Hacker News Reader

Comment by _8j50 | Hacker News Reader

Doesn't matter if it is contained. If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full global spread) that's enough. There are bigger pandemics people have adopted to (AIDS,flu,etc...) a vaccine would help too.

The market fears are not a result of being afraid people will die. It's mostly around consumer spending,containment/quarantine efforts and supply chain stability.

This by itself is a very recoverable crisis, you don't need bailouts and mergers like in 2008. Nothing has collapsed (yet), which means everyone is trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen. The only big fear is how politicians might throw gas into the fire for certain political ends.

View on HN

Not sure why this is being downvoted. This is generally correct:

> The market fears are not a result of being afraid people will die. It's mostly around consumer spending,containment/quarantine efforts and supply chain stability.

It's a nasty virus, but this isn't the Spanish Flu devastating the post-WW1 landscape. It is absolutely going to screw up productions schedules and messing with the supply chain. Turns out if millions of people have to miss work the economy suffers, go figure.

Probably because of the last bit about politics, that was just me expressing a paranoia but to many their politics is like a religion to them and they assume I meant their side in my comment (I just meant politicians in general,plenty act in bad faith)

> If people accept it as normal (i.e.: full global spread) that's enough

I agree, but what if they don't?

It's quite easy to just stop doing stuff, order everything on Amazon, and binge on TV and video games.

It's arguably even rational to do it. Socializing is somewhat of a risk right now, and I'm pretty comfortable at home.

The CDC said today that Americans should avoid taking long flights. The administration is downplaying the risk to Americans.

> which means everyone is trying to "buy low" as soon as any sign of long term recovery is seen

The market was given a chance to do that last week when the fed cut rates. The fact that futures are limit down tonight suggests that this selling may go deep.

I would love to "buy low", but the bottom may not happen until prices are back to 2008 levels.

Also 10Y is now down below 0.35. I'm not sure where the cracks in the system are, but this is a global stress test of the economy.

Your fears are justified but what I am saying is containment won't be very effective. The worst case is if it lingers on barely spreading like it is now. Once you see 100k+ infections per state and every major city with similar numbers things will hopefully normalize.if this timing is close to when Russia and KSA straighten out their dispute I would say that is a good time to start buying slowly.

It really depends on the unknown factors. Things will normalize because people gotta eat, the big unknown here is when. Will everyone start missing mortgage payments and credit card bills because quarantines (unlikely)? Will supply chain issues cause big losses (very likely)? But you can make up for losses,like you said even with quarantine people still order online. We're seeing losses but no cascadig long term collapse like detroit,aig,lehman brothers in '08. But the worsr case can still play out and collapses can start cascading if the corona fears and oil dispute last more than a few weeks

Reply on news.ycombinator.com