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I'd love to agree with you, but I keep being reminded that 'the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.'

Sure, I'm nearly certain this is going to give us 2-4 quarters of negative growth, worldwide, but I don't know when the market is actually going to price that in.

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Morgan Stanley already is betting on a return to positive growth sometime in late Q2. I won’t bet against them.

Finance illiterate question: how do you know what Morgan Stanley is betting on? I'd assume they don't divulge their trading bets.

Generally each bank has many fund managers and analysts that do a lot of public speaking about their bets, thoughts, and speculations. You'll see them on public news stations as guest commentators

Given what they say has an effect on how others trade, do you think that they may not be completely forthright unless it was in the best interest of their bet?

Morgan Stanley was betting that subprime mortgage CDOs were sound in 2006. How'd that work out for them?

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