“I Don’t Think the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore”, Says Harvard Epidemiologist
spiegel.de
spiegel.de
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/officials-det...
Here is Marc Lipsitch quoted properly with a definition of "flattening the curve" which is the rational way to present the idea that containment is no longer possible.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-...
Containment is no longer possible because the disease is becoming globally endemic and will probably survive in successive waves over several years and the only thing under our control at this point is to prevent a spike of cases. We must dispense with the idea that our parents or grandparents can be kept in a perpetual bubble and will NEVER get the disease. We might however take steps that ensure that it unfolds slowly enough that adequate medical care will be available.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE205/history/20200310/...
Also the quality of the response matters
China closed Wuhan, but the US still allowed flights without monitoring
And there are still not enough test kits to go around
The priority now is that slow its spread as much as possible so medical resources are not overwhelmed.
The scenario of a million people sick in one month is very very different from a million people sick over 3 months.
Of course, there is the possibility that numbers jump again like crazy once the heavy restrictions are lifted. But I still wonder why there is no second Wuhan situation somewhere else in China.
The difference is that they are actually trying. We aren't, yet, but soon we will be compelled to.
I heard rumors that Chinese doctors got quotas of max cases they can report, then they have to make something else up.
Plus all other stuff that they enforce there, like mass spraying, presonal lockdowns etc. That must play role too.
Problem with China is that you can never trust what they report, as they are not allowing any outside org in to check /help/advice.
Not sure there's anything novel here. Just another epidemiologist continuing to try and get the word out and people continuing to ignore the science.
Maybe politicians will actually listen to someone from Harvard now though, one can hope.
Personally I think this entire thing is blown extremely out of proportion by the media (at least in the US, where we are rated #1 at preventing things like this). Compare it at the same time to swine flu and the results are extremely interesting.
I am all for safety and notifying the public of immediate threats, and taking the correct precautions. But, at this point it seems increasingly that these predictions and analysis are being too quickly released with not enough information so you get great amounts of speculation which therein fuels panic.