The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders

90% of those will be willing to make them up to get there

90% of those will add as many steps as it takes to make the point they were trying to make, probably one about difficulty of getting from one step to the next

90% of those will be willing to publish those made up statistics

100% of those will lose a chunk of credibility by doing so.

Here he's saying that 20% of developers want to launch a startup, and that you can further subdivide each group into another group that is 20% of the size of the previous group. That doesn't make sense to me as an application of the 80-20 rule other than that there's a 20% in there.

Edit: here's an explanation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

ADDED IN EDIT: I think it was Heinlein .. stand by ...

Yup, here it is:

http://technologydesignconsultants.com/InterestingDocuments/...

I won't submit that link as a separate HN item because I don't want scribd to get it.

He starts with an estimate of 100 million for the literate adult population, and says that half claim they want to write.

* 90% never write, then

* 90% never finish, then

* 90% re-write endlessly, then

* 90% never put it on the market, then

* 90% don't keep it on the market.

That leaves 500. He then quotes that in a survey by the Authors' League of America, 400 stated that they supported themselves and their families through writing.

When I look back, I see a very clear pattern of working my way through this funnel. A decade ago, I dropped an idea in an early stage because the consulting $ was too good. Five years ago I built a product, but was nervous to release it because it wasn't "perfect". Last week I launched a product at Startup Riot and had a blast. It was an awesome experience.

Remember Edison. With each attempt, you get closer to success.

"Our best estimates put the number of developers in the world at around 5 million."

It would be nice to see how they got that estimate but for arguments sake, I still like where the breakdown is going.

I can come up with many random variables, and feed these numbers through it to come up with the last 1.

of those, 20% have enough free-time to commit to the needs of their startup?

of those, 20% have the sales skill to get other people involved.

Of those, ...

I suspect there are far more than 1600 who have and will achieve 'some measure of success'.

Hey now, we can't all be Edsger Dijkstra.

Our best estimates put the number of x in the world at around y.

Applying the 80/20 rule you can estimate:

Of those, 20% (y(.2)) want to z

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)) have enough motivation to start educating themselves about the process

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually start building something

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually finish building something

Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) have prepared themselves enough to achieve some measure of success