Seattle lab uncovered coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulators | Hacker News Reader

Seattle lab uncovered coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulators

theweek.com

79 pointsbtilly32 comments

The plural of anecdote is not data, but here is an anecdote that should give pause.

Yesterday I took my sick daughter to a hospital to see a doctor with a fever, cough and sore throat. We were screened for strep, told it was viral and sent home with no further testing. Talking to my ex (an urgent care doctor) she said that she is still trying to find out how she can even get a test for patients of hers who fit the symptoms for COVID-19.

This is in Orange County, CA. Which has only 5 confirmed cases, but lies between Los Angeles and San Diego. Both with known community spread. I'm now more amazed that doctors in Los Angeles and San Diego were able to get tests to verify community spread than I am confident that Orange County does not.

There is a lot of theater around COVID-19. You can't even show up for a hospital visit without being asked whether or not you have the symptoms for coronavirus. But the show of looking for symptoms combined with the failure to follow up when you find them makes me think that it is mostly theater. We are taking lots of action to make you aware that we are containing the spread, but we are also avoiding finding out any potential bad news that we don't want to hear about.

Going forward I am calling this what it is. "Public health theater."

We're at war. War against the "foreign" coronavirus. But instead of fighting the war, we're sticking our fingers in our ears and shouting "lalalalalala!" because for some reason, lower numbers helps certain people politically.

It is criminal.

Among the eye-opening deficiencies across our efforts to contain the disease, the most stupefying is the the inability to conduct adequate testing. It would appear there is a variety of factors at play, including red tape, bureaucracy, logistical failure, and incompetent decision making. But it really has been shocking at how utterly disastrous this aspect of the response has been. Especially so given that the entity appearing deserving most of the blame for this particular problem is the CDC, which I think many of us considered unimpeachable up until now.

It's striking how the hubris and organizational failure in the decision making process developing these tests seems to mimic some of the fiascos that occur in the tech industry, though in hindsight I don't know why any large organization wouldn't be susceptible.

The White House wouldn't let the WHO tests be used. They also delayed allowing new tests to be developed.

I'm sure the CDC is to blame for some of this, but the WH is more so.

Cite, please. The FDA and CDC bureaucracies are the groups hewing to the Business As Usual rule following. No need for the WH to reject WHO tests, the FDA is happy to fill that role.

The WH is ultimately responsible for the FDA/CDC, but if the Cabinet level needs to intervene to get the massive Federal government acting with urgency to this sort of threat, we should eliminate Civil Service protections and give Agency heads a bigger stick pour encourager les autres.

Not much better here: You're only tested for the virus if you had contact with someone who has previously been tested positive. That's the policy. A colleague comes back from an conference (embedded systems, international attendees,...) and develops symptoms the next week - but because no-one at the conference was a confirmed positive case, he's not tested (just sent home, no quarantine). I'm now also in home office, but developed symptoms on the last day at the office (not saying it's corona, more likely my slight cold just spiked randomly).

I understand it's unlikely and not everyone who has a cold needs to be tested [-> no need to test me], there is just not enough capacity. But missing a single case like these conference-goers wreaks real havoc when combined with that policy... Well, at least the number of infected in the state stayed at 14/1M the last few days. Not sure how that's possible with exponential spread and the first general containment measures only starting next week (though today it "finally" increased to 29).

Where is here? The Danish government has moved from testing people with symptoms and people returning from high risk areas, to just testing people with symptoms. And encouraging those with mild symptoms to avoid calling hotlines, rather focusing on those who have severe symptoms, since the government no longer believes it can contain the spread.

Here is Germany.

I don't think testing provides much benefit now. Containment is not an option.

There isn't really a specific treatment plan so I don't think testing is necessary for anyone at this point.

I'd say just recommend everyone minimize social contact and self isolate if you have any symptoms at all to try to minimize the peak that hospitals are dealing with.

Hopefully there is a reliable treatment plan soon, maybe that is inexpensive with little side affects that they can just hand out like candy for everyone with any symptoms that might be COVID19.

As they should. Most people will be okay following the same protocol as they would the flu.

Stay hydrated, keep your fever down, relax. If your fever is uncontrollable and you're having trouble breathing, you need more serious attention.

"Testing" and figuring out that the cause of your symptoms is/ is not SARS2-CoV doesn't change the course of treatment. There's no wonder drug.

The difference is in the quarantine: If I have to assume it's SARS2-CoV, I don't leave the house, my partner should stay at home as well because she's most likely also infected by now; also we need to get someone to bring us supplies some time the next week before ours run out. We just had that very drill a month ago due to a viral infection (medication only eased symptoms, all we had to sit it out and follow the usual hygienic/no-social-contacts rules not infect others).

Question is: What's the threshold? Can I trust external data or do I need to assume it's too imprecise?

Now if I knew that I'm most likely not infected (-> potential importers tested) I would still stay at home (in home office now anyway) and reduce social contact, but I could get supplies for family/friends who are quarantined. If I knew I wasn't infected prior to staying at home (-> everyone tested), and if I started developing symptoms, I would know that it's highly unlikely that I was infected and could thus reduce the load on the doctor/hospital (edit: I have "respiratory precondition", hence it seems I can't just say "well, I'm young and healthy, worst case I sleep it out").

The NYT article linked in this article has a lot more, posted here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22542662

The NYT article is behind a paywall.

Coronavirus coverage is no longer behind a paywall for the NYT. They've made it free for everyone.

https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus

That may be, but when I click on the NYT link for the article, I get the following: https://imgur.com/aionwnv

Not technically a paywall, but certainly a wall.

The cite doesn't mention it, but the NYT article reports the Washington State public health authorities shut down Dr. Chu, not the Feds.

"While acknowledging the ethical questions, Dr. Chu and others argued there should be more flexibility in an emergency during which so many lives could be lost. On Monday night, state regulators told them to stop testing altogether."

What happens to all of the other people who need surgery if hospitals face a thundering hurd problem when thousands of people find out they have COVID-19?

I am on the fence with knowing or not knowing. The lack of information is causing panic buying. I went to Wholefoods this morning and people are cleaning out the shelves. They are buying stuff they would not normally buy. The butcher told be when they order 100 cases from a distributor they are only getting 50 or less. This panic buying is really creating a problem. If shelves go empty and stay empty, what happens?

The vast majority of infections are mild. Roughly 15% require medical intervention (beyond self-quarantine), and of that, less than 1 in 3 require ICU care. 100K infections is roughly 15K medical intervention, with 5K in the ICU.

When this is over, there will be a list of heroes who helped make this less bad than it could have been. A lot of scientists are going to be on that list - including Dr. Chu, the people who sequenced and characterized the virus, the people who developed medications and vaccines, etc. Some will be governors and mayors and health directors who also defied the national government to take stronger measures than that government was recommending. Still others will be doctors and epidemiologists on the front lines, physical therapists helping people recover, industrial engineers and logistics specialists who increase supply of necessities, etc.

I regret that I don't know many of the names, even those who have already made noteworthy contributions. (Feel free to add some.) My real point is that, as we stew in our collective fear/anxiety, we should also take solace in the fact that this situation is also bringing out the absolute best in a great many people. Think of them.

A possibly better source here https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-uncovered-...

Mynorthwest is sort of an AM radio/crackpot theories/nasty racist comments section kind of place. Some of their articles (and this seems to be one) are solid, but as a rule it's a highly suspect source of news.

On topic: Hard to imagine how much more fucked we'd be if we hadn't sampled and found the virus for another 2 weeks or whatever. Good on these guys, just another way that the flu project is paying off up here.

The week seems okish. I love article how Senegal in Africa can have test results in 4 hours, and now they develop handheld device for testing

Not sure if it is real or parody.

Thankfully so because this likely forced officials hands to take stronger action. Unfortunately, sick people, including those with direct COVID-19 exposure, are still being refused tests:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/coronavirus-testing-ch...

She broke HIPPAA and a variety of other laws regarding patient consent.

We shouldn't throw the rulebook out the window during a panic. That's how we ended up with the TSA and Snowden in exile.

Congratulations nonetheless, Dr Chu.

It is apparent that the rulebook as it stands is perhaps the largest factor in impeding the ability to respond to this crisis, so yes, at least some of the rulebook clearly needs to be thrown out.

I don't disagree. So call your congressman and tell him you want it changed

It's possible that the government had to make sure that the Coronavirus would take hold in the US first. Otherwise the Fed would not have had a sufficiently good excuse to justify their $1.5 trillion cash injection into the financial system.

[citation needed]

Citations require studies. Studies require funding. Funding requires institutional support. These kinds of accusations against institutions are not fundable; does that mean they're not worth discussing?

Speculation is better than silence because there are gaps in the system which can easily be exploited by institutions to serve their own interests.

In an era where people have demonstrated an inability to responsibly fact-check for themselves, I think it's actually an open question whether speculation is better than silence (depending on what forum one is operating in).

Not sure why this is downvoted. Crony capitalism needs these events to redirect more money to the beneficiaries.

All hidden losses from the past 4 years will be booked in the Coronavirus quarter and then it is bailout time again.

Exactly, it would be naive to assume that the Fed didn't indentify and take advantage of this opportunity to bail out their cronies. The boom has lasted 10 years, that's about as long as these things typically last.

Other countries will also follow suite. But it's good to see that countries like Australia are doing cash injections the right way. In the Australia, they did a much smaller AUD $17 billion cash injection but they gave money to senior citizens instead of big financial institutions.

Welfare is meant for the poor and vulnerable, not for the rich.

I think I misinterpreted your original statement. When you said "It's possible that the government had to make sure that the Coronavirus would take hold in the US first," I thought you meant "An agent of the US government literally dropped a vial of victim spit in JFK airport, 12-Monkeys style." Apologies if I misunderstood you.

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