Shutting down schools is almost assuredly an effective measure to slow the spread of the disease. And slowing the spread is the overriding public health imperative. Even if the same number of people get infected, fast transmission means the healthcare system gets overloaded with all the patients at once.
A 5% reduction in the rate of transmission could plausibly reduce the number of fatalities by 50% or more. We need to do everything possible to institute "social distancing" to slow the process done.
First, like you very astutely pointed out, stop making school mandatory. Even encourage families to keep kids home if they have childcare available. That probably entails ceasing any academics, since parents will otherwise feel pressured to keep their kids in school lest they fall behind.
Second, we can keep kids isolated in small groups, so they're not intermingling as is typical during a school day. A child should be assigned to a single pod, and only interact with his assigned pod for the remainder of the epidemic. Obviously childcare workers should be assigned a single pod, and stay in that pod. The smaller we can sub-divide pods, the better.
Finally big common activities, like lunch or recess should be staggered so that kids aren't ever exposed to anyone else outside their pods. Other than that pods should stay confined to the same classroom for the duration of the epidemic. Pods should probably be assigned based on busing routes, so that kids only bus with their pod.
Here's a problem: what's the difference between state-provided daycare and school, from an infectious disease standpoint?
Both are a bunch of kids in one building, attended to by adults. Both will require busing kids to said building, with buses driven by adults.
Might as well just leave the schools open.
I don't have a solution, just pointing out that daycare == school for this situation, so closing schools but providing daycare in it's stead won't make a difference.
2. When it gets bad, schools will be closed anyways, and parents will need to figure out how to handle childsitting.
3. The longer we delay closure, the worse off everyone else will be.
Isn't this the underlying plot of Maze Runner, and a bunch of other books/movies?
A decade of young adult fiction dystopian worlds of only young adults, followed by an actual decade of dystopian world of only young adults.