Ask HN: How bad do you think the Covid-19 pandemic will get?

At present, the most likely situation is that as the temperature rises and summer is approaching, the virus's ability to spread begins to decline. At the same time, the strengthening of people's isolation measures makes the spread of the virus continuously decrease. Then, whether the infected person has cured or died, the virus is slowly disappearing from the human community. However, the premise of all this is: (1)the government attaches sufficient importance and has the ability to segregate his people and persist until the summer comes. (2)The virus does not mutate.

What we've already seen to date in affected areas is that the medical system gets slammed, and any non-emergency medical care goes out the window. Elective surgeries, or any surgery that can be put off at all will be put off. So, death rate of other things goes up.

People with co-morbidities will die at higher rates. Diabetes, heart disease, etc each add 5% or so. Up to 30% death rate for 60 years plus age range.

On the political side, more of what we're already seeing with a lot of finger pointing and yelling, and not enough adults in the room willing to put aside differences and work together.