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Comment by melling | Hacker News Reader

China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

China is in a different phase where it seems they have surpressed it rather than contained it. which means if they loosen up the lock down it could revert. It’s also an economic disaster that are trying contain from all the lock down.

I don't understand the difference between surpressed and contained?

Yeah, if they stop containing it, it will start spreading again...

Suppressed means there is continued transmission, contained means that’s stopped. Rabies is suppressed with a continuing threat from wild animal populations. The recent Ebola virus outbreak on the other hand is an example of containment in action, with zero active cases at this point.

The only long term success for suppression is from a vaccine. Contained on the other hand means every infected person can gain immunity and the virus would then run out of new hosts.

Well if they manage to keep it suppressed they can keep the health care system from collapsing at least.

China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.

Why? We're a bunch of paranoid lunatics, primed to avoid each other.

Just a small sampling but most of my neighbors are retired and they think it's a MSM scare tactic to drum up views. Some say it's no worse than the flu and then you have the Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax.

In CA btw.

> Trump supporters saying it's all a Democrat hoax

Hard to know exactly what you are referring to here but it sounds like you are spreading more misinformation. We all need to get better at communicating. I swear that half of public discussion these days is based on fictional situations and not reality.

    1) Democrats accused Trump of mishandling COVID-19.
    2) Trump labeled the *criticism* as another "hoax" about his presidency/competency.
    3) Democrats react to 2) and accuse Trump of labeling COVID-19 a "hoax".
    4) Bipartisan collection of journalist pointed out that 3) is bogus and 2) is what was said.
    5) hurrdurr2's comment appears to be a variation of 3) relative to 2).
    6) this comment is an attempt to point out this history and correct the record similar to 4)

I'm taking no stance here on 1) as it really depends what specific criticism is being evaluated. Some of it was/is reasonable and some of it was/is ill-founded.

I have no idea what exactly motivated all the bullshit associated with 3) but it was some combination or poor reading comprehension, slopping rumor mongering, or disgusting politicization of a major public health crisis.

WRT 1) I think the fact the CDC hasn't had enough testing capability–as well as far too strict requirements surrounding the tests, perhaps because of their inadequate capabilities—is enough of a black mark.

Sure but 3) is just bullshit that just confuses everything for no valid reason. It is distracting dangerous noise that increases the anxiety of the public for no good reason.

3) will do a lot less harm than botching the response in the long run. AFAIAC none of that politicking matters.

So what? Why are you trying to assess the relative harm of a fabrication with anything at all? 3) is just nonsense that distracts from real discussion and yet there are people here defending it. I just don't understand.

What I'm saying is don't bother with it; it will die on its own. You're the one bringing that discussion to life here; I only intended to comment on the CDC's response, I didn't intend to involve whatever the "Democrats" said. (Scare quotes because you can't coalesce them as one being)

I'm just repeating what I was told when I chatted with some neighbors. Some are Trump supporters and they said it's a hoax. Anecdotal so take it as you will. Not sure why my comment warranted such a longwinded defensive reply.

Because it sounded like you were talking about 3) which I find supper annoying. I tried to caveat my comments in case you weren't talking about 3).

It could have been cognitive dissonance. Certain segments of the population couldn't possibly be dismissing this virus as no worse than the flu, could they?

https://www.scottadamssays.com/2020/03/05/episode-840-scott-...

"Nobody under 70 has died, and over 700 people infected on that ship. So that's impressive."

That's just from randomly seeking through one of his recordings.

You'd be surprised how many people I have talked to who told me they are not worried at all because it's just like the flu.

Yeah, China, Korea, and Italy quarantined millions over just the flu. Some people's ability to deny reality is very impressive.

(3) is kind of a strawman. No one actually thinks Donald Trump said the virus itself is a hoax. In context the "hoax" is referring to the claims about the seriousness of the virus and the government response to it.

And there are definitely Trump supporters calling the situation a hoax, as in, "this is a hoax to blow up the stock market and make Trump look bad, don't you know that more people die of the flu every year?".

False. We’re a bunch of mostly self centered individualist who don’t like being told what to do and don’t trust facts, ideas, opinions, or people that contradict our preconceived notions.

What exactly do you think "paranoid" and "lunatic" mean?

Problem is: when what authorities tell you is to distance yourself for others, a paranoid lunatic will obviously smell a conspiracy and do the exact opposite.

"doesn't behave in a fashion maxerickson approves of"

Word. If I didn't dislike people we could be friends.

The US is blessed with low population density, and people don't share meals family style.

We don't have to copy everything China does, just do what has proven to work:

Fast testing and contact tracing.

Shame they're failing miserably on both of those fronts.

https://twitter.com/drdenagrayson/status/1235703439688175618

> Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.

But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.

The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted

If the curve has flatlined in China and only 20,283 remain, China should not have a further problem with resources.

The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.

What happens when infected soul from US / other place visits china ?

Is there an immunity built up in infected people or does the clock reset ?

You cant quarantine the world and expect a global economy to survive

Gotta love the people that see people dying and are most concerned about the economy.

I am not worried about the economy as in I need to get rich ( Im not close) but realistically if no one is making money the impact of folks being out of work and unable to buy food starts to weigh in.

The simple fact most countries are interdependent ( see : Toilet paper) is a real issue.

How do you think people get food, shelter, medicine, and other necessities?

The rich can wait out a downturn. It is the poor who will struggle.

Stopping the world economy will kill many millions more people than COVID-19 could dream of

What does stopping the world economy entail?

In the context of this post: the kind of quarantine where nobody is allowed to venture far from their homes.

Where goods can't travel from where they are made to where they could be sold, or worse can't be made because nobody is allowed to leave home to go make them.

Where we isolate each country from the others, each state/province/region, each everywhere.

Where commerce is effectively ended due to the inability of people to participate in it.

It's been 2 days, and already the food markets are running out.

With no resupply available for weeks at a minimum, people are.going to get mighty hungry.

Funny how quickly the HN crowd cheers for these incredible restrictions on life and freedom, and yet pretend not to favor totalitarianism

If if the curve flattens for the World early, then obviously the medical resources won't be exhausted.

I don't know how long the exponential growth might continue.

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