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Facebook isn't going to provide "probabilityOfBreakUp" in their API, but you might be able to build a factor model from accessible information; for instance, number of photos in which a couple are both tagged might be a statistically significant factor.

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I think the most significant criteria is how many times one looks at their profile. Facebook has always been very adamant about technically disallowing this for apps.

...no doubt there will be multiple factors used to conclude this kind of information.

No, the most significant criteria will be how many times one looks at somebody else's profile. IMs and messages would also be quite significant. But that's even less likely to get released.

I bet they will provide you a private one if you've got enough venture capital behind you to cut the cheques... (I hear the Winklevoss twins are lawyering up again)

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