“40% Chance of Pandemic” – Is Moody's Coronavirus Risk Assessment Malpractice?

What is the definition of 'pandemic' used?

If we take the definition as being "an epidemic occurring worldwide" [1] then it is still arguable whether a coronavirus pandemic has started just yet since there is no reported cases of local transmission in Africa and in South America.

The definition of the term is crucial to discuss Moody's report, or just to have any discussion on the topic, and it seems a bit light that the article's author only brushes on it at the very end of the article, and uses a definition slightly different than the above ("global spread").

[1] https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-088815/en/

No one knows. It might be mildly irresponsible of Moody's to hazard a guess, but the author's contention that that guess is obviously wildly low is just silly.