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Comment by PeterStuer | Hacker News Reader

There's sooooo many lies being propagated by different governments on the true state of things. This afternoon I watched a live broadcast of parliament in which the minister of health claimed Belgium was doing far more extensive testing than any other country on earth. This at a time when standing instructions to medical personnel are to only test people that are already admitted to hospital because of severe pulmonary conditions. It is impossible to get a test under any other circumstance as all test request have to follow a central approvement procedure and non are approved barring these conditions.

These outright lies are propagated by the political parties that are far more concerned with 'the economy' than with any public health. It is really saddening that his is going on.

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The surgeon general just gave a press conference in Baton Rouge with the governor of Louisiana saying we should only test people (or prioritize testing of) people with symptoms. This when we know asymptomatic people can be contagious for days.

The Port of New Orleans is testing embarking cruise ship passengers but not disembarking (!) ones. This when we have community spread in the parish already and have gone from 1 to 6 to 11 cases this week alone.

> we know asymptomatic people can be contagious for days

Although it is technically correct, this is the least contagious way. AFAIK most sick people were near sick persons for a considerable amount of time.

[0] https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/kenkou_iryo...

Your link is giving a 404. (It looks like it's pasted in twice.) And with regard to the cruise ships, see Question 13 of your linked FAQ.

It seems false positives are a real thing [1] but can we afford even one asymptomatic infected individual that might be a super spreader? In shifting away from containment are we just accepting these?

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22566923

His link had the url twice concatenated. If you remove that part then it works [1]. Here is a google translation of the relevant section:

> Although the possibility of transmission from an asymptomatic person has been reported （https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468）, little is known on how Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreads from person to person. Generally speaking, with most respiratory viruses, people are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...

That CDC link [2] states that:

> People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

[1] https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/kenkou_iryo...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...

As to my second point, the Japanese are not letting people disembark cruise ships willy-nilly without being tested as per that link

> There's sooooo many lies being propagated by different governments

Just a question, if I may: how do you know that? Which international sources do you have that justify you releasing such a strong statement?

Over here, the parliamentary debate was streamed publicly. The instructions issued to medical personnel are also posted public.

There were HUGE discrepancies between those 2 sources of 'information', the quotes being added for the former case.

As such I have 100% certainty. I was validated later that night when despite our health minister claiming that 'we have it 100% under control' and our prime minister stating we were NOT going to be moving beyond 'stage 2' for now, a few hours later we moved to 'stage 3' and declared a national emergency.

Now for the speculation: Among those closer and more knowledgeable than me the rumor has it the health sector threatened the government to go public with the real state of affairs in the hospitals and in first line care if they would continue to refuse to take serious action.

I've seen English politicians constantly boast on TV that they've caught it very early and they've done better than anyone in the world...

As a UK citizen I am honestly terrified by my governments response and actions. In years to come I fear it’s going to be the textbook example of exactly how not to manage these types of situations.

I thought that - but then I watched today's press conference with the chief scientific adviser and chief medical adviser. They made some very good cases for not locking stuff down just yet.

Primarily you need to consider the behaviour of people. This is going to go on for a while no matter what we do and if we lockdown people now, by the time we hit the peak they will be ready to give up and go outside again. We need to save the drastic measures for the peak in order to spread the damage out and make sure they are effective. I was previously critical of the government but honestly I think it makes a lot of sense.

We need to consider the effectiveness of measures. Banning all flights into the US from Europe may sound like a grand plan but in reality it's not going to make a big dent and the economic damage is going to be huge. But it sounds good and in the current climate where we're being led by panic that's the plan people will like.

Until today, European airlines were flying empty “ghost” planes because they had no passengers, but they wanted to keep their landing slots.

Yesterday I talked to a colleague who relayed the story of a transatlantic flight this week, where only 6 seats were filled, out of 36 in the section.

I don’t think there’s much remaining travel left to be banned. The resulting economic impact therefore can’t be that big.

>> The resulting economic impact therefore can’t be that big.

The impact on the spread of the virus can't be that big either. My point though is that big flashy moves like banning all flights appear to do very little compared to more mundane tactics. At least based on the info in the press conference I'm referring to the data doesn't support flight bans, banning large gatherings etc.

You shouldn't discount the psychological factor of these things. Today, 1 day after the big move by the US to ban flights from Europe, we're seeing a lot more movement from various governments and states in taking action against the virus' spread. So even though the action itself might not be that useful, it's big enough that it gets people attention and it seems to have moved people across governments into more action.

True but I'd still go back to the UK advice: the virus is going to spread (we aren't going to stop it) so we need to focus on spreading the peak out so we can deal with it. If we force people to make drastic changes too early (well before the peak) then when we actually need them to make those changes (just before the peak) they will be burnt out and won't do it nearly as effectively.

Until recently I would have said the same thing as you, but I'm increasingly convinced that the drastic changes (closing schools, social distancing etc) are exactly what we should be doing to spread the peak out.

The peak is coming either way. Continuing to allow people to mix with each other as normal will make it steeper and more intense.

This article [0] makes the case well.

[0] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

> We need to save the drastic measures for the peak.

If you only act when you hit the peak, any measures will be moot. Countries need to act now to reduce that peak and flatten the curve.

But sure, why not letting thousands of Atletico supporters into Liverpool, while Madrid has 1k+ cases. Was it also a "drastic measure" to play a football match behind closed doors?

I'd suggest watching the government press conference today where the chief science advisor + medical officer explain it. They explain exactly why you're wrong (and I'm more inclined to believe them after hearing them make the case).

> "Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely," he said.

> "Also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission.”

They’re not acting only when the peak hits. They’re staging the response.

More serious measures come in as the number of transmission go up. And that’s all about managing the resources of the NHS over a long period of time.

Introduce lockdown now, sure, you delay the peak. But you don’t spread it out over a longer time period. People will stop caring and start ignoring advice.

The timing is critical.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51865915

I concur.

Boris Johnson looked very tired, but actually - and I can’t believe I think this - did a good job yesterday.

I was thinking after — they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Many people seem to want draconian measures now, judging from the WhatsApp photos going around.

Then there’s the markets etc etc who want stability etc.

The “any fever or persistent cough = self isolate” was a good call i think.

It takes a lot of untested sick people - potential cases - out of circulation before all hell breaks loose.

It buys time with minimum disruption - many people might take the time off sick anyway if they’re already ill.

Also buys time to implement infra. and org. planning.

One thing I don't understand is how the UK infection rate has stayed so low up until now. It seems to be pretty much blind luck.

They dont test people, its that simple.

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