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Comment by dboreham | Hacker News Reader

>but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

How does it spread then? Seems hard to believe all these people are being infected through hand shakes or being coughed on.

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I'm just going to quote the CDC again, because public health authorities are really the best sources of information we have and I don't want to participate in the "telephone" effect that paraphrasing begets:

> The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

> * Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).

> * Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

> These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...

As a non-expert on coughing dynamics, it seems incredible that one person can infect 50 others by this mechanism (reported New Rochelle transmission from one patient, confirmed by contact tracing and testing contacts).

At a carnival party in Germany with 350 guests, more than 40 were infected by a single guest. That gives an idea how well it spreads in enclosed spaces. You can assume there was somewhat close contact, but I've been to business meetings with also at least 5-10 people <6ft from me. That's how it can spread through a company within days.

I have not been to carnival parties for 20 odd years, but as I remember them (in NL/border with DE), everyone is drunk, hugging, kissing (often on the mouth with perfect strangers), vomiting, not washing hands after toilet (is there a toilet even??), falling over each other and also having sex. Maybe times have changed, but if it still is remotely like that I can definitely see someone infecting 40+ other people.

I mean, we have city parties here 'for all the family' which result in everyone touching each other (just as friends mostly of course but still touching hands, shoulders, neck, face, back), kissing (mostly on cheeks with strangers, but you mostly 'friendly' kiss everyone meet/talk/dance with and otherwise shake hands or even both) but all the other factors do apply as well; bad/no toilets, no soap/water, everyone drunk so who washes their hands anyway, vomiting and not being so careful with putting your sleeve in front of your face when you sneeze or cough... I only go during the day to such things if I go at all (when most people can still walk up straight) because it is rather disgusting after a while (I am old; I used to like that when I was young), but I can see a few people infecting basically everyone if they are popular/drunk enough.

Hmm... if this is true: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-...

How do we explain spreading from asymptomatic people? They're not sneezing.

Droplets from a sneeze can take hours to drop down.

And it’s the small droplets that float around the longest. These penetrate deep into your lungs and get stuck there.

Thanks, that's interesting and not something I've heard before. I think the CDC etc should make this clear : it isn't "an infected person sneezing near you" but "a volume of air into which someone has sneezed in the past few hours". If people knew this I think they would be more inclined to accept the distancing measures.

It gets mathematical and statistical really fast.

So there's a constant conflict between simple and easy to understand but not totally correct info, and scientifically correct but incomprehensible to most info.

Someone sneezing in your face = really bad. Someone sneezing an hour ago vs. touching something they just sneezed on... hard to say which is worse.

I get the statistical mechanics aspect, but surely saying "It can spread through the air in enclosed spaces up to <x> m and for <y> s" is understandable by anyone?

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