China shut down it's entire industry for two months. Knowing full well the risk of losing global business permanently. Perhaps it is time for drastic measures.
See how China scientifically tracked spreading: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22528245
> China shut down it's entire industry for two months
and kept everybody at home (and if you violate those restrictions, go to jail), and had masks for everybody... It's safer to be in China than EU now.
I think we need to acknowledge that the worst-cast predictions are laughably inaccurate, and a little bit of fear of the unknown is not worth losing our civil rights over.
Now do you honestly think China would shut down it's entire economy for 2 months over the flu? Have you actually read any published literature on the virus, or are you just watching people around you prepare and laughing at them? 8% of the Iranian parliament was infected last week - two were dead by Friday.
Because this is all unfolding slowly, we still don't even know if any of the following speculation is true:
1. Multiple Chinese sources report reinfection after recover
2. Multiple sources report positive tests after recovery
3. Hot weather may not stop the virus (see Singapore)
This is not SARS. This is not just another flu outbreak. Global markets are crashing because they see what's happened in 6+ countries now. It's time to get your head out of the sand.
Do you know that fucking Mecca is deserted right now? I don't think that's ever happened before.
The markets crashing is overdue IMO; things have been overheated for a long time now and a correction has been expected for awhile. It had may as well come as a result of herd behavior rather than market fundamentals, and I say let it ride. Like the old adage goes: be greedy when people are fearful, and fearful when people are greedy.
Also, the Hajj isn't until July this year; it's not surprising that Mecca is not crowded, and closing it for most business at this point in time is not beyond the pale in a global sense.
Coronavirus has begun exponential growth in the rest of the world. The rest of the world already has more cases than China did when exponential growth inflected.
As of today, it's not showing any signs of inflection. On February 26th, Trump said we had 15 cases in the US, and would be close to zero within a few days. 11 days later, we have 607 cases, 22 deaths, and 8 recoveries. That's a growth rate of 40% per day, and holding steady.
The scary number isn't 607. And it isn't even 22. Nor is it 22/607 or 22/(8+22). (which, tbh, is pretty scary)
The scary number is 40%.
Sure, it's "just" old people with a high probability of dying. But I have several elderly relatives. I'm not enthusiastic about losing any of them.