Imagine going home to your family without knowing if you've been exposed to a disease that has a ~2% mortality rate.
...and then the company asks everyone to come back into work the next day.
Google's response here is shocking.
Imagine going home to your family without knowing if you've been exposed to a disease that has a ~2% mortality rate.
...and then the company asks everyone to come back into work the next day.
Google's response here is shocking.
It's a lack of leadership which shouldn't be surprising given that most corporate executives don't really know how to act in situations outside of their realm of experience.
The top-down restrictions of who is allowed to get tested have been quite limited, so there's easily tons of people infected who we don't know about, many of them asymptomatic - yet who could still be transferring the virus to vulnerable/less healthy people [1].
Access to testing kits is going to be another constraint going forward if this thing continues spreading and testing criteria does indeed expand (which no doubt are probably correlated).
I have a feeling once the CDC and WHO expand the criteria for who gets tested there is going to be a significant spike in the number of people who we know have it. There's going to be a lot of post-de facto reviews and lessons learned from this experience in the coming future, no doubt.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-asympt...
Most can't even do that. Their paper experience is with tech and product, but the experience they actually got hired for is political maneuvering.
I was working at a high rise in Manhattan on 9/11, as a fresh new analyst. After the horrific incidents of the day, we were told to continue working. That continued for about 90 minutes until the company announced an evacuation.
Next we were told to carry all our binders (full of analyst reports) home, so a group of us Brooklyn residents did the 7mile trek with backpacks full of binders plus a 2001-era laptop, one of us had a roller bag because there were so many binders.
Also remember this is 2001. We did not have VPN in our project office, though I know it existed. We had a modem dial in for remote access and none of our work was on network drives. HOme DSL/CableModem had only recently become popular amongst professionals.
Regardless, I continue to remember the burden of carrying those gigantic binders as I ran across the 59th street bridge and through Queens and Brooklyn...all while wearing wingtip shoes. Awful.
What do you think the correct response by management should have been? 15 minutes after the 1st plane hit, everyone shut down, go home, leave the files and binders?
No, when people’s lives are on the line and a building might be brought down due to an airplane crashing into you, you should not even think about binders or paperwork, much less making others think about binders.
I am here to understand the thinking of people who thought management should have "done better".
It could well be that this is correct, but it was a very confusing morning, if you will recall, and nobody knew what the hell was going on.
One stupid example is that my friends at Bear Stearns in WTC-7, left the building (evacuated) when the stock markets in NY shut down, and all lived. But the other friends on the bond-desk (traded out of Chicago, which didn't shut down), stayed and all died. (Hard to get a bond trader off his desk!).
It was a horrible day. And also unprecedented. I think it is a little unfrair for people to expect managers to know how to react (immediately and pro-actively!) to an unprecedented event. If I had an argument, it would be that: If I were a manager on that day, I would have been confused. And so would you.
Gosh! That's a lot!
If an airplane hits the world trade center, would I push the fat man in front of the train? (Sorry - moral philosophy question)... Ummmm. I don't know! Would you? WOuld I? How long would I brain freeze? Would I ask people to stay? Go home? Take books? The vault? I don't know! What would you do?
My point here is simply this: You don't know what you were do, in real time, until you are in the hot-chair. You don't! Nobody does. And you will get it wrong. And anything you decide (anything!) will be criticized for decades. By people who were not there.
This page has a massive amount of information about evacuation problems, including a false assertion made over the intercom that the building was safe, and that people needed to turn around because doors were locked, but nothing about "go back to work" except baseless speculation by a sibling of a victim.
It doesn't even make sense, why would management of a building with dozens or hundreds of tenants care who is working?
What makes you think Google employees only care about themselves? You don't think they (and we) should care about the more vulnerable members of society that they will infect?
"Not at risk" does not mean 0 risk, it means negligible risk.
For example, if I was standing on a cruise ship, am I at risk for drowning? Not really, it's extremely unlikely that I would drown. Could I drown? For sure, I could fall in the ocean, or in the pool, or pass out into a bowl of soup. Despite the nonzero possibility of drowning, if someone saw me on the cruise ship waiting in line for the buffet and yelled "be careful, you are at risk of drowning" at me, I would think they had lost their mind.
But even though the risk of infection is low, I wouldn't say that a child is "not at risk" of contracting the disease if their dad catches it at work and brings it home.
I'd say that he's "at low risk", not "no risk".
Planes crash, the Airbus A380 has suffered 0 crashes, so would you interpret this to mean the A380 cannot crash?
Lets square up the analogy. So there are 0 deaths for children that get coronavirus, and about 1/5 of the cases have been among children.
Planes crash, and out of all the planes that have crashed about 1/5 of the passengers were children, if 0 of the children died would you interpret this to mean children can't die in plane crashes?
And yes, basically I would interpret it that way if it were true.
Ok, maybe I can make it closer to your analogy:
There were 0 deaths for children that get caronavirus, maybe you think children are much less likely than adults to die if infected? Planes crash, if the A380 has never crashed despite millions and millions of miles in service, would you interpret that to mean that an A380 is much less likely to crash than other plane models that have flown a similar number of miles and had a bunch of crashes?
Again, yes, that is just how statistics work.
/s (in case it isn't obvious)
This story of the "only old people" is just to keep the majority of the population calm, which is good. However, it can happen to any of us to be in a bad period and this sh happens.
So do everything you can to avoid it in the first place -- ideally I'll avoid it until a vaccine is developed. (fingers crossed that a vaccine really will be developed)
"THREAD/1: We saw now several reports of reinfection and I wanted to talk a little about that. While immunity induced by SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and human CoVs is not very long lived, an immune response is typically induced and antibodies persist for 1-3 years."
"2) Now, there is evidence that people with COVID19 mount an immune response (e.g. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025841v1). That makes re-infection, especially short-term extremely unlikely. What is more likely is, that the patient is still shedding virus but some of the tests were negative."
"3) Follow up tests can turn positive after a few negative tests, e.g. because sampling was better. Also, and this is a very important point, just because somebody still tests positive in a nucleic acid based test, does not mean they are still shedding infectious virus."
"4) E.g. Measles RNA can be detected for months in patients, long after infectious virus shedding has stopped. This is also the case for other viruses. And I think this is the most likely scenario here."
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/12333387467890360...
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
You can debate whether or not it's really a reinfection or not, but no one is going to really know for sure until quite some time and further studies can be done.
So for now, I wouldn't count on immunity after catching the disease.
I'd personally watch any publication from Singapore in this regard - one of their primary learnings from SARS was to become a biotech hub which enabled them to rapidly scale testing in this case and you can assume they have very good surveillance of existing cases.
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19
They share details on all cases, along with the result of the investigation around whom they have been in contact with and where they have been.
They also created a dashboard with all information: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7e30edc490a5441a874...
The 2% figure comes directly from dividing deaths by identified cases. Because it takes a while to kill and new cases are growing exponentially this figure is very likely an underestimate. (not certainly an underestimate because non-severe cases are less likely to get counted)
Instead, you can gauge mortality by looking at deaths/(deaths+recoveries). With this method you get a number around 7%. This can produce an overestimate, either because recovery takes a long time or because non-severe cases don't get counted.
This question was also asked about SARS and it turns out that for SARS deaths/cases was a massive underestimate until the rate of the rate of new infections decreased. For SARS d/(d+r) was a much more accurate estimation at all times.
https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/
2% and 7% are both pretty bad, but they have distinctive public policy implications. I hope we're not making bad decisions simply because people handle exponential processes poorly.
Has anyone seen death and recovery by age? I think it would be interesting to estimate mortality by age using the d/(d+r) method, and perhaps contemplate what effect that might have on the composition of the US senate. :-/
This calculates Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) which seems like how you're saying not to, but does split by age.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
If you have a mild cough or a bit of a cold, you might not think anything of it beyond staying home from work, but that could be COVID-19 (and we might _never_ know that it was).
If you look at the Diamond Princess, where seemingly everybody was exposed to the virus, the actual death rate was about 0.4%, which is within error bars of the flu.
Given how it can take weeks to die after being infected, I doubt they will be the last deaths.
There was a recent (Feb 17) study here with mortality crosstabs (see ‘results’): http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
Case fatality rate (N_deaths/N_confirmed_cases):
[0-9]: NA
[10-39]: 0.2%
[40-49]: 0.4%
[50-59]: 1.3%
[60-69]: 3.6%
[70-79]: 8.0%
[>=80]: 14.8%
Case fatality by date of onset:
[<Dec 31] 14.4% (n=105)
[Jan 1-10] 15.6% (n=653)
[Jan 11-20] 5.7% (n=5417)
[Jan 21-31] 1.9% (n=26468)
[>Feb 1] 0.8% (n=12030)
That does make the overall fatality rate look quite a bit worse than the naive calculation.
I don't think this is true, considering China has built new hospitals just for patients who are tested positive but have light symptoms [0].
China also sent 12500 testing kits to Japan [1].
[0]: https://www.zhihu.com/question/369522812
[1]: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200226/p2a/00m/0na/00...
Disclaimer: I'm from China.
Both 2% and 7% will end up being massively overstated fear-mongering in a “pandemic” that never really actually qualified as such, and will kill less than 1/100th the number of people who die from Flu this year.
But everyone loves a good disaster story.
I’d say though you’re fear mongering posting a comment like this, why ? Maybe you don’t realise ?
If you're just stating that without posing a counter argument then I think you have failed to understand what I am saying. And that is precisely why I posted.
1. The methodology being used to arrive at the 2-3% figure is unambiguously vulnerable to bias. It may be the case that other biases (under-reporting mild cases) cancels out the effect, or maybe not.
2. The same methodology when applied to SARS was provably biased, and an alternative seemingly equally valid estimator was accurate for SARS and gives a much higher estimate for the mortality rate of coronavirus.
If, in fact, we are off by mortality estimates by a factor of 4 it needs to be more widely known because the appropriate economic trade-off in handling is different at the two mortality levels. (In particular, if the mortality rate is much higher for working age people then economically disruptive countermeasures are more justified.)
I'm doubtful that any comments on hacker news are likely to result in public panic. I think for the most part the audience here is capable of reasoning about these things and making prudent decisions.
Ok it’s fine to speculate, but you’re throwing up some big figures in what’s already a panicked situation and pretty much everything you’re saying is based purely on speculation and anecdotal evidence.
I just find it odd health organisations have already done studies, published numbers yet people all cover the internet (on HN of all places) seem to feel like they want to exaggerate the issue, refute the science and don’t trust the existing numbers. Why ?
I spoken with a professional epidemiologist and they also agreed.
If CDC were saying that they considered this case and concluded that d/c is a more reliable estimator, I'd be happy to hear it. Instead, it appears d/c -- which is a good estimator for viruses in steady state-- is being used because it's just the default and the only research I can find which has actually evaluated this question found that d/c underestimates in a rapidly spreading infection.
Admittedly the scenario I'm proposing seems unlikely. Seems they would have at least mentioned it if they were going to tell the folks who might have had contact with the individual. However. I'm leery of jumping to conclusions.
The office is huge and travel to north Italy is extremely common.
People need to be told what to do, otherwise they don't think they are harming others. This behavior is even more common among young people without family. The moment you have a child, you start to look at all these potential threats and react accordingly.
"OK."
Also, sometimes it's just reading the f news. It's a global thing, everybody want it or not knows about this virus.
While northern Italy has highest concentration of cases outside Asia, the likelihood that any individual passenger is infected is very low and the likelihood that /one of them/ is infected, and had already traveled on, is very high.
Are you subscribed to all of Google's internal communications?
It's serious, even for younger people, and that's if health care infrastructure doesn't get overwhelmed.