If you are otherwise healthy, this is like getting a cold with a fever for a week, then feeling better.
Sure, call it a pandemic, because it is worldwide. But honestly it's just not that remarkable. This isn't some godly virus with 25% death rates!
If you are otherwise healthy, this is like getting a cold with a fever for a week, then feeling better.
Sure, call it a pandemic, because it is worldwide. But honestly it's just not that remarkable. This isn't some godly virus with 25% death rates!
The trouble is that (1) the people who need hospital to be fine need hospital. They won't be fine if it isn't there, and (2) by being a selfish ass and treating it like just the flu, when it's a disease that grows exponentially in a no-immunity population, people are amplifying the speed and height of the peak, which means not enough hospital places.
If you get a situation where effectively nobody who needs hospital can get it - then those 20-ish percent just drop dead. And then there's your godly death rate.
This is a new thing and you should treat it as a new thing. There has not in living memory been one this bad, against which we had no defense except to avoid catching it and spreading it.
That's part of the problem; even if it was "just like the flu" (it is not; in particular the percentage of cases requiring advanced medical treatment is much higher, which will lead to a rise in mortality as that treatment is oversubscribed), the flu would be pretty scary if the annual vaccine didn't exist.
The flu is actually quite scary - they are the frog in hot water.
2% of those infected with influenza (estimated, 4% of those who sought medical intervention) in 2017-2018 required hospitalization.
Unless there's information that's not making it out of Italy, the death statistics reported today don't seem to align with the picture painted by those tweets.
It is remarkable in that it is novel, but that's mostly it.
Please educate yourself: https://www.flattenthecurve.com/
Which is that entire communities can be infected in a very short amount of time, overwhelming local medical infrastructure and resulting in deaths and harm because the doctors simply can't keep up. What was originally something that could be treated then becomes life threatening.
“Earlier in the epidemic, there was hope that 3.5 percent was grossly overestimated, however as evidence continues to emerge, there is dwindling support for that hope.”
Please also note that many people who require intensive care but survive are left with huge chronic damage to their lungs that will affect their quality of life for the rest of their lives.
[1] https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/evitiamo-i... (Italian)
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_ag...
> "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care." [Emphasis mine]