mostly stopped the virus.

Estimates from the CDC say that the US risks up to 1.7 million dead if we don't slow the spread of the disease. Other estimates suggest closer to 480,000 dead unless we take measures. That's out of 325 million, so yes, most people would survive.

The good news is that this isn't the zombie apocalypse or (for Steven King fans) Captain Trips. But unless everyone is missing something important in the numbers, this could be closr to 1918.

Exponential growth (or even sigmoid curves) can be nasty.

You many run out of things temporarily until more deliveries arrive and they stack the shelves. There will be no long term shortages.

It's a good idea to buy and store some durable supplies because you may need to self quarantine for few weeks. It's also a good idea to shop less frequently and buy more at once to avoid getting infection. It's unfortunate that everyone decides to do it at the same time.

'I need to do something to protect my family' is very core need under threat. When there is little you can do, you take little more toilet paper so that you have done something. It's both silly and very human.

The "until more deliveries arrive" is at most the next day. The supply chain for grocery stores is very, very good and we are not even close to lacking of anything.

Just FYI, I live near Seattle, and the grocery stores around here have been out of many things for a week. I'm sure they've been restocking in the meanwhile, but we haven't been able to get a few things.

I live in a town w/ 3 grocery stores and a lot of rural suburbs w/out any. (Cedar City, UT)... when there's panics, even a snowstorm, the supply chain breaks down fast.

This is epic levels... I like to have some 'easy' comfort food like instant oatmeal, and had to go to all 3 stores to find some and it wasn't my go to quaker oats maple/brown sugar but I took 2 weeks worth anyways. Canned goods were gone... I can't find dinty moore anywhere after 5 different attempts over a week, I gave up.

I got plenty of junk food, some stuff to last me till my wife gets back in town to cook us food, and we have lots of meat stocked up from her parent's hunt last year. We won't starve, but w/ restaurants closing, this will hurt a lot who eat out a lot. It's not like they even get the benefit of 'saving money' since they now are likely temporarily laid off without income...

I know for a fact the supplies were replenished, but then unplenished at least 1-2 times in past week. Small town problems, at least social distancing is easier when there's not a lot to do that isn't four wheeling or hunting, or fishing which is already pretty seclusive.

In the short term, shelves will probably take some time to be adequately restocked from all the panic buying.

Grocery supply chains are good, but if people are continuing to panic buy things, then it will be difficult for the grocers to keep their shelves full. Also, if grocery store workers start to become sick en masse, then it might become more difficult for the grocery stores to stock shelves.

Depends where you are, here in the UK even wholesalers which supply smaller grocery stores are rationing things like toilet paper, pasta, flour etc.

Since there is no fundamental supply issue (at least for items like groceries and toilet paper) this will follow the same curve as other "panic buying" - stores will be pretty barren for about a week or so, then everyone will realize it's not Armageddon and go on normally.

The exact same thing happened a couple years ago WRT gas in Texas. There was no actual shortage, but because of the hurricane there was fear buying that there would be a shortage, so people showed up to gas stations literally filling up garbage cans with gas, and then there was an actual shortage.

If possible, though, I would definitely recommend stocking up on essentials when things get back to normal. I'm not worried about doomsday, just irrational humans clearing out the shelves at the slightest hit of a negative event.

There's certain foods which are useful to have in larger amounts, and there's certain foods which are perishable. It makes sense to ensure you have some supply of the former, and it makes sense there's on short-term a higher demand than supply for these. For perishable products, it does not make sense, though I myself own for example a dehydrator with which I'm able to ensure perishable foods become less perishable.

Funny how your last paragraph makes all of the above sounds irrelevant. That's the exact same rational - emotional chain "panic buyers" went through.

Not at all. That's like telling people it's irrational to buy a fire extinguisher. Point is going out a buying all the fire extinguishers when there is a mass panic is dumb. Time to take reasonable precautions is in normal times, and I'm not talking about filling a floor in your house with TP, either.

> I am very much against it since it’s a very illogical thing to do.

And that’s why the shelves are empty now and you have this problem. Panic is good. EARLY “panic” is the best. It leads to preparedness and less panic later when things are tough and it would cause more problems. When I was telling people five weeks ago to start preparing now by building up their supplies because this is the real deal I was laughed at by a few and told to “stop panicking”. A few others listened and they’re not panicked now. If everyone had listened and done the responsible thing of building up their supplies over those few weeks you wouldn’t see this problem.

Now is a better time than never to start preparing up in case you have to spend some time stuck inside.

The supply chains are still working fine for super markets so you’ll see the stock on shelves continue to build back up.

We are not going to run out of most groceries. The primary advantage of stocking up is to make it possible to stay home.

If you don't have Covid-19, staying home limits your risk of getting it and then passing it on. If you do catch it, having enough supplies to manage a mild case at home also limits the likelihood of passing it on.

As long as community transmission is low in your area, stocking up today in order to be able to stay home for the next couple of weeks seems to make sense.

This is a collective fight. The average person can aid the global effort through the simple effort of avoiding in-person human contact. (Reaching out electronically can help us feel connected, too!)

There is panic buying and there is being prepared. We started buying more of the usual stuff we use about 4(?) weeks ago. We agreed, that the situation looked dangerous in january and considered triggers for different actions. So we now can decide to go shopping, still go to the market, but de don’t have to go to closed, crowded places. We were able to do this because we followed “real news” and have a background in science and we didn’t let our friends tell us “it’s not going to be bad!” without having a point. Is is a calm and rational process of risk assessment and mitigation.

If you see people stocking up on water in my area, _that’s_ panic buying. Scenarios for extended failure of the grid or water supply is implausible. The risk of running out of food for extended periods of time is low in my area. These people realize that they slacked and now they are still uninformed. The only thing that helps against panic buyng is education and information.

Humans are not logical animals. There's a lot of criticism on modelling human making logical decisions in economics. In some other fields humans are modelled as fluids or herds, devoid of individual judgement/decision making.

Some items will be restocked, some others may not due to supply chain disruption. Look online for DIY solutions or alternatives as there are plenty. In some cities Asian supermarkets might be a viable option since many Asians have stocked up like weeks ago and they avoid crowded places now.

> In some other fields humans are modelled as fluids or herds, devoid of individual judgement/decision making

From a game theory perspective, following the herd in this case could be the rational choice on an individual level even if you have decision making. If enough people think there's a shortage coming, and they stock up in preparation for it, then you get an actual shortage as a result. In this scenario, there's very little potential downside to stocking up (at least for non-perishables) from your perspective, since even if you're wrong then you're just saving a few trips to the supermarket in the near future, and you might even get a discount if you buy in bulk (incl. saving gas, time, etc). But there is a potential downside to not stocking up, since you then risk not being able to later find the item when need it again, or having to pay more for it if you do find it. Going further, if you think that other people are going to start panic buying, then it makes sense for you to do so as well. But by doing so you also contribute to causing the shortage, leading to a self fulfilling prophesy.

So I don't think it's necessarily that people aren't being logical, but more that they're acting based on limited information.

Its easy to judge other people without knowing their situation.

It depends on where you are, and how far the virus is in your country/state/city/region.

It also depends on if you can order groceries online and have them delivered. Though there might be extra costs attached and there's possibly environmental impact I believe this to be the best method to avoid further infections. If you prepare to have the virus, or to avoid getting it, going less to grocery store and making sure you got a supply makes sense.

We're currently ill (probably not COVID-19) and my daughter of 2 had diarrhea and vomiting. I made sure she got enough pain relievers, because our supply was running out.

There is also a large difference between buying a little bit more supplies, and buying very large amounts...

> "It also depends on if you can order groceries online and have them delivered."

Regarding this, it's worth remembering that an ill packer or delivery driver can contaminate your delivery as well. Hand-washing, etc. after handling delivered groceries (or mail, for that matter) may be warranted for high risk individuals in areas known to have ongoing spread of COVID-19.

Stock up a modest amount yourself. If people are manufacturing a shortage by panic-buying, then you don't need to do the same thing, but you do need to prepare for that manufactured shortage itself. We made sure we've got a week or two's worth of stuff we already use. I bought an extra pack of toilet paper; I didn't shovel the entire shelf into my cart.

Tell them you have no capacity problem. You are raising capacity. Rise the price by 30%+, the reason for that would be to cover up additional cost you have and make people think a bit before they panic buy. Rank up production to absolute maximum given the time allowed. That basically means factory running 24/7. Absolutely flood the market with excess stocks.

Some people have more toilet paper than they need for the rest of their life. Some of them has hundreds rolls of toilet paper. You want SPAM? Great, have cartons of SPAM, lets play the game of Supply and Demand and see if you have more buying power than my capacity. The simple lesson is, idiots and selfish people are everywhere. ( Nothing wrong with keeping two weeks worth of stock, but right now people are buying for the sake of buying )

So what hasn't this happen? The answer is Lead time. Not only in capacity but in decision making. As far as I am aware NO manufacturers to date have risen capacity when they were given prior notice. They only raise when the stock were running dry, and there were real incentives to do so. The decision of that has also taken days if not weeks till action, which is very long in consumer's view perspective.

Look at Hong Kong and Taiwan. Shops now have years wroth of stocks in hand cleaning and washing solutions. They only capacity constraint we have right now is Mask.

At some point you may wish to not go to the grocery store for 2-3 weeks, either because you get sick, or because too much of the population may be contagious, which could be right now depending on where you are and whether you are high risk.

So it makes sense to have a few weeks of supplies even if normally you just get what you need as you need it on a much shorter timeframe.

If we want to kill this virus, or flatten the curve, we can do a lot by simply going out less. That means fewer trips to the store, which means bigger purchases each trip.

This is a good idea right now even if there are no confirmed cases in your area yet. Stock up, let grocery stores restock for people who waited, get ready, get the right habits now that let you stay out of public, and reduce the potential spread now.

Buying a gorillion bottles of hand sanitizer is of course not helping and selfish. But stocking up on things you will use and reducing time in public is a good idea.

Today, first time in my life, thanks to my wife's blind fury imagination assuming we will starve, I have spent close to $400 on groceries which in any normal day I wouldn't imagine buying. But at the end of the day it is a small price to pay and play to her hand than resisting to go shopping and spend the day fighting. And in my opinion, it is not going to be as bad as people think. We will not go to using leafs as toilet paper. Store supplies will return to normalcy in a week or two. And god know we all have enough pasta and ragu to tide us 2 weeks in any pantry nowadays. If you don't, may be you should, especially considering eating out is rolling the dice a tad riskier than I would like to take. I have shopped at a walmart super center and a supertarget right across the road from that and first time in my life i have seen walmart out of bread and there was a 200+ people line inside the store waiting for a package of toilet paper. It is just widespread panic and I believe it is for nothing. When I lived in Atlanta GA, I used to laugh at the women loading up their carts with 15 gallons of milk and 30 loaves of bread because the weather man said it was going to flurry tonight. In Atlanta, snow falls one or two days tops in whole winter and stays on the ground 4-6 hours and you fight the slush for the next two days, before everything goes back to normal. Today I remembered thise scenes and looked at my shopping cart. Thanks to my wife, I turned to one of those ladies.

Actually seems like a pretty rational thing to do. People will stay home more, cook more frequently, and obviously need more toilet paper than usual (especially when the entire family starts staying home more). Most importantly, people probably prefer to go shopping less frequently so you naturally end up buying more each time. As mentioned, it's unfortunate everyone's doing it at the same time.

When hikers or travelers are beginners, have you seen how much more (or not enough) they pack? With experience or guidance they tend to pack lighter.

In the current case, some are concerned, some are waiting to survive a doomsday, some watched the Contagion movie, some are hoping to make money.

A sane way: For Covid-19, one has to be prepared with basics(food, water, soap, fever-reducing-medicines) for somewhere between 14-27 days of home quarantine (or curfews). And not just assume by default that administration will crumble - they are usually there when you need the basics, except for countries where it has been proven otherwise. Many things that people are stocking up are non-essentials i.e. replaceable with other less comfy methods.

After this is over, the govt. administration can attempt to advertise/educate some preparations for the next unforeseen times. Over a longer period that becomes a cultural habit.

I do not understand why people take unprescribed medicines, especially antivirals as prevention, when that could clearly disturb human microbiome and open up for infections.

I think there is a difference between a famine and a virus pandemic. We don't have a shortage of food (at least not yet in the UK). It may get there over time if more people get ill and food and basic supplies get affected as a result. Gradually buying food and buying a bit of a buffer is possibly okay. But buying an entire trolly of toilet papers (I saw a woman buying 20 large packets of toilet papers today, enough to last 2 people 2 months I'd say) is possibly putting unnecessary strains on supermarkets and the supply chain in general. I spoke to the managers at my local supermarket today and asked them if they can place a threshold on certain essential items (for example if you buy more than 3 packets of toilet papers in one go, you have to pay a premium for the 4th packet) - that way people will really think about whether they truly need everything they are buying and possibly think twice before unnecessarily panic buying. It is important to think about how our actions will impact others as well I think.

Care to share the answer you received?

Having spoken to the local staff at Waitrose, there is no shortage of supply (as of yet). The shortage comes from them not being able to refill stock from their warehouse fast enough due to the unprecedented demand. They are also constrained by their business model. Supermarket shelf spaces are super competitive and expensive, with many products fighting for exposure. So, they maintain a tight refill schedule, which is difficult to alter in a short time. They also have little capacity to fill all shelf spaces with essentials, as they still have to stock and display certain non-essential items (even if these are not in demand) contractually or otherwise. The general gist of it is that they have enough in the warehouses, and even though they can add 2x more, they are not prepared for every single person stocking up 3 months worth of essentials in one go.

In my local Waitrose, they've already limited the purchase of toilet papers to max 2 packs per person and pasta to 3 packs per person. I believe all supermarkets in the UK have already released a statement requesting people to be more considerate when buying essential items, so maybe that will encourage people to not stock up to the extent they are.

>What would the sane way to go about it?

Plan for at least a week, if not two ahead. This depends on the number of people in the household.

>Is it really possible that we can run out of things like milk and diapers nowadays?

1. Someone correct me if I am wrong but cargo transports haven't stopped (ships, planes, trucks, trains). These things will keep coming in and stocking up the necessary stores.

2. People will stock up at once and then the craze will subside.

3. Just-In-Time works great when things go well, not so great when things aren't going well. Countries have warehouses stocked with (non-perishable?) food in case things don't go well.

>This is the first time I'm seeing this happen in my life :(

When this whole thing is over, go and volunteer in some third-world backwater shithole of a country and help them out. For many parts of the world, this blip of a "food shortage crisis" is the standard fare, along with a general lack of, well, everything.

Also, a good portion of the western population does not know how to cook, or has a very limited range of cooking, baking and food preparation skills. Something to consider.

> "Plan for at least a week, if not two ahead."

30-60 days would be a safer bet, plus a little extra to help out friends and neighbors who failed to prepare. That isn't to say that the current panic buying is justified but that, in general, that's how long it seems to take before relief efforts fully come online in the event of a disaster and should therefore be the normal standard for preparedness.

> "Someone correct me if I am wrong but cargo transports haven't stopped (ships, planes, trucks, trains). These things will keep coming in and stocking up the necessary stores.

This hasn't occurred domestically and it's likely that stores will be continued to be stocked for the moment. In the intermediate term, reportedly freight shipping from China seems to have slowed drastically (e.g. https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-oakland-... and https://www.seattletimes.com/business/international-trade/se... Disable Javascript to get around the paywall.) and this might (emphasis on might) eventually have cascading effects on even products from the domestic manufacturing chain depending on how long production and shipping from China takes to be restored. Even if a product's primary components are domestically produced (toilet paper seemingly being the canonical example these days), the machinery, packaging, etc. may depend on supplies or replacement parts from overseas.

Calling any country a “shithole” place is a terrible insult for its population.

No, not at all. Just pointing out the unsanitary situation that is the norm for these countries.

You've just proven you can get the exact same point across without being offensive (and quite frankly, a little bit juvenile).

I would assume that you will have basic utilities without interruption -- water, electricity. Supply chains could, theoretically, have disruptions as the disease runs through the world. I am not saying they will; just that they can. If it happens the affect on you and yours of not having extra is extremely significant. That's enough of a reason to buy what you can.

You cannot go back and time, but after things settle down (they will) look at your budget and what it takes to have a couple of weeks extra of necessary items. It's not super expensive to buy rice and beans if you are on a budget, then rotate your supply when the rice starts to get old. If you have more money you can get something with less monotonous flavor: canned food, dehydrated, freeze dried, whatever. You may need it twice in your life, but when you do, it will be the wisest thing you have every done.

So long as there are no major supply disruptions (which we have little reason to believe there will be), you’ll see full shelves of fresh produce while the frozen and canned sections are bare. Eat fresh food and buy some cans when you see them. I doubt anyone will go hungry because of this.

Preparation and panic are not the same. Do not expect to rely on conveniences like deliveries, they are merely conveniences and can stop.

It is very possible to run out access to necessities. I don't believe food itself will be in any significant shortage, but you might not get to it.

If you fall sick, you'll need to self-isolate and not leave the house for several weeks. So you need to be ready to do so.

Even if you remain healthy, access to supermarkets may have restrictions (see Italy today). While you can get food, you might need to line up for a few hours, increasing your exposure. Best to have a few weeks of food at home for when your area is in this stage.

The alternative to preparation is to wait until you need to panic. Not recommended.

Toilet papwr, bananas and carrots were all gona at my local store. I got everything else I'd planned. I'm not panicking about TP. I spent like $45 on a couple more bidet seats for my house and we're all using them. It's more environmentally friendly and I don't have to worry about hoarders.

We've had a bread machine for a while, so we use that a lot. We don't have cow milk in the house anyway. I have pet chickens and if we need to, we can eat the eggs. We have a mostly vegetarian diet and the meat alternatives aren't flying off the shelves.

Just need to find some carrots and bananas...

Since this thing isn’t going away in the next 2 weeks, seems illogical to buy too much. The advice is to buy 2 weeks of supplies in case you’re infected and can’t leave the house. People would need 6+ months worth of supplies, and even then would get infected once they came out of hibernation. The smart thing is for people to start thinking longer term for now. As for the solution, try buy slightly more than you usually would, until the panic buying is over. Try smaller shops and chat to owners about when they will have stock?

There were similar situations during Y2K, which my friend reminded me was a generation ago now, so many younger folks don't remember.

As others have said, this is a temporary blip, but when things are restocked, you should build up your supply. The ideal thing is to build it up slowly over weeks or month, and always have a rotating supply (make sure you use and replace items before they expire).

Thanks everyone for your replies. It does give me clarity and I feel that it wouldn't hurt me to buy 2 weeks supply of super essential things esp baby products.

I used to buy them like this before anyway, but something just felt wrong doing it today when supplies are running so low for everyone.

Shower thought: if you can’t actually cook and improvise but are used to have access to industrially prepared food, being prepared to stay at home for a few weeks is way more complicated.

It's not that irrational. First thing that comes to mind is you might want to minimize times you have to leave the house or prepare yourself for the eventuality of a quarantine.

Why is it illogical? Often there is a deeper logic than what appears on the surface.

Nassim Taleb pointed out on twitter recently that when interest rates are zero (in reality negative with inflation), buying tons of non-perishable goods isn't really that bad of an idea. The time value of the money is arguably better sitting in toilet paper than cash.

To answer your question, yes it really is possible that we run out of basic goods. That's why people are "panicking". Personally I don't see it as super likely, but you could reasonably argue that it's probable.

Yes, the supply chains can be disrupted. Of course the governments will make sure that grocery stores, pharmacies and trucks for food delivers will still be open or be able to pass borders. But unforseen events can make it so you local grocery store has close or runs out. I've had people I know infected with the virus and I know even more people who can't come to work, because of some other events, like Kindergardens closing, so they have to stay at home to watch their kids. It's not always as simple as "no more flour", it can be an unforseen event that can hit you hard.

There are other investment vehicles than cash and toilet paper. One's that are actually productive.

/r/wallstreetbets would love to know what those are right now?

wsb is about speculation, not investing. This straw man doesn't diminish my argument.

>I am very much against it since it's a very illogical thing to do.

OP I wish you to never experience a natural disaster. This is nothing compared to those.

Logic flows from axioms, consider axioms that these other people believe in. It may well be that it’s a perfectly logical things to do.

I haven't seen any panic buying yet. Pretty sure the shop downstairs even has toilet paper.

I got ~month of Mana powdered meals just in case though.

it's not illogical at all

If everyone else is likely to 'stock up' and therefore cause shortages, the only logical thing to do is also 'stock up', before there are shortages and you can't get things you need.

It's only "panic buying" for the people that aren't prepared.

Anyone who calls you stupid for being vigilant and preparing for the worse, are just as likely to call you stupid for not preparing if disaster does strike. It looks like many people prefer to be stupid and fed, than stupid and hungry.

this is a worldwide problem at the moment.

These are not ordinary times. Seems that it takes quite a lot of time for a lot of people to grasp the severity of the situation.

My take is that in the near term (1-2 months), there will be a shortage of a lot of produce, especially food. I really hope I'm wrong.

I suggest you stock up everything for 2-4 weeks - it's something I've done. My plan is to go out buying every 2 weeks or so.

> My take is that in the near term (1-2 months), there will be a shortage of a lot of produce

I say this from a place of kindness and compassion: this is the sort of mindset we should avoid.

It's understandable to have fear of an unknown situation, but look at the available data. Even in places with large outbreaks, grocery stores have continued delivering all essentials to the population.

Ensuring you have some food for the next couple of weeks (not the next couple of months/years) makes sense in case you need to self-isolate. That's about it.

I say this also from a place of kindness and compassion: you should heed OP’s advice.

My sister owns a pharmacy. She has been sold out of many things since end of January and isn’t receiving stock even though she orders it every day. She is starting to run out of canned foods. Her shelves are empty for many things. This is in Toronto, the largest city in Canada.

The next step will be complete shut down for 2-4 weeks across the US and Canada in order to “flatten the curve”. Expect that supply chains will be impacted and food will run out not because of lack of actual food but disrupted supply chains and sick workers.

We have yet to see most of the impact of supply chain disruption from China. That alone is going to impact most businesses. If in addition to that a lot of people in your own country are going to be sick or quarantined, I don't think we can assume things are going to work out the same as before.

How much food is actually imported from China into your country?

It's not about food, but about things like parts for machines needed to make that food.

I'm skeptical that it will work out that way, because the infection tends not to disable people under 50, and I think most of the people involved in supplying groceries are under 50.

The average age of truckers in the USA is 55. Not as clear cut as you might think.

The labor market for truckers has been absolutely horrible for a few years now. Thousands and thousands of truckers have lost their jobs. We won't run out of truckers in this country any time soon.

That’s interesting, from work I have some insight into inner european production- and delivery chains.

It seems we had a lack of truckers and an older friend who changed professions to become trucker told me, there’s money in it.

I’m writing “had” because I’m not so sure about the rest of the year.

A guy in the grocery store 2 days ago was pontificating on the phone about the "dumb liberals" panicking. This was in Bergen Co. NJ. The dog whistle messaging has convinced the idiocracy that they don't have to do anything to prepare.

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