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onetimemanytime

This will be over--one way or another--in 2 months.

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What makes you say that? This could stretch over a year. We have already been 3 months and nowhere near peak yet.

At the current exponential rate of worldwide growth, by the end of June, we will be in one of these two scenarios:

1) Almost everyone in the world who is susceptible has it, or had it.

2) We implemented a way to slow down the global growth rate, or it slowed down by itself.

One way or another, we will know in a just a few months.

If you want to check the math, skip to about 3:20 on this video from 3Blue1Brown, Exponential growth and epidemics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

I assume you think so because it looks like 'standard' influenza which has a hard time surviving in spring. It's understandable to think that, problem is it's completely not known whether this virus also behaves like that.

SARS dissipated quite quickly come the warmer months, hopefully this similar coronavirus does as well. It's the best we can hope for right now.

It's the end of summer in Brazil, and they have 151 cases. Unfortunately, that makes me think summer is not going to stop this one.

SARS was highly invective several days after first symptoms. SARS stooped because people who had it could be contained. There is no evidence that warmer months helped in any way. It's one of these modern myths or however we call them.

> influenza which has a hard time surviving in spring

The problem is than when we will reach summer, half of the planet will start the winter. A interesting question is if the coronavirus will be able to hide in the southern hemisphere or not. That would start and endless migration cycle from now on.

That seems optimistic considering it's been months getting to this point and we're not even at the peak of anything.

This is absolutely what we don't want to happen. If this is over in 2 months, there will be a lot of dead people. We want to stretch this out. We need to not overwhelm our healthcare system. Social distancing does not prevent the spread of the disease, it merely slows it until either we gain herd immunity or we develop a vaccine.

It might come back in October, and Trump declared emergency probably too late. I think we've reached the point where we will see a LOT of infections and deaths. There was /is a chart that showed how it behaves and how counties were just a week or two behind an Italian scenario. States are reporting that thousands and thousands have been infected and those will infect many more https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-limits-crowds-prep...

a lot of people died in Italy https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

It might not go away. And he did declare the emergency too late. And even after declaring the emergency, the federal government is still not doing enough, and it's especially not doing it fast enough.

I think we are at the point where we will see a lot of infections. I think we will see a lot of death from this as well, but it will be at the lower end of the case fatality rate range as long as we can do the things we need to in order to not overwhelm our healthcare system. If however I am wrong, and we do overwhelm the healthcare system like they did in Italy, yea, there is going to be a lot more death.

Taking the exponential growth into account, we're somewhere around 11 days behind Italy. Unless something drastic changes in the next few days, whatever Italy is going through now, is what we will be going through in only 11 days.

See the chart in this article for details on the 11 day difference. https://www.econlib.org/the-answer-one-week/

Well I've been WFH since last week and my kids schools have shut down through the end of April. Our family vacation in April is also likely not going to happen. We are doing better than Italy, worst than other countries. I think you are underestimating the work of our State and Local governments despite the fact that the Federal government has bumbled this.

I hear what you're saying. The steps we have already taken are good.

Here is why I don't think they are enough.

1) Isolation is not uniform across the country. Some people are working from home. Others aren't. Some schools are closed. Some aren't. Some trips are cancelled. Some planes are still flying with some people. There are still large areas of the country where it's spreading with little or no isolation. The cases there will grow, and walk across state borders.

2) It's not enough, yet. We have some isolation in some spots. But there's not yet even one single spot with measures as drastic as are needed to stop this.

Italy has had stricter measures than the US in place for a little while, and the number of new people seeking hospital care per day is still growing.

The places which have successfully turned this thing around have put measures in place much more drastic than the US, and on a consistent national basis.

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I guess we disagree about the US being more isolated than Italy or not. I think Italy has more isolation in place. Please let me know in what ways things here are more isolated than Italy.

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