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Comment by simonh | Hacker News Reader

This will be based on models using what we currently know about the time it takes patients to show symptoms, the number of people currently detected showing symptoms, and the expected rate of detection of symptomatic patients.

'Numerous' is a bit of a loaded term, there have been cases of community spread in three areas so far, as described in the CDC summary.

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> The coronavirus has been circulating undetected and has possibly infected scores of people over the past six weeks in Washington state, according to a genetic analysis of virus samples that has sobering implications for the entire country amid heightening anxiety about the likely spread of the disease.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-s...

Yes, correct, scores of people in the areas the CDC report there being cases, and in which they say people are at increased risk. That's not 'widely in the united States'.

They also say that widespread transmission is eventually likely to occur. They are simply, and as far as I can tell very clearly and responsibly, drawing a distinction between what is happening now and what is likely to occur in the future.

As there has been community transmission and aren't actively testing symptomatic people (unless in known direct contact with someone who has traveled to an affected area, or traveled there themselves), it's questionable if they have a sufficient grasp on "what is happening now".

>and aren't actively testing symptomatic people

The article even has pictures of the test kits they've been distributing.

There's a model floating around out there now [0]. I think the main point of it is the transmission efficacy. The Gates article recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine states the average person infected will go on to infect two to three additional [1].

I'm of the opinion that, while China appears to be the root cause, the advantage they have is a very authoritarian control on the response. People were literally welded into their apartments [2]. In the US, for example, there are many people that will blindly ignore all requests by politicians, local, state and national government. Many Chinese don't have that option for fear of strong repercussions. While I'm not condoning that use of force - I'm just stating as an observation. Beyond that the US seems to be in an odd spot given the upcoming election and divisive divide along party lines.

[0] https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bS6S4oNRuMHD4ezh177QSf3UU6a...

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

[2] https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

The question about China's draconian response is, was it an overreaction? They are doing a lot of damage to themselves by welding people in to their apartments and shutting everything down. Maybe it will turn out that the Korean approach of testing, canceling events, and you know, not putting people in camps, will end up with less overall damage.

“Widely” is sort of a vague word.

It might be only in a few states but Florida, California, Washington, and New York could have a lot.

It is suspected that in Washington the virus has been spreading undetected for 6 weeks.

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