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Comment by fragsworth | Hacker News Reader

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away?

Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.

I concur with GP - but here in Australia we're run by fantasists, so it's not going to happen here either.

> Now long would you maintain that quarantine?

I'd suggest start with 2 weeks, and reassess after 10 days. I note that in TFA Italy's administration extended this (initially) out to the 3rd of April, which seems like a reasonable timeframe.

Incarcerated people rioted ... and a churlish part of my brain suggests that's just to be expected, but each nation state can learn from, and put more effort into educating than, the earlier pioneers.

> Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away?

We don't really know - but it sounds like a rhetorical question(?).

I know that I'd be happy with a two week lockdown - option to renew - here in AU ... especially if it reduced my chance of dying. The numbers cited in TFA are suggesting a 3% mortality rate now, and massive propagation rates and embarrassingly poor treatment / survival rates even in a first world country early on in the pandemic cycle.

> Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.

I'd invert your usage of the precautionary principle and ask, given what we know so far, why the default response isn't to shut down non-essential travel and public events for a couple of weeks.

I mean, what's your acceptable ratio of dead people : inconvenienced live people?

most people outside of the previous red zone is uncaring about the new emergency restrictions

step 1 should have been to bring military in the streets to enforce the thing, because police is both decimated by the virus and overwhelmed from the new responsibilities and cannot handle what's happening

perhaps there is no need to go to extremes.

Where I live I already have to provide my babysitter a signed letter where I certify that she comes to work here. She's from a different township (comune) and the police could fine her if caught without that document.

It's not going to stop 100% of people from moving around, but even it this reduces the spread by a few % it's already a big improvement; even reducing the daily rate from 21% to 20% can have a 20x effect on total cases over a year.

lol I'm not advocating treating it as a war zone, just calling in the military to do police work

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-cor...

so I guess I was right since the beginning

The response here in Australia has been so pathetic. Especially from the private sector.

They are undertaken so that the health service is not overwhelmed with cases. When that happens (as in Italy), you need to triage infected and let some number of people die, who otherwise would not have died. So it is best avoided.

They're lifted after most of the population has already been infected and the disease has run its course (as in China).

Presumably as soon as the number of patients requiring ICU goes above the number of available ICU beds then those kind of measures must be taken - even though its clearly a pretty terrible choice for someone to have to make.

And at that point it's too late.

Until we have a vaccine or at least better treatment options.

Something we can all do as individuals is stop going out to unnecessary things. I'm avoiding restaurants, bars, gyms and large groups.

ah, the joys of being deeply introverted. avoiding restaurants, bars, gyms, and large groups -- why, that's my ideal day.

Not great when you know it's not a choice, introverted or not.

I think in the us something as simple as paid sick leave for all service workers could make a huge difference.

In the past 5 days, some organizations who can afford it have shut down offices and are providing just that. I'm not at liberty to expose info on who, because I'm not sure it's been made public or not.

I also work for one such organization.

Are any those organisations like Walmart or McDonalds that employ a lot of people who often don’t have any savings and any margins at all?

Definitely not. When common franchise chains close, and people can't work, nor shop, is when it will be too late, and dire.

Maybe not necessary to close the whole shop, just make the workers with symptoms afford to stay away.

So, assuming you won't name the org you are working at, what prevents you from naming some of the others?

It might not be. Lower population density and a lack of public transportation. I would worry about NYC though.

Lots of workers who can't stay home when they're sick without losing their job though.

When? I keep hearing that, but where is the evidence?

no tests, no evidence

I think worse.

But i askari think it will go exactly like the Spanish flu. We will have a second wave which will also kill the younger.

Why would you think that? By the way, the Spanish was harsh on younger generations in all cases.

Nope, the first wave of the flu only killed older people and people with a low immune system. Just like the corona virus. The Spanish flu hit in three waves. The first like this one. The second wave hit the younger. The third wave hit the rest.

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