Murphy's law is not a joke !
dis.weebly.com
dis.weebly.com
Yes, good link. I don't agree with the other comment to your post, but that is not the point.
An important factor to take in account and that you didn't talk about is the cost of a try. Some can be cheap and some are expensive. The eralier one fails, the cheaper it is.
YC makes it all very cheap to increment your n. The selection process allows you to fail very early and thus with minimal cost. Some see their dreams fell in pieces. But they should see the positive side of it. They could have borrowed love money, spend it all and fail. Would mom and pop be able to see that the idea is bogus, would they be objective and honnest enough to recognize it, even to themselves ? I wouldn't bet on this.
I am just repeating in my words what PG said. I fully agree with his analysis and the YC combinator success confirms its validity. But apparently some people (like Jay) don't get it.
If I had the money, I would join YC as coinvestor. Not because there might be money to do out it. Just because it is usefull for these kids. There alot of smart kids out there that simply don't, and won't, have their chance. What a waste for them and for us all. I would do it as a long term investment with most probably no direct return for me. Maybe their first project will go nowhere, but the second, third our fourth may be the hit. Investing in these kids is doing something very usefull for them, for the added value they will bring to internet users, the economy, etc.
This startup news stand is also a really usefull thing and not only for people in SV. Thanks.