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With the CDC director saying that this thing is going to be a regular seasonal visitor[1], it makes me wonder what long-term impact this is going to have on society.

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert...

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I don't think regular seasonal visitor has been called yet. In that article the CDC director is simply stating the one-off amount of time he expects the virus to be around for, not that it will recur every season.

The article doesn't have the full quote from the video. After mentioning community-based transmission, he goes on to say that "You can start to think of it like seasonal flu," which does suggest recurrence.

You're right, apologies. Incredible that the article left that quote out.

Is there any reason to believe we wouldn't have a vaccine in the next 12-18 months? Multiple vaccine candidates are already entering clinical trials. [0]

If there's a vaccine and a large sample of cases studies on treatment with antivirals, I'd assume its fatality rate would fall down to regular flu levels or somewhere near that. Therefore the spread wouldn't be treated like a pandemic as it is now.

0: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/moderna-s...

According to [1] the likelihood of approval for a drug entering Phase 1 trials is about 12%. So that's one reason to not be too excited. Another reason is that coronaviruses are one of the causes of the common cold (rhinoviruses another one). People have been looking for a cure for the common cold for hundreds of years. It's been challenging. It's possible that the efforts were not that focused as the common cold is not very deadly. Now that Covid19 appears to be more deadly, maybe the efforts will redouble. But maybe there are some fundamental reasons it's difficult to come up with a cure/vaccine for coronaviruses (like they mutate too quickly). I personally don't take for granted that there will be a vaccine in the next few years.

[1] https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/C...

Even with a vaccine, if it spreads enough and the mutation rate is high enough, new strains of the virus (that the vaccination doesn't protect against) will spread every season.

A working vaccine isn't guaranteed. Reminder that we haven't perfected the flu vaccine, it only applies to a few strains each year, and some years it misses more than hits

It will probably stay around for a long time, now that it spread through the whole world. But, and that is why currently every step taken to slow down its spread is so important, it will be less of a problem. Beyond a possible vaccine and a cure, there will be more and more people with immunity or partial immunity against it, as with every wave, there are more people around who have successfully fought the virus. With each seasons iteration, the society is less vulnerable against the virus. Especially, if we remember some good practices against viral infections, which would be of benefit against all common infections, ranging from the cold to the flu, which kills far to many people every year. Many of those deaths could be prevented.

Not that high. After all it kills best old people with comorbidities. So it competes with the flu and heart attacks.

While a lot of people will die from corona complications I don't expect total mortality to increase that much. You can die only once ..

That entirely depends on whether society decides to have the current panic wave every year, or deals with it in a more reasonable manner. Hopefully after people see how much they overreacted this time, they won't be inclined to next season.

Once a vaccine is created, couldn't the people the most at danger get vaccinated and everyone else too, created herd immunity?

I'd actually be curious. Is it the type of thing where a vaccine ends it? Or will it be like the flu where it's always mutating and so the vaccine helps but it's still always out there in some form.

Not an expert, but creating a perennial vaccine depends on the mutation rate and which highly-conserved regions can be targeted.

One of the potential vaccines enrolling trial patients is made of mRNA that codes for the spike protein needed for entry to cells. [0] If that spike protein turns out to be highly-conserved, then the vaccine will have sticking power. If it's not, but there turn out to be evolutionary trade-offs to adapting around it, it could push the virus to become less aggressive.

0. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

Isn't it only if an effective vaccine is created?

For instance, what if it becomes like the flu? Vaccine exists, but flu still does the rounds.

Additionally, with some reinfections happening, what does that mean? Why didn't the people who had covid-19 a first time have immunity?

It is expected to be more stable than influenza. So regional eradication is conceivable in the long term and it's likely to eventually become one of those diseases that is limited to poorer/harder to reach parts of the world. But that is certainly years away. For now we all have zero immunity.

The relapses are a bit of a mystery but it's not uncommon with viruses e.g. various herpes viruses.

The problem with flu isn't tha the vaccine itself isn't effective, it actually protects you from the strains it's designed to just fine, it's just that the influenza virus is unstable and mutates, leading to new versions that you no longer are protected against. So yes, it depends on how stable COVID-19 is as mentioned below.

Aware of this. It does depend on that, and so will the effectiveness of any vaccine.

It remains to be seen if it's an overreaction.

There is not enough data to say it isn't.

You're right. I would stake a large amount of money on it, though, if there were a good way to.

Given the reaction of equity markets that seems like one option for you to "put your money where your mouth is" so to speak.

The problem is determining for how long people will continue to overreact.

We're still at the point where a single confirmed case in a country that didn't have any before is international news and triggers more panic, as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders. You could easily have a long tail of these that can easily be spun into news about the continuing spread of the virus.

If you really believe what you're saying, don't worry about timing the bottom. You're arguing that the current state of the markets is already a huge overreaction. Just buy into an index tracking one of the hard-hit sectors, and hold through the panic. If this is an overreaction, there's no way the panic's going to last many years, so you won't risk insolvency.

Well said, thanks for the perspective.

> as if the virus somehow cared about political constructs like country borders

The virus may not care, but it doesn't fly planes, control customs, coordinate response or a bunch of other things. Borders and other political constructs have large effects on contagion.

I haven't looked recently, but when the first wave of travel restrictions was being implemented, WHO, CDC and other public health authorities were saying that travel restrictions were unnecessary and ineffective.

Which remains true. The only thing that would work is forced quarantine for all travelers for the hole incubation time so you could be absolutely certain they're not carrying that virus before letting them back into society.

That wasn't going to happen, and anything else doesn't stop the virus from entering in some way.

And even this could potentially be unsafe as the virus could potentially mutate.

Honestly, anything but herd immunity with vaccine isn't going to cut it with an easily spread virus such as this. (Still not a guarantee, just highly likely to work)

Buy a bunch of $SPY puts.

Wrong side of the trade, buying puts is like buying insurance; it's a bet that the price will go down further, while OP wants to bet that an overreaction has happened. You'd have to write puts (thereby earning the premium) or buy calls to bet in the other direction.

(Incidentally, it's not just about direction. Option bets require you to be also right about magnitude and timing.)

You could even sell puts or put spreads to pay for the calls. The volatility lately makes the timing and magnitude a lot less crucial for option trades.

The travel sector has been hit the hardest, so you should buy into ETF's like XTN that track the consumer travel industry.

There are good ways to do so. 4/17 2650 SPX puts are trading for around $6,000 in premium, 4/17 265 SPY puts are around $600 each if you want a more manageable sized contract.

Check out the option chains to shop around for different strikes and expirations to find options that suit your risk tolerance and time horizon.

The 4/17 2650 SPX puts are now worth about $26,500, up from $6,000 10 days ago. Did you put your money where your mouth was? I hope so!

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