Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Why is everyone I talk to in the real world so unperturbed by Covid-19?

25 pointshandsomechad46 comments

It seems like most people I chat with on a day-to-day basis blithely brush off the risks or worry associated with coronavirus. I myself am not the alarmist or prepper type, but what I see in the real world (big metro city with multiple cases confiremed nearby) is starkly different from the attitude I see espoused here and on twitter, which is that we may be in for a black swan event that could get worse before it gets better.

I hear a lot of "it's just the flu...", "it's just the media"... etc.

What accounts for this difference, and who is more in touch with reality? It is the case that I don't work in tech any more, so maybe tech-centric communities err more on the "expect the worst" side. But that begs the question of why?

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81% of cases are mild. Most (younger) people are unlikely to develop severe or critical symptoms. However, it affects people more the older they are, and people should still be wary of the virus and practice safe hygiene - wash hands regularly with soap, use hand sanitiser, don't touch your face, sneeze and cough into a tissue or your upper arm, and isolate yourself at home if you're sick. Asymptomatic people can still carry the virus and pass it onto people who can be severely affected.

So people are unperturbed because it's unlikely to be serious for them, but they should worry about the effect it will have on the population at large.

We have not seen the impact of the virus and most people do not have a sense of how fast it can spread.

We have not seen the impact it has on hospitals. People will start to get scared once they see the hospitals getting full and the care workers starting to burnout, given the 10+% hospitalization rate. Unfortunately by that time most of us will be forced to stay home.

Look at what is happening in Italy. Only after they were forced to stay home have they finally taken the situation seriously.

The CDC has said that most of us will eventually get it. We just hope we don't all get it so fast that the hospital system is overwhelmed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

If the hospitals get massively overloaded, then people who are not sick from the coronavirus still won't be able to go because there will be no room for them, even if they need to quite desperately.

News fatigue probably. I no longer take news seriously. I know they are trying to make me worry, that's how they make money. Whatever they say is probably grossly exaggerated.

Someday it'll be like in "the boy who cried wolf", but what can I do.

Because worry is not actionable. Worrying does not achieve anything.

The actions one can take with regards to SARS-CoV-2 are limited. One can avoid being in crowded places close to others when possible, and practice careful hygiene. A minority can work from home. Americans can avoid public transit, but most urban dwellers outside the USA cannot.

I think it has a balanced chance of being overestimated or underestimated. The psychology side of me recognizes the human tendency to end up in an echo chamber(twitter, HN, etc), but the other side of me wonders if this time is really different.

Only time will tell. The only thing I am certain of is that traditional news and even twitter to a certain extent has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes, long before coronavirus was a thing. One of the few industries that will absolutely win during the next few weeks and months is news, so yeah, they don’t have the best incentives to calm people’s fears.

It's because they're still in the denial stage. The panic stage will follow very shortly. It's just a matter of social contagion.

Not really. Some people like to stock up on bottled water and toilet paper so they can play zombie apocalypse, but taking appropriate safety measures to prevent it from spreading is a sufficient response.

The run on toilet paper is what I don’t understand. I heard about it happening around the country on the radio. A guy being interviewed said something like, “toilet paper is like gold during the apocalypse.” What?!

Then a relative called me this evening to tell me about people wheeling tp out of Costco by the pallet. I was at a different store an hour ago to and the entire bath tissue isle was empty. This is in Denver. My team lead and boss (both in Toronto) were joking about it happening there too.

The only thing I can think of is that nobody wants to go into a full blown panic, yet there’s a whole lot of pent up anxiety about the situation. Somehow buying loads of tp is a kind of coping mechanism. Somebody started it, other people followed, now no there’s no tp.

My concern is that such widespread odd behavior is just the slightest hint hint of what a panic would bring.

In my part of the US, nobody's stocking up on toilet paper. In fact, nobody appears to be panic-buying anything at all except for isopropyl alcohol, which I discovered when I needed to get some for a project. There isn't a bottle of IPA of any strength to be found.

Some people like to stock up on bottled water and toilet paper so they can play zombie apocalypse,

And some people on the internet like to feel strong by putting down others for taking reasonable precautions against the prospect of forced quarantines or neighborhood lockdowns.

Calm down, guy. No one’s getting quarantined without water.

Good article. I read it after commenting below, but it definitely puts the toilet paper thing into perspective. Interesting how that crosses cultures.

I don't know about the people you're talking about, but I've been accused of insufficient concern about it myself. I don't agree with that accusation.

I am not panicking or obsessing about it, though, and I think people perceive that as being unconcerned. But it's not. I take it seriously, and engage in reasonable protective behaviors, but I am not afraid. Why? In part because there is little reason for me to be actively afraid (yet), and in part because fear is unhelpful and counterproductive.

Could this be a "black swan" event? Sure, it could. But we're not there yet, and losing sleep over it won't change the likelihood of it becoming that.

That said, what I see coming out of the US government, and particularly Trump's statements, make it much more difficult to remain calm.

Well, in my case, I was actually more worried in early February, when I did not believe that authorities in Austin, TX where I live, would take it seriously. However, they have in fact cancelled the SXSW music festival, so that we don't have thousands of people flying in from all over, mixing their air in planes, then spreading out throughout the city to breathe each other's air in packed venues.

So in this case, the fact that the authorities are starting to panic a bit, is reassuring to me.

Also, aside from not going out to big events myself, it's not like there's much I can do. It's not "quit your job and head to the hills and live off the land" time, yet, and other than washing my hands, not going to music festivals, etc. there's not a lot I can do.

https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ Is one of the best resources I’ve found and should answer most of your questions.

Not everyone has an appreciation of exponential growth. Or the proper fear of it.

3blue1brown does: https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

I think it has largely to do with people not understanding the power of exponential growth.[0] It doesn't help that the U.S. President ambiguously referred to the coronavirus as "the new hoax".[1] Nor does it help, in my mind, for the U.S. President, Surgeon General, and countless public health officials to compare the current deaths due to COVID-19 to flu deaths.[2]

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavir...

[1] https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-and-the-new-hoax/

[2] Check their official twitter accounts, press conferences, etc.

I found this so baffling that the best I can say is I don't know, and I've found no explanation satisfactory. "Denial" doesn't cut it, it's mass delusion. The first Chinese quarantine was a giant red flag that nearly everyone ignored.

This is my personal opinion and I could be 100% wrong. But I think this is no worse than crazy cow disease or Zika virus or SARS.

Media, as always, cares about clicks and will publish sensational articles. In China the virus has peaked and the president of China declared victory over the virus today. We are 2-4 weeks behind China.

It is estimated the virus will peak in 2 weeks from now. So next 2 weeks get ready for catastrophic headlines. Then eventually daily new reported cases in Italy etc will start dropping and panic will be over.

I think I have contracted the Coronavirus but since I am a healthy 31 years old person I have fought it off and defeated it.

How do you "think" you have it? Wouldn't you get quarantined if you were likely to have it?

Vast majority of people who contract the virus just have mild cold or flu symptoms. Very small percentage of infected people end up going to hospitals.

> Very small percentage of infected people end up going to hospitals.

It's 10-20% according to most estimates, enough to flood every hospital system in the world. Once that happens the death toll starts creeping towards 20% as they can't treat patients and even people otherwise treatable problems can't get treated. This is the scenario that needs to be avoided.

> Vast majority of people who contract the virus just have mild cold or flu symptoms.

Mild in the medical sense, everyone not hospitalized is considered mild. In the everyday human sense this translates from nothing to extremely sick. If your friend had pneumonia you'd be concerned for them wouldn't you? Well that's a "mild" case.

What makes you think you have contracted coronavirus and not for example the common cold?

well the number of cases in China winding down because they lockdown the whole province of 60 million people and almost stopped all activities in other parts of China. Can US afford to do that for 1 month?

Media fatigue/cynicism. In the past 10 years, we've had apocalyptic scenarios about anti-vax, Trump, Brexit, IS, trade war, property crisis, recession, climate change, US government shutdowns. Before that, there was cigarettes, obesity, food industry, big pharma, nuclear war, 9/11. We've also had Zika, SARS, MERS, Ebola.

I have no idea how scary this is because the media cries wolf all the time. Everyone cries wolf but life still goes on. So when something actually bad does happen, everyone's been desensitized to it. It's even worse today now that newsjacking is a thing.

One good resource from scientists with a "measured" opinion : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQdMHv026R0&t=637s

Interesting.

I would ask you this:

1. Which part of the world you hail from 2. The people you talk to..are they mathematically challenged or immersed in the world of numbers(doesnt necessarily have to be tech/IT)

Consider what the media stands to gain from all this frenzy. You think they want people calm or reading/watching/consooming as much as possible all hours of the day?

Use your judgement

They don't have a shortage of things to hype up, never have, but the market dropping actually hurts them.

I'll follow the money, and not conspiracy theories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

I coach youth sports and the forums are filled with angry people as high schools and colleges cancel some spring seasons.

How is getting perturbed going to help?

Would it help?

Rudolf Abel, Bridge of Spies (2015)

I think the reasons are:

1. In most places, the absolute numbers are still very low. If you look at it like "X in a million", X is still low, so it feels like there is no need to panic.

2. Continuing the above, if you compare X to something else, like "getting hit by a car" or something similar, it feels rational to not worry about Corona too much, since you're also not worrying about other things (you're used to the risks).

3. People like Trump are comparing it to the flu.

4. For most healthy, non-smoking people under 50, the risks are relatively low based on the data. Kids seem to be pretty safe from it.

5. Based on official numbers it's contained in China: more people are coming out of the disease than going in, the net number is negative, active cases is declining. [2]

However, 1. + 2. above are only re-assuring if you use the "independent events" mental model, which everyone defaults to. Eg. if you get hit by a car or you get cancer, that doesn't increase my chances. So if the probabilities are low (X in a million), and you and me getting it is independent and the probability is not increasing, then the mental model works, and it's reasonable not to worry. But this mental model is wrong here, because this is viral growth. It's spreading exponentially outside China [1]. So you getting it increases my chances of getting [eventually]. We are not indenependent. It's like the flu in this sense, but it spreads more efficicently and kills more people, so 3. above is also a wrong.

On point 4 above, let's hope this is the case. But, everyone has older/sick relatives..

On point 5 above, it'll be interesting to see how liberal democracies respond, whether they can pull the aggressive measures like curfewing the population that China did. Also, China has a lot of economic resources, not sure how smaller/weaker economies will hold up.

In conclusion, I don't think most people realize that for the next ~3 months (imo for a lot more time), their lifestyles will be drastically different. Until now we were in "1st world yolo" mode, now it'll be: no going to work, no schools, no travel, no socializing, no gym, no events.. A lot of the things we work for, live for, will be put on hold. See China, Italy.

[1] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/, look for "total cases outside of china", it's a beautiful exponential, the kind that startuppers would kill for... "viral growth"

[2] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/, look for "active cases in china"

Try telling people many if not most large organizations and elite politicians are corrupt.

They can't handle reality. Cattle, to be cliché.

I looked at reported mortality rates and infection rates. Looks just like the regular flu so far. Do you have some data that indicates otherwise?

As I understand it, the difference from flu is that it's much, much more contagious. 10 pct hospitalized is very different if there are 100,000 cases vs 100,000,000. There are roughly a million hospital beds in the U.S., I dont know how many ventilators but a lot less. The healthcare system could be easily buried if we can't "flatten the curve". The same number of people, roughly, will get sick, just not as many at a time.

But the data so far indicates it’s no more contagious than a common flu (R0: 2-4).

Are all of these 10% hospitalized were hospitalized because they are in a serious condition or because of the panic?

The fact that the panic puts a stress on the healthcare system does not mean the panic is justified.

I’m ok with the panic if the data says this is serious. So, again, do we have such data?

The mortality rate is around 1% which is more than 10 times than flu. The hospitalization rate is 15% and the ICU rate is much bigger than flu. If you run out of ICU room, more people will die.

We don't actually know the mortality rate. Or rather we don't know it defined in the way people care about ("what is the likelihood that I might die"). The closest data seems to be South Korea where they're doing mass testing, but even then, are they really doing scientifically valid random testing or are people still self selecting?

I've sort of swung back and forth on my concern levels about this, so I guess I understand the OP's concern but also the lack of concern in the people he talks to. I think it's a mix of things:

1. People learn about this via the media but a lot of people (more than half) deeply distrust the media. They think journalists lie all the time. Trust in media polls have been in decline for a long time, so when reporters turn up with "omg panic" type stories, people don't take it seriously anymore.

https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/trust-in-media-down.php

2. People have been receiving very mixed messages. It's a killer plague but it's also kinda like having a bad cold. The death rate is way higher than normal but it's 0.5% in the only country doing mass testing, which doesn't sound high. It's incredibly dangerous but it's also harmless to children and healthy adults. Thousands are dying but most of them were about to die of old age anyway. It's going to crash the economy but that's because the government is shutting everything down, not because people are actually unable to work. It's so infectious a single touch can give it to you, but it also requires standing around someone infected for 20 minutes to get it. It will infect the entire world but China's cases have already peaked. Etc etc.

It's pretty hard for people to know what to make of all this. I'm not saying the information people are getting is wrong, but it sounds contradictory and confusing.

3. If you believe it's really so infectious then there isn't much you can do. Nobody can self-isolate forever, and many can't self-isolate at all.

Low end estimates for mortality rate of covid-19 are ten times higher than regular flu.

So either: You didn’t actually look Or you looked and came to the conclusion that an order of magnitude higher mortality rate was not significant.

So what number would make you think this is worse?

When I looked at mortality rates I saw 0.6% in S. Korea where they do large scale testing.

That's a lot higher than regular flu though.

The real issue with these numbers isn't whether it's larger or a lot larger than regular flu but to what extent any of these numbers are meaningful at all. The same virus supposedly causes death rates of between 0.5% and 5%, an order of magnitude difference. Seems more likely that nobody really knows.

Also, we don't know how many people have been infected. I'm guessing for the flu we have better estimates, as it has been tracked for decades. Besides, "flu" has been a diagnosis commonly used by doctors whenever the symptoms fit. I was told I had a flu by a doctor more than once without any blood tests. So we might have another order of magnitude correction once more data is available.

Yes, it's better be safe than sorry, I get that. However we probably shouldn't use mortality rates as the main reason to panic (or not panic). I shouldn't have done that in my previous comments.

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