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Comment by kaiabwpdjqn | Hacker News Reader

And what if China is wrong, lying, or only temporarily correct, causing the virus to resurface when society resumes?

> only temporarily correct

FWIW this is not uncommon with pandemics. For example, WHO[0] says "During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave."

For example, during the spanish flu, the second wave was far deadlier than the first. But there were additional factors (WWI and a mutation that made it more dangerous to the young).

This can continue until enough of the population has been infected that we have herd immunity. This is why there's long-term estimates of 20-60% of population being infected[1][2]

[0] http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseas...

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/europe/coronavirus-...

[2] https://www.axios.com/congressional-physician-predicts-75-15...

So here’s my question. China seems to have done a good job locking down Beijing and preventing an outbreak there. They did not do a good job in Wuhan. Per what you have described above, doesn’t it seem probable that Beijing will see a resurfacing given that relatively few people were exposed to it in the first bout?

Seems likely to me personally but only time will tell. In any case it probably won't be until after the initial panic & quarantine, when regular flights and travel and economic activity resume

Nobody knows if the virus will resurface or not, but China has no motivation to lie and just let people to have the disease since it's very costy to cure people.

However, China is motivated to resume society of other cities otherwise more people will get into economical troubles and it spirals.

>but China has no motivation to lie

You do not know much about China, do you?

President Xi's job (and possible life) is on the line if he fails. The CCP MUST be seen as perfect and Uncle Xi will ensure it is perfect by lying to anyone and everyone.

Genuine question, how does "lying to everyone" cure people?

They’re not lying. I live in Shanghai. Things are kind of going back to normal. The rumor mill says schools may open up again in April. If the coronavirus wasn’t under control it would be impossible to hide. Without public health measures it has a doubling time of four to five days. The health system here would be overwhelmed and it would be obvious to all that it was. I’m not saying the numbers the CPC are publishing are entirely accurate but the trend in cases definitely is. Given strong enough public health measures this can be brought under control. It’s now in over a hundred countries so there will be further outbreaks but with sufficient measures we can limit the deaths until a vaccine is developed.

What’s been going on in Shanghai? How serious has the lockdown been?

Then there are still some drugs in the pipeline which are proofen to be safe + helpful and only need official approval (if you trust China on that).

This is likely going to happen; right now things are shutting down, people are paying more attention to personal hygiene, etc. But once this settles down again, people will go back to their old habits. Come fall, it'll probably rise again fast.

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