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Comment by nostromo | Hacker News Reader

Panic is unwarranted.

On the cruise ship, which is known for being full of old people, there were 3 deaths out of ~750 known cases. Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old. Reports now say that many people testing positive have no symptoms at all and aren't getting sick. There have been zero deaths of children so far, which is unlike the flu. The youngest death was in his mid 30s.

Everyone should chill. Visit with your parents or compromised friends on FaceTime for a few weeks. Wash your hands. Don't go to work sick. If you're pregnant take extra precautions. Otherwise live your normal life.

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>3 deaths out of ~750 known cases

Actually it's 6 out of 705. [0][1] May seem like a small difference, but a 0.8% chance of dying is 8x more than the flu.

Never mind the fact that the data out of China, Italy, Japan and Iran is all trending around the 2-3% CFR calculated and published in multiple peer reviewed journals. [2][3]

(However, South Korea might be reason for hope.)

>or been very old

It bothers me immensely when people mention it's "just old people". I'm not sure why I should "chill" about my parents having an 8% chance of dying if they contract this. [3]

[0] https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

[3] http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

>Actually it's 6 out of 705. [0][1] May seem like a small difference, but a 0.8% chance of dying is 8x more than the flu.

There's a good chance being confined to a cabin in a cruise ship and acquiring COVID-19 is more detrimental to someone than if they had a community acquired infection going about their normal life.

Being restricted like that implies they're getting significantly less exercise than they would normally, and the stress combined with lack of sun can do a number on someone's sleep cycle. That in turn can influence cognition, especially in the elderly, and I imagine increases the chances of being dehydrated/etc...

It's like being in a hospital, which tends to do a number on most people, but without supportive around the clock care.

> Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old

I agree with not fomenting panic. However, "had another medical issue" means diabetes, which alone covers 11% of the US population, and has so far been associated with a mortality rate of about 8%. This likely includes at least one family member in more or less every US family.

It's entirely reasonable to view that as a compelling reason to avoid things like major conferences with significant inter- and trans-national mass transit.

Would be interesting to know how the level of your treatment to diabetes affects your chances to die. I'm type 1, A1c under 6% and I do constant exercise. Is it worse with bad control, I haven't found an answer yet.

My understanding is that high blood sugar impedes the immune system. So, the better your blood sugar is controlled, the better off you will be.

That's what I understood also. I've spent tremendous amount of time understanding my diabetes, and your comment here validated my assumption in the case of CoV.

It's still quite scary to see how diabetics have a very high risk with the virus. Luckily the treatment I get with my closed loop gives me an easy access to excellent control.

Cruise ship analysis is naive.

People from the cruise ship are still in the process of dieing. 2 more deaths occured today.

The number of recovered cases from the cruise ship is low, so naive inference on death rate so far is misleading.

While it may not kill many quickly, you might be underestimating the long term effects of permanent lung damage. [0]

[0]https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-w...

So... if we’re not in the high mortality demographic we should just engage in activities that could be a catalyst for pandemic and significant loss of life? Not sure I follow your thinking.

Quick fact check: first of all, 3 deaths out of 750 isn't relevant without knowing the timeline of transmission, as most deaths occur 3-4 weeks post infection.

Second, there have deaths of people in there 20's a casual google search of 'youngest death coronavirus' yields that information as the first result.

And if you believe every young death (or every death) in Hubei province is being publicized, you haven't been paying attention.

I do agree that it's important not to panic, but we absolutely should be taking social distancing measures to reduce the r0.

This is dead wrong. Please check your facts. 6 deaths. Many in bad shape. Most still sick. Honestly, people should be scared. Leadership is doing everything they can to prevent that.

I don’t think being scared should ever be a recommendation. Concerned, proactive, and calm are the way to go.

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