OpenTable Restaurant Performance Data | Hacker News Reader

OpenTable Restaurant Performance Data

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137 pointsgeorgespencer59 comments

Brutal. Restaurants are already often hanging on by a thread.

Over 400 closed in SF last year[1] due to the high cost of doing business there - some that had been operating for over 20 years. And that was with normal demand! Imagine now that their traffic has dropped 51%?

https://www.sfgate.com/food/article/411-restaurant-closures-...

Canada rolled out $10B in business financing just today to give businesses like restaurants a lifeline through this challenging and unusual time. The money is being pushed out via BDC (which is like the US Small Business Administration) and EDC, an export development agency that provides guarantees so that banks can lend to risky borrowers to support exports. On a GDP-scaled basis, the Canadian financial package is the equivalent of a $90B package in the US -- nearly twice what Trump's administration is offering.

Switzerland did the same, they offered 10B in help. They also waived a lot of bureaucratic paperwork for companies wanting to apply “Kurzarbeit”. I hope people take advantage of it and not in a bad way.

Even though $10B seems nice, it's a drop in the bucket - any sustained depression at this level will start to have severe consequences far, far beyond the 2008 recession.

I hate to sound like Trump and make this about the economy, but if this keeps up, we're all in serious trouble - we need to spend.

With all of the 'social isolation' talk, there needs to be a push to 'stay calm carry on' i.e. focus on the 'carry on' parts - we need to do our jobs, we need to finish our work, we need to keep buying stuff (obviously thoughtfully), and we should also be trying to find ways to enjoy ourselves or we're going to go crazy.

I'm really worried about my two locally-owned cafes, I'm literally stepping out now to get 'take out coffee' as I would normally 'sit-in' so as to cause the least disruption to their business. Same with everything else frankly.

1/2 of my 'What I am going to do?' Coronavirus thoughts have revolved around how I can 'keep spending at my regular places' because if we don't do that, it's going to go down like dominos. I know most people probably don't think in those terms, but the moment you become responsible for a P&L, one's worldview shifts!

It's possible that negative economic downturn could inadvertently cause more bad life outcomes than the pandemic itself.

The economy is the circulatory system of our collective wealth (and therefore health), we need to chin up and keep at it.

I wish this administration would do something like zero interest SBA crisis loans for this situation. I've already seen two of my favorite places where I live shut down indefinitely (I personally know one of the chefs at one of them). These places really do operate on razor thin margins and count on major holidays like St. Patrick's Day, and the summer in general, to make it through the year. The Fed's $1.5T "injection of liquidity" falls on deaf ears to these people.

Likely won’t happen. Historically, these bailouts are given to big business, and the small businesses are subject to free market rules (adapt or die)

When I saw drops on Mondays, I initially thought it was due to a year-on-year weekday mismatch, but the analysis is sound

> For year-on-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of week from the same week in the previous year. For example, we'd compare Tuesday of week 11 in 2020 to Tuesday of week 11 in 2019.

Interesting that most have a double dip, with a big drop on 3/2 and then again on 3/9 which is ongoing

This can typically be explained by weather effects this year or last.

Monday’s are big news days with markets reacting to weekend news, businesses making worldwide directives, and the general dystopian state the world is slipping into.

And people were wondering recently when you would ever use week numbers.

Most Restaurants don’t provide paid time off for sickness and the back of the house employees make near min wage. Seems like a huge risk to eat out during a pandemic.

Even in cities like San Francisco[1] and Seattle[2] where all employees must receive paid sick leave, demand fell off a cliff (understandably!). There are great arguments for offering and/or legislating paid sick leave, but if it's made any impact on demand, the impact is too small to matter.

[1]: https://sfgov.org/olse/paid-sick-leave-ordinance-pslo [2]: http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/LaborStandards/...

Data analysis does not need to be complicated to tell a story. This is simple, relevant, and paints the whole picture. Thanks for sharing.

Kudos to OpenTable for publishing this data. I've used OpenTable a few times before - I will even more going forward.

Can someone enlighten me on the effects this will have on the economy?

IANA economist, but it feels like I'm still relatively net-zero with my spending. My family didn't go out to eat, we spent less on gas, but we spent more on groceries at our local grocery store, and there's a little more in our bank account.

People in the hospitality/tourism industry are certainly going through a lot of pain. If people didn't spend money in those sectors, where did it go?

The money doesn't have to go anywhere. Even slowing down how many hands a dollar passes through in a year leads to a contraction. More info here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/velocity.asp

In a similar vein, it's crazy to me to compare traffic for the Seattle area compared to an the same weekday a year ago.

https://imgur.com/a/8NHdDf8

It's like a ghost town out there.

The couple of restaurateurs I've talked to don't know how they're going to keep the doors open much longer.

Tom Douglas [1] has closed 12 of his 13 Seattle restaurants. Only one remains open to honor the terms of a contract. [2]

[1]: https://www.tomdouglas.com/

[2]: https://www.seattletimes.com/life/food-drink/seattle-chef-to...

I made a quick visualization based on this data: relative number of coronavirus cases per state and restaurant performance from 3/11-3/12 https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1238701800997490690

Is this only dine-in or does it include delivery also? Both of them should have different patterns.

Dine in only. Reservations and walkins. (Source: I created this spreadsheet with our data team)

Could it be that people just don’t bother to place a reservation if they feel like restaurants won’t be busy due to a virus, but they still go there

This includes walk-ins - anyone who sits down in the restaurant to eat.

How do you get data for walk-ins? Do restaurants share that with OpenTable, regardless of reservation? Is this so that you can remove the table from your inventory, or because you provide their "seating management" software?

Both — but primarily because we're their table management system.

This has a huge impact on the restaurants bottom line, but honestly, surprised the numbers aren't worse. I hope they can weather these bad times.

Does anyone know if they quit updating or if it just takes until later in the day to post? I see up to and including March-15 but as of now, 11:07a CDT, there is nothing for 3/16. What do you all know / think?

COVID-19 is going to wreck economies. We are all thinking that closures and social distancing will end in a month, maybe two. This process will unfold over many months, perhaps years. Every city and country is handling this differently. We have containment measures in some US cities and states and then Florida hosting an event with 50,000 visitors. Sure, we can reduce infections in North Carolina, but then these 50,000 will disperse and bring infections back again through out the country. The only end game here is everyone gets infected, we develop a vaccine, or in unison we lockdown every country and city for a fixed period of time, say 45-60 days (never going to happen). And if COVID-19 mutates? We restart the whole process. I bet many of us are still in lock down mode come fall 2020 and even into 2021.

how many small and medium businesses can meet obligations with basically 0 revenue for a month? The ripple effects will be huge.

I don't think many of us will be in lock down mode continuously until fall 2020 -- we don't have the will for that.

No snowflake in an avalanche feels responsible. That's okay, because they're snowflakes, not people. People should have enough respect for their fellow humans (and for themselves!) not to attend any large events at this time.

Source: haven't interacted in-person with another human in the last ~30 hours precisely because staying home is the right thing to do for our fellow humans at this time. Leading by example is one of the most powerful ways to lead.

im surprised new york dropped by so much (up to 50%). Is everyone just cooking in their micro-appartments now? Or calling takeout?

From Japan with Love: it is irresponsible to go to a restaurant at this time.

A population's safety is worth more than a couple small businesses going into mothball mode. If you want to support said small business your task is clear: ensure 110% you and your family does not get infected. Risking infection just to "save" a business is an oxymoron. These businesses are at risk because of the infections, their pain will continue until the entire population treats the virus seriously and contains it.

If you want to help restaurants: stay home.

There has to be a trade-off between "social distancing" and being a productive human being which can afford to buy food and medicine and can go to the store to get the goods.

One could make an argument that is more socially responsible to go to a small restaurant than to a crowded store.

as stated maybe that sounds true, but you can visit a crowded store once with one person and then feed a family of multiple people for a week (perhaps 21 meals).

Multiple people have to visit a restaurant once for each 1 meal.

So on the whole it would seem to scale much better if 1 person per household visits the store once per week, and the store should also not be super "crowded" if everyone is doing the same.

sure, but in practice that ain't gonna happen. My point was about an average trip to a restaurant vs average shopping.

If we are talking about the scenario with the minimal possible risk a restaurant could still beat the shop. You are going to drive through or pick up a pizza that you order online, so you spend a few minutes per meal with a limited number of people, say, for 21 meals, you have contacted 50 people. No need to touch trolleys, bags, boxes of pasta that people sneezed on. At home you reheat the pizza in the oven to kill the viruses.

> The Institute of Transportation Engineers estimates that one Walmart super center receives 10,000 car visits per day

Also, while you're at home, you can call them up and purchase a gift certificate. It is interest-free financing for the restaurant at a time when free cash-flow is desperately needed, and it shows them that you care.

Only down 50%? What kind of numbskulls are eating out at reservation restaurants during an uncontained pandemic?

I ate out twice today. Maybe a numbskull but I honestly don’t care if I get this virus. I’m probably an idiot for that. But I don’t access my personal risk any more than the normal flu seasons.

Edit to note; both restaurants were packed. I’m not alone in this mindset

FWIW: I'm not super anti-restaurant personally. I think a certain amount of social contact needs to be allowed (because it's inevitable) unless the numbers are clearly showing a huge risk (and they aren't yet -- cases are growing fast but outside of Milan not at a level where you're likely to see a sick person on a regular basis).

That said: your analysis is wrong. You can be contagious without showing symptoms, so the risk your assessing is NOT your "personal risk". You're increasing the risk to others too simply by being around them.

I know that. But guess what, that other person is out in public too. If their risk tolerance is such that they absolutely do not want to get sick & risk taking it home to their elderly parent, well that’s fine but, they need to self quarantine. My point is I have a higher risk tolerance level in terms of contracting the virus from a non-symptomatic stranger in public because 1) i don’t mind being sick enough to limit my activities 2) I can control my exposure to high risk people except in public spaces (again, if you’re high risk, why are you in public - that’s on you).

What you all are implying is that anything less than complete mandatory quarantine is the correct course of action. I just don’t agree with this doomsday situation given what I know about this virus at this point. Even 2 degrees of separation from confirmed cases isn’t being taken this seriously by the CDC/medical community. And you’re essentially telling me I’m an idiot and negligent/malicious person for going out in public with no other reason to believe it’s unsafe. I just happen to believe nobody is negligent in these situations and the responsibility lies with those at risk to reduce their risk profile.

If many low-risk persons like you still spread it widely enough, enough of them will still be hospitalised at the same time to overload the medical system, thereby putting others at risk.

Consider this: you're some random person going against the advice of experts. If you're right, great, you've been able to eat out. If you're wrong, you've contributed to significant suffering of other people. Is that something you want to risk based on your self-confidence? Is that something you would appreciate others risking to you based on their self-confidence?

> What you all are implying is that anything less than complete mandatory quarantine is the correct course of action.

No. I'm saying you shouldn't be morally rationalizing it as you accepting a "personal" risk. Any contact is a risk to everyone, and you need to accept that.

NOR can you rationalize the chance of infecting others at the restaurant as "their personal risk", for exactly the same reason! Any transmission is a transmission, and it can lead to others. We're trying to keep the number of transmissions low so it doesn't grow out of control.

Now, again: unless you're in a major hot spot a single restaurant visit is (probably) a tolerable risk. But it is not and cannot be understood as a "personal" decision. It's still an increase in pandemic risk and needs to be understood that way.

> It's still an increase in pandemic risk and needs to be understood that way.

It’s not mutual exclusive. I do get your point. But if restaurants are open and government allows them to remain open then this is a personal risk assessment as to how much public and other people handling your food you are willing to accept. That’s what I mean.

Personally, I think the real numbskulls are the people who came into this unprepared and went off to line up by the dozens at grocery stores so they could hoard toilet paper.

Lots of them. I'm a manager at a popular niche restaurant chain. Our cancellations yesterday were up 200%, but the empty spots were filled almost immediately.

One of our employees has quit already (as of now, we don't offer any time off/paid leave). I've had a conversation with my bosses that I'll probably be gone in the next two weeks.

I was hoping OpenTable released this data grouped by cuisine so we can better understand the claims that "racism" is causing more economic pain for Chinese restaurants.

Anecdotally, I have a friend who runs a middle eastern restaurant near a handful of popular Chinese restaurants. Early on, before there was any realistic threat to the area, but after it was known that a new disease was coming out of China, the middle eastern restaurant started surging in popularity because people were avoiding the Chinese ones all of a sudden.

I don’t think it’s racism, but I definitely believe the claim is real

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