Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

297 pointsSpellman539 comments

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My father had the misfortune of being a civilian in Kuwait during the first gulf war. What I learned from his stories is that the line between normalcy and utter chaos is thinner than one would think.

The war itself from the perspective of someone not actively participating is mostly boring (his words) - you can't really go outside, cable is down(no internet back then), not much is happening.

But the brief transition period between peace and war is the worst. People desperately trying to stock up in the last minutes, quickly realizing that it's pointless to stand in line and pay when there are so many more of them than the supermarket's staff.

I, for one, "prepared" by weighing 10kg more than a few years ago. I have body fat to spare. My only worry is a good source of water-soluble vitamins.

Fat is actually one of the last things the body burns during starvation. Your muscles usually go first.

Yep, and the process is hard on the kidneys.

Which one, muscle or fat burning?

Breakdown of muscle tissue releases proteins that are damaging to the kidneys. It's called rhabdomyolysis. Excessive exertion, infections and starvation can cause it.

Rhabdo is no joke people. Drink your water, pace yourself when working out, an don't let any heavy objects fall on you.

You do have a source? I d heard the opposite.

I'm pretty sure Fat goes first. You mostly loose fat when fasting. It's not till much much later that you loose muscle (BMI has to reach a really low level for that to happen)

Talk to any bodybuilder and they'll tell you that for every 4kg of fat you lose you'll also drop 1kg of muscle.

So yes it is mainly fat but some muscles will be lost at the same time, especially if you have a high muscle mass.

are we all bodybuilders here? I don’t think you can compare.

As a Marine who has gone through many, many building and leaning cycles, I call BS on this. When you drop that fat, you aren't actually losing muscular tissue (at least not much). I've gotten down to Olympian levels of body fat, 9-10%, and what you are losing besides the fat is water weight. Your muscles shrink because they hold in less blood; your body regulates this to keep blood pressure normalized with all the decrease in fatty tissues. At less that 8% (on average, for men at least), most bodies will start to break down and metabolize muscle tissues (started happening to me around 9%, and was NOT a fun experience).

Yeah, came here to say this (was in the Army). My experience is the same. When it started to happen you could actually smell it (smells like ammonia ... like cat urine, almost).

That’s ketosis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketosis

Took me weeks to figure out what the heck that smell was; mostly assumed we'd gotten a bad batch of MRE's

Did you continue to work out while cutting? Because that reduces the muscle lost. If you're an average joe and you're starving yourself, your muscle will reduce comparably to fat.

I continued to do physical activity. I think your muscles will "shrivel" if you don't use them; they won't be engorged with blood on a regular basis, thus will lose plasticity at a cellular level. Then when you do use them, they'll fill with less blood, and look smaller. It takes a lot to actually lose muscular tissue. Mostly people just lose muscular plasticity, and they appear smaller.

As long as I'm able to lift weights I lift weights. I've never cut significantly though, I'm happy with 15% body fat as a lower bounds - I look good, feel good and am strong at that weight.

Maybe I'll try to drop to 12% to see if I can do it sometime, but I'm a long way from that right now (our third kid is 5 months old so I'm back to being a fat-ass).

I've always been a fat-ass (somewhere from 15-25% BF) so I've also never experienced considerable loss of muscle tissue (at least as far as the scales tell me) - however the body-builder club are at 6% body fat when cut and at what, 12-15% when bulking? They are absolutely going to metabolize muscle tissue when cutting.

This makes no sense. Why would the body prefer to break down a functional store of energy when has access to a non-functional one?

Because the functional store requires energy to maintain? Getting rid of it reduces the daily caloric need.

Pure speculation

It depends on which variant of PPARG you have.

Pretty sure that’s exactly the purpose (evolutionarily speaking) of fat. It’s an intermittent store of energy to fill in the gaps between the sporadic meals we evolved eating.

It just makes so much sense that when food is plentiful (peak season) you want to be able to pack on the fat in order to get you through the cold season when food is scarce.

It also makes sense that we eat more heavy, carb-wise, in the winter and lighter foods in the summer, with spring and autumn being the transitional periods. Its to sustain our body fat, or move it into the direction of the next season. A lot of body in the summer makes it hotter (undesired; already hot), not much body fat in the winter makes it colder (undesired; already cold).

And it isn't only that. Squirrels even harvest so they got food in winter. We've also learned to maintain foods, such as sushi with rice, or with salt or acid so it wouldn't go rancid. Plus, like I said, there's "winter vegetables" which are high on carbs, low on water.

Not true.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starvation_response

> the body burns fat after first exhausting the contents of the digestive tract along with glycogen reserves stored in liver cells and after significant protein loss.[2] After prolonged periods of starvation, the body uses the proteins within muscle tissue as a fuel source.

i've read that your earlobes are the first to go

I'm not.

There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level.

Now governments and the medical field should be preparing for it. But most of that is logistical problems (e.g. number of hospital beds, preparing quarantine plans, test kits, etc).

You can order a bunch of masks if it makes you feel better, but countries with common mask usage are still seeing a large scale spread so YMMV.

Question is about disruptions caused by people's reaction to the outbreak, not the virus itself.

Stuff like this: https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-virus-italy-supermarkets-are-ru...

The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc..

I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine, to buy enough food for a week, just to avoid the inevitable initial panic that's starting today, when the first case appeared in my country.

All animals panic even in minor danger.

It's not panic. It's reality. Many of us did the same. I went with 2 weeks worth of food, water and toiletries and we already have the usual stock which including refrigirated stuff should be enough for full month if needed. When you see small towns put into quarantine in Europe allowing people in and out only with 'written permission' you know you should prepare family and yourself asap. Get food, water, medicine and everything that might make life easier for you and your family during weeks of quarantine.

Well, I saw a lady who bought out a full cart of flour packages yesterday. There was last 1kg package of salt, and around 6 packages of flour left on the shelf. (normally there's ~200) Yes, it's not a generalized panic, but individual people like that can really screw up the shopping experience for others.

Is it panicking? Dunno, maybe she's just setting up a flour shop, or has 50 hungry necks to feed. But it was certainly unusual.

We regularly buy 10kg of flour because we have a bread maker. The last time I bought bread (not counting when on holiday) is 3.5 years ago. 10kg is enough for over a week.

Full cart is a bit much though if it's like 50kg+

My wife was in a pretty typical Walgreens today and noted that there was a sign in front saying that they didn't have any masks left and that they didn't know when they were going to get more. Inside, there were a number of sections besides masks that were completely empty.

This Walgreens is in Mountain View, a few miles from the main Google campus in California.

What country are you in, if you don’t mind me asking?

>The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc..

>I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine

What's the old saying? "You're not sitting in traffic, you are the traffic." :)

There is at least one preparation that you can take: Make sure you have enough (non quickly perishable) food and essentials such as tooth paste and toilet paper at home so you don't have to go out shopping if you are at home sick for a week.

It's not just if you get sick yourself. If your company closes down its offices and you have to stay at home you may want to minimize your shopping during that time as well.

Masks don't help because of low quality and people lack proper training... you shouldn't touch the mask, you shouldn't reuse it, you should properly dispose it, etc.

A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public. Because you can get this virus by touching infected surfaces and then touching your face. It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces.

I cary a hand sanitizer for those moments in public when I feel the need to scratch my face :-)

Masks do help and you explained why. Its harder to touch your face, nose, lips when wearing a mask. So it does help fight the spread and getting yourself sick easier.

> It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces.

I just read this last night, and from this I had the impression that it is an airborne virus, and that surface spreading is not the main vector:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...

The "airborne" transmission in that link is what I believe is called "aerosol transmission", not airborne. Because it relies on liquid droplets in the air, and not actually able to transmit on something like dist in the air.

There is also transmission (actually the first one mentioned) "Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)"--this does not mention liquid droplets at all, which is why I figured it to be airborne.

That's because many people are disgusting and don't give a fuck about proper hygiene. Just among my acquaintances I need both hands an a foot to count the number that don't even vaguely cover their mouth / nose -- let alone _properly_ cover -- while coughing or sneezing.

No amount of gentle reminder -> passive aggressive suggestion -> explicit suggestion had lasting effects on their behavior. All I could do is be vigilant and recluse myself from their company whenever one's clearly showing symptoms.

The number of people I've seen 'properly' covering their mouth when they sneezed, with their hand instead of, say, elbow sleeve, and then touching all the things, is worrying.

Wearing simple masks and glasses (!!!) would then protect against this vector.

Thank you for correcting that. Big difference between the two and people will happily play 'Chinese whispers' with these bits of information leading to a totally different overall picture.

Airborne transmission doesn't require any other medium than the air itself, even dust is optional.

Is any virus truly airborne?

Measles is indicated as airborn transmission on the R0 wiki[1]. It is pretty crazy with an R0 of 12-18.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

is it possible to reuse a mask if you put the mask through an autoclave?

An N95 isn't going to survive an autoclave...

I think my P100 filters might survive an autoclave. They are the pink disc kind from 3M. Pressure cooking only goes up to 121C @ 15psi, so it isn't as hot as it may seem.

It's not just the pressure and the temperature, it's also the steam. Autoclaves are are pretty nasty environments, and I wouldn't trust a filter that had gone through one. It's very likely the filter medium would have been degraded.

You might be able to use UV-C light sterilization. Strangely, these types of lights are all suddenly sold out on amazon, wonder why... https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07W1PHS9P/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b...

Remember that light can only sterilize the surfaces it contacts. It can not sterilize beneath the surface.

So if droplets containing viruses penetrate beneath the surface of the mask, sterilization with light will not be able to reach them.

Obviously something like this would only make sense under extreme circumstances, when you have to leave the house, but can't use a fresh mask every time, because of shortages.

I assumed the reason not to re-use them is that the paper mask structurally wears out and no longer creates the proper seal on your face.

what about the P100 filter cartridges used on half/full face respirators? Those have a plastic skeleton with a rubber gasket.

They last indefintely, i.e. change the filter when it becomes clogged, which will be approximately never if you're not actually using it in a dusty environment. But check the manufacturer's instructions.

I heard a report that soaking them in salt water and allowing it to completely dry can destroy viruses as the salt crystals from. YMMV. Web search for more information.

What if you microwaved it? To be clear, I don't have any idea if this works or not, I'm just asking. And of course it couldn't have any metal parts.

That works for sponges but it breaks the material down pretty fast. You could possibly use ozone to sterilize the masks if you sealed a container and let it sit at a proper concentration for the correct time period.

> A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public

I wouldn't use a urinal either (I never do anyway, as a former licensed plumber, thosef'n things are NASTY imo). I also flush twice with my back turned before using a public toilet.. not ideal but better than not I think.

I work in hospital

> I also flush twice with my back turned before using a public toilet.. not ideal but better than not I think.

Flushing toilets leads to aerosolized water droplets from the toilet spreading around the room and contaminating nearby surfaces[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toilet_plume

I know, but so does peeing into it. At least when you flush it's re-diluted.

There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level.

Right, but you can prepare for potential societal disruption(s) caused by the disease. Even if you don't get sick yourself, you could be impacted.

The spread seems to be plateu as well. Total numbers will probably be less than 100,000.

It plateaued in China following an incredibly massive quarantine effort. The infection is hitting countries with not nearly the social control measures that China has.

You might be surprised. There are some old laws and powers that are going to be dusted off, and in some other cases it may be the case that governments just claim powers on an emergency basis and essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain.

"essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain"

I very much dont think that is the way this plays out in the western world.

In China, they welded the doors shut on entire residential buildings leaving the people in there to either die or survive on their own. They bagged and gagged people with elevated temperature and force quarantined them. They had crematoriums working over time.

China has complete military control of their population, this is going to go very differently in the West.

China's process was very effective and probably greatly reduced the rate of infection but there is no way people in other countries are just going to sit silently while the same actions are carried out.

Source for these claims?

Much of the world isn't actually under control of a government. Here in the developed world, we've basically bought into the nation-state system, with a strong central government controlling a defined territory with border checkpoints. But many parts of central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and rural areas in other continents aren't like this. The dominant social organization is by tribe, clan, cartel, gang, or warlord; borders are porous or nonexistent; and the government has no authority, not even a monopoly on physical force.

The virus doesn't care whether you believe in governments, and it's just now hitting these regions - Pakistan, Africa, North Korea, etc.

It also plateaued in China IF you happen to believe the numbers they are reporting are genuine, which I would wager they are not.

China's numbers are absolutely not reliable, because:

- they've changed their reporting standards multiple times

- they don't seem to be testing enough people because of test kit shortages, because many people seem to have given up going to hospitals when they're sick because they know they won't get in or because they're barricaded in to their homes or forbidden from leaving

- their media censorship makes it difficult to independently verify the numbers they are reporting

This is complete wishful thinking. It is nowhere near contained

Do not overstock on masks or other supplies. Masks especially should be available to the sick. It's ironic that (I'm sure) someone out there will stock up on 10,000 masks and it will cause them to be in even greater danger because the sick people around them will have fewer masks.

The CDC recommends that sick people wear masks to keep droplets in, and that people who directly interact with sick people wear masks while interacting with the sick person (to stop projectile droplets I presume). The CDC does not recommend masks be worn generally.

Masks help remind you not to touch your face, but you can just put tape on your fingers or something for the same effect (this is just my personal idea).

(This is more of a PSA than a direct reply to your comment.)

2-3 weeks ago people on here were advocating stocking up on masks and selling at a high profit.

what is profitable for the individual may not be profitable for the group.

In Italy it's illegal, you cannot hoard or speculate on basic necessities (as the masks are being considered during the epidemic).

https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2020/02/26/news/coronavir...

Perfect way to guarantee shortages. Let the price float and there is an incentive for businesses to figure out how to increase the supply quickly, thus causing the price to drop.

The economic theory on this is rock-solid and yet it seems impossible to educate the general public or government officials regarding the consequences of price controls.

In cases of extremely skewed demand/supply the price never actually goes down, and all the buyers get hosed. See: concert tickets.

Not the situation we are talking about but even in that situation a government control on the price of the concert tickets could easily create a shortage. An entertainer would just choose to have concerts in a different jurisdiction that didn't limit the prices leading to 0 seats in the location with price controls.

The entertainer makes zero money on the added price of tickets from trading dynamics we are talking about, it’s all middlemen.

Doesn't change the analysis re: supply and demand. Just changes to a discussion of the middlemen as a supplier.

It invalidates what you mentioned re. the entertainer avoiding a certain location due to price control. And btw, price control in this case means “no resale above ticket price” or something similar, not the government controlling the pricing itself. The supply is fixed so there can’t be a shortage (except when it’s caused by price gouging performed by middlemen).

It's not as clear cut as you say.

For example, the large increase in price creates perverse incentives to reduce the available supply and make it available at a higher price (eg. buying all the masks at $n and reselling them at a price greater than n).

A higher price also encourages counterfeiting; making fake masks that sell for $1 isn't that profitable, but if they sell for $50, there's definitely more of an incentive to do so.

You suppose that you only have one "hoarder" (or speculator) in the market.

Once you have many, and if they don't talk together (which would be forbidden), masks would sell lower than what you think

The problem of low-quality or defective merchandise exists at any price point. Adding price controls doesn't prevent that problem and in fact would encourage black markets where defective merchandise is less likely to be detected by consumers or regulators.

You could also try directly killing people for money if that's your thing.

Sorry, but the tape on your fingers is a bad idea. The adhesive from tape attracts germs, and far more than just having bare skin.

Wear gloves instead, to avoid touching your face.

It was just an idea. You're right that it may have adverse effects.

Yet I wonder: Viruses live longer on a "clean-looking" doorknob than they do in a towel, for example. This was very counter-intuitive to me. So when it comes to a virus, would they live longer on skin or on a bandage or piece of tape?

Thank you for acknowledging this. I really appreciate it.

The issue is that the adhesive from tape is a form of glue. It attracts and keeps hold of germs. Plus, it is extremely hard to get fully off in terms of disinfection purposes.

I had a central line (dialysis catheter) in my chest for 4 months for a procedure called plasma exchange. You cannot take a shower with an exposed central line. A single drop of water on your line, or even the moisture/condensation from the shower can literally cause sepsis, as water has a lot of bacteria in it. This happens no matter how well the line is cleaned.

Anyways, I tried taking a shower by covering the line with a Ziploc bag and putting tape around it. I also cut the fingers off of gloves and /sealed the fingers of the glove onto the line with tape/. I literally put glue on the central line, which runs straight to my heart.

I never ended up with sepsis, due to the line only being in me shortly (4 months), but I did get chewed out by the sterility nurse.

Trust me, it is not a good idea.

You got very lucky. Lottery level winning lucky.

Basic lottery is 1 in 14 million winning. I guess "citation needed", having that exact winner on hn is pretty low probability. This is an irrational comment in an irrational subthread. I'm not sure adhesive tape doesn't have high germs density but i'm pretty sure there is little correlation between your finger sticking to a material and a germ sticking to that same material. This message has no positive outcome besides making feel good while i press "reply", it's not intended for you to read it, it's intended for me to re-read it while thinking of this moment.

It does attract bacteria plus other pathogens, plus makes them hard to remove.

For example, in the 90s, roll tape (versus now: single use sterile IV tape) was sometimes used to secure IV lines. Here is a study on IV lines (not central lines):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1496597/

I was phenomenally stupid and also phenomenally lucky not to go in to sepsis for this move.

I do know. Even though I am currently in pharmaceutical remission, I have cheated death a few times as an adult, and I am more aware of medical risks. You would be surprised to know that I am doing well and prospering, especially if you knew my health situation.

This complete internet stranger just wants to say he's happy to hear you're doing well and prospering, and wishes you the best in the circumstances you're in!

> You would be surprised to know that I am doing well and prospering, especially if you knew my health situation

As someone who is in the midst of a difficult medical situation right now (and who cheated death myself 2 years ago during the episode that sent me to ICU and gifted me with yet another chronic condition), I'm very happy for you and hope I can join you in your wellness in the coming months.

Some 15 years ago, I almost fully recovered from a serious medical condition that left me partially paralyzed, in severe pain, and out of work for many months. This time around it's a lot harder, and is taking years instead of months.

Aging sucks.

Thank you for understanding this.

And what use is of mask with a valve for a sick person? They are already sick and valve will let contaminated air straight out? Can healthy people at least buy these?

I think that not recommending masks for everyone is very myopic considering that the virus tends to spread asymptotically.

Even if asymptomatic people transmit the virus "asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote"[1]

[1] - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomati...

WHO can say what they want but considering how the virus popped up in Italy tells a different story. Something has been overlooked.

I agree. It's probably aliens. Or reptilians.

Naturally argumentum ad hominem is always the best strategy.

I think that's a fallacy fallacy right there, but I also think fallacies can be fun responses to stupidity. Fallacy is a strange word. Fallacy.

Home Depot has been out of masks and respirators here for weeks now.

I agree strongly that we shouldn't overstock on masks.

That said, I'd urge everyone to get a few P95 [1] masks for themselves and their family members, in the event that you have to accompany them to a hospital, or even to wear in public if you live in an urban environment.

1. P95 have same filtering capacity as N95, but last for much longer.

Considering the fact that even alcohol-based hand-sanitizer is already sold out at 8 confirmed cases over here, masks seem extremely difficult to get a hold of...

You can limit your exposure.

Lots of people only wash their hands when they use the bathroom, if even that. They touch their faces and mouths a lot more often than they think. If they can learn to change their habits, wash their hands regularly if they go in public, and work from home more often if allowed by their employer, I'd say those are meaningful preparations.

Is there a procedure for when your face itches? Use your arm? Part of a shirt?

You can maximize immune system functioning by making sure you get proper nutrition and plenty of sleep.

Don't forget exercise.

Do you suppose gyms are a bad place to go during an outbreak? So far I haven't stopped going, but seems like it could be an especially nasty hotbed of airborne and surface-based viruses.

You don't have to go to the gym to exercise. Plenty of bodyweight exercise (like push-ups, L-sits, planks, burpees, etc) can be done at home without any equipment.

Investing in a little bit of equipment, like barbells or maybe a pull-up bar, can let you do even more exercise at home.

While I could Google this, I often prefer asking people I 'know' even as tangentially as via HN comments: any suggestions for resources about this? I'd like to exercise more, and I have an entire room available, but I'm not sure where to start. I have the one-handed weight thingies, for one, but a pull-up bar is not an option. I heard one of those ball thingies with a handle is useful?

This app may be useful to you. I've used it for about 6 months and have been pretty happy with it. You can customize what equipment you have available so that it builds you a workout based on that. On the other side, you can look at what equipment it lists and determine what you want to buy.

https://www.fitbod.me

Awesome, thanks for the link!

https://darebee.com is another good site. They have lots of videos explaining various exercises. Just make sure you start with the entry-level exercises to slowly build up your strength.

I'd even recommend to not worry so much about timing your workouts as this causes too much stress, just focus on the exercises themselves in the beginning to make sure you do them properly.

if you're excercising for health, you don't need a gym. Just go for a vigorous walk, do some gardening, maybe a run, or vacuum the house. All of those count as excellent ways to get exercise.

I have no idea why you're being downvoted. Have people forgotten how to exercise without gyms?

I'm not sure I'd personally suggest that hoovering the house is an "excellent" form of exercise, but at least they didn't blindly assume the person was going to the gym purely because they were not aware how to exercise outside of it. Perhaps the community aspect of their gym is what attracts them. None of the replies actualy answer the original question of are gyms are a particularly bad place to go. I would suggest they absolutely are a bad idea as they involve a lot of air conditioning and a lot of shared surfaces. And also a lot of coughing even at the best of the times.

There is a nice book by a convict who used his time in jail to exercise using whatever available, a very inspiring read. The title is Convict Conditioning.

I know this sounds trivial, but there's data that suggests common immune-systems boosters such as zinc and vitamin C do help with covid-19.

https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j...

I'm taking modest levels of Ascorbic Acid, Vitamin D, Quinine Hydrochloride, Zinc, and standardized Forsythia Extract.

As far as I know, zinc pyrithione isn't available in any consumer product, because it is pretty toxic in moderate levels. Without it (from the article) "the concentration of free Zn2+ is maintained at a relatively low level by metallothioneins".

Zinc supplementation may of course help if you are deficient, but the study can't really tell if 'healthy' Zn2+ concentrations contribute anything to the inhibition of viral replication.

There's not really such a thing as 'boosting' your immune system - it's either working properly, or it's not. A 'boosted' / over-active immune system results in auto-immune diseases like Crohn's (which is what I have). Funnily enough I'm being treated with Stelara which actually suppresses my immune system - so it's no 'live' vaccines for me and other vaccines might not work effectively or at all, and I need to be extra careful to avoid getting ill. Working 100% remote is something I am appreciating more and more currently.

> it's either working properly, or it's not

It can be normal, over-active, under-active, and likely both. "working or not" is too simplistic for this discussion.

> A 'boosted' / over-active immune system results in auto-immune diseases like Crohn's (which is what I have).

Yes, but that doesn't mean that a temporary boost couldn't potentially help in certain situations.

Along those lines, I bet if you really needed a specific live vaccine your doctor would have you suspend that drug for a little bit.

Just get some green lentils from the bulk section. Lentils are high in zinc and It's always better to get your nutrition from actual food, rather than supplements which are unregulated and contain god knows what (not to mention it's not how your body normaly absorbs nutrients).

You should be. My business operation supply chains are disrupted. Without certain goods, I can't work.

I am not without, but my suppliers have rationed some things I buy.

How bad are they disrupted? Any idea when they’ll be back up? If you have backup suppliers, are they down too?

I don't think OP is asking about preparing for or avoiding actually getting the disease. OP is asking about preparing for potential shortages of goods if quarantines are ultimately deployed in the US (which is what's already happening globally).

It's hard not to down vote this.

It's wrong, but the question was about what people are doing and thinking.

I think it's important to see what people think and people shouldn't be down voted for being honest.

But I have to be OT and say "a really dangerous variant of the common cold" - It's killing 14% of people over 80 who get it at last estimates. And permanently hurting a lot of people over 80 as well.

And we don't really do flu season as well as we could, as a society we need to step up a bit in general. We could all prepare for even the flu season more than we do. Common cold, perhaps meh.

Me neither, I trust my government will if its required. Could burn some 10 kg and still be OK on weight. More concerned about rest of family.

I'm really surprised there's 300 comments (with lots of panic) and nobody mentioned the official WHO guidelines https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... especially the part about "How to cope with stress during 2019-nCoV outbreak"

Thank you for linking this.

I commented below about doing what I am doing to not worry about it. Naturally it and was immediately dismissed by a panic induced response.

FUD is extremely powerful people.

If you want to stock up on some extra water and food - cool beans. But stay conscious of your own fears and manage your stress levels. Do what you can to stay calm about things and handle your emotions wisely.

While I recognize there might be a good number of people who experience FUD, I imagine there's another segment of people who couldn't be bothered. Procuring extra water and food for something that has a low likelihood of occurring (food and water insecurity stemming from COVID-19) sounds onerous.

It's more an isolation strategy than an actual shortage. If there is news of an outbreak in my immediate area, there will be a run on the grocery store, and they will sell out of items immediately in stock. I'd rather not stand in line, in close contact with strangers in my community, at that moment.

> If you want to stock up on some extra water and food - cool beans

Honestly, more people should be doing this anyway. If you live in an earthquake zone and don't have an emergency preparedness kit, you're in trouble if significant infrastructure damage happens in an earthquake. Likewise for snowstorms, floods, power outages, etc.

It's probably not going to happen, and it's probably not a big deal, but if there is an emergency at some point I don't want to have to tell my neighbours they're on their own for a week because we (minimally) prepared and they didn't.

I'm wondering how realistic a water or power shutoff is, those seem like much bigger concerns for a hurricane or earthquake. For covid-19 it seems like the municipal authorities will be able to keep at least the handful of people working that are required to keep the grids up (even if just about everyone gets infected, it sounds like ~80% of cases only have minor symptoms).

Restaurants shutting down and grocery stores running low on food seems like a more likely scenario.

Regardless, I've now stocked up on 2 weeks of water and about the same of food. Which is a good idea anyway for earthquake preparedness, but something I'd never gotten around to actually doing. So I'm feeling a good balance of prepared but not too stressed about it.

> 2 weeks of water and about the same of food

Everyone keeps saying that, but what does it mean? What food did you buy, and how much water? I can't get a handle on how much that is. I'm not panicing, at all, I just want to have enough when everyone ELSE panics.

I also hate the thought of boredom, so I'm trying every canned fish I can to see what I like, so I at least have some variety and flavour for those two weeks.

Water - 1.5 litres for each day.

Food - 2000 calories per day for every male, 1500 for every female.

And buy a water filter and gas burner/camping stove.

> Everyone keeps saying that, but what does it mean?

It's not rocket science. Take what you eat in a day and multiply it by 14. Go for non perishable things of course (pasta, rice, lentils, canned fruits etc.)

I mean, realistically speaking you could probably go two weeks with <1k cal a day without much trouble.

I personally can’t really imagine the water or utility systems going offline. Is there a realistic risk or recent precedent of that? Eg, I never heard of that happening in China for example and I think we have better infrastructure here

Over the last few weeks, we have acquired enough food/supplies to stay isolated at our house for about 2 months (a combination of bulk rice/beans/grains, and pre-purchasing anything we use regularly which has a long expiration date). We also have medicines/toiletries/etc to last that long.

Maybe 10-12 years ago I read the book 'The Great Influenza'[1], and there are enough similarities between that outbreak and this one that we are taking it fairly seriously.

Although that book isn't perfect, it has a lot of detailed and fascinating explanation on (a) the development of scientific medicine in Europe and then the US (b) the way flu works, is transmitted, etc (c) the way that specific pandemic played out.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Pandemic-Hi...

I was under the impression that the Spanish flu was very different from the regular flu and COVID-19, because it was the young/old people that survived it and the healthy 20-50 year old that died the most. Most people died of the Spanish Flu because of their immune response. It looks like COVID-19 is really mild* for lots of people in that age group.

Am I missing something? Did the Spanish flu start like COVID-19 and evolved later?

I wish people stop calling that Spanish Flu where it's totally unrelated to Spain...

Yeah! Coronavirus doesn't even have anything to do with the beer!

Since you made me wonder:

> corona: "crown" (from latin corōna, meaning "crown")

> virus: "poisonous secretion" (from latin vīrus, meaning "venom" or "poisonous secretion")

> Coronavirus, the virus responsible for 30% of common colds, as well as SARS, has the appearance of a crown (corona) under electron microscopy, due to the spike proteins that coat the viral surface. Viruses, being so small, might have been thought of before they were discovered, to be poisonous secretions (virus) of unknown origin, hence their name.

https://medicaletymology.fandom.com/wiki/Coronavirus

Apparently, corona beer sales are way down due to this unfortunate coincidence

It is unrelated but the mechanism by which the association came about is funny: it was first widely (read: honestly) reported by Spain, therefore everyone associated it with Spain, even thought first cases, including initial deaths, were in other countries which suppressed the news.

That ship has sailed for just about a century.

The flu regularly migrates between pigs, chickens and humans. Whenever it does, the poorly adapted flu is unusually lethal.

The misnamed Spanish flu seems to have killed by triggering a strong immune response. That response is called a cytokine storm. Which means that the stronger your immune system, the more likely you were to be hit hard. It therefore killed the reverse of the groups that normally get killed by diseases.

There is also some evidence that people who experienced the "Russian flu" of 1889-1890 had some level of protection from the Spanish flu.

Primarily death was due to bacterial pneumonia, the cytokine storm likely accelerating the deterioration of the lungs. That particularly viral strain may have been more dangerous, but overall the current pandemic is comparable in death rates.

It would seem during the Spanish flu your best chance of survival was being in a location where strict quarantine and travel restrictions were imposed so the health system was able to cope with those who did contract the virus.

The places with the highest fatality rates were those with poor or non-existent health services or where people didn't seek medical assistance.

The mortality rate in the US was around 0.5%, <1% in East Asia, but 5% in India and as high as 20% in some Pacific nations. Iran's current Covid-19 mortality rate is quite comparable to the Spanish Flu around 14%.

I.e 5x deadlier than the seasonal flu TODAY with an approx 0.1% mortality rate in the US, which has been decreasing steadily, so perhaps only 2-3x deadlier than the normal seasonal flu today on average.

"In 1918, doctors lacked intensive care units, respirators, antiviral agents, and antibiotics, an important fact in light of historical evidence of interactions between influenza and secondary bacterial respiratory pathogens (e.g., Haemophilus influenzae) as a significant cause of death during the pandemic." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/

Yes, the book says the 1918 flu hit healthy robust people the hardest. There are many other differences. For example, that flu had a super short incubation time, so it swept through communities in 7 weeks, and military bases in 4-5. On many bases thousands could become ill in a single day. It's spread was much more rapid.

But there are lots of other similarities as well: Hospitals were rapidly overwhelmed. With both flu and coronavirus, it is the pneumonia that is dangerous (also, apparently true of measles). Some people died very quickly of their own immune response and massive lung damage (SARDs, severe acute respiratory distress) while others succumbed later to secondary bacterial pneumonia. Health authorities were reluctant to acknowledge the problem for fear of creating panic. Many people and communities attempted to self-isolate, with very limited success.

There are some possible similarities that have not yet played out - notably multiple waves of infection with different mortalities and characteristics.

Overall, the book has a lot of detailed scientific explanations that I enjoyed. One of my favorite parts was a detailed explanation of the significance of "H" and "N" in flu names (e.g. H1N1), and why flu mutates so rapidly, and is so likely to cross over in certain animals. Overall, I recommend it if you like detailed but comprehensible scientific explanations.

Here is another one, Spillover, by David Quammen. Apologies for the ugly link.

https://www.amazon.com/Spillover-Animal-Infections-Human-Pan...

With a 2% mortality rate, if there is a breakout then there will be few people who don’t lose somebody they know. I’m worried about my parents. If I stock up on food etc, it will be to enable them stay indoors

Refill your medication(s), that's the biggest one. India produces a lot of drugs and if they get infected, we will see shortage. China also produces a lot of the base chemicals used in medication, so this is worry some. If you have chronic conditions, you really don't want to be without.

Soap and sanitizer. Mostly soap. Soap is equally effective as sanitizer in washing hands, etc. Soap is also much cheaper and more available. If the local region goes into lock down, you're not going out much so soap will work well.

Get one to two weeks of food and supplies in case. There isn't going to be a global shortage, but we may see short term runs on supplies. Include stuff like tooth brush, mouth wash, and etc. For my wife I also stocked up on a larger supplies of feminine hygiene products.

Masks. I got 20 per family member in our local area. For when you need to go out and restock food. Also learn how to properly use the mask.

Actually last year a few pharmacies in France told us they were short of some pills. Then we learned that only a few brands were manufacturing them .. so almost a single point of failure.

Globalization as made this less likely but most countries will now allow emergency imports if the situation gets critical.

Globalization makes this more likely. Before globalization there were manufacturers distributed all over serving different markets. Now there are global monopolies on production (for particular drugs), which makes production very vulnerable to supply chain disruption.

AFAIK that's what the pharmacist hinted at, there are brands, but the manufacturing plants are shared.

If you're a raging alcoholic, don't forget that. Sudden withdrawal can kill you.

Trust me, no alcoholic is going to forget to stock up on booze.

>Refill your medication(s), that's the biggest one.

I take a prescription medication that is a controlled substance. I feel like a criminal each time I fill it. I'm only given exactly the amount I need for the next 30 days and it routinely causes problems when I need to travel out of state around the time of my next refill.

I really wish there was some way of saying "I've been taking this stuff for years, I've clearly never abused it, please give me some buffer for emergencies."

Friend of mine was working for FEMA after Hurricane Katrina. He said he went to lots of houses where they had an elderly family remember with cancer who had run out of their pain meds. And no way to get more.

Wow, that is terrible.

If I were in your shoes I would go to the black market and would secretly maintain a 90-180 day supply buffer, pandemic or no.

This is clearly a case of a law that may have been well-intentioned majorly infringing upon your rights.

The problem with this is that it will cause a practical relief effect that will create a small but consistent reordering latency. "You don't seem too $symptomatic today, how did you handle the past N days?"

This could be easily discerned through individual scrutiny or large-scale automated analysis.

My girlfriend takes medications that are critical to her and there are a few effective things she done that are legal.

Ups the dosage to twice as much and breaks the meds in half. Usually the price is still the same but now there’s twice as much.

Stops taking the meds on some weekends to create a buffer.

Asks a doctor to try another similar medications and express fear about going off the current med incase the new one doesn’t work. Unintended side effect is that you now have twice as much for that month.

Gradually reduce medication dosage and occasionally stop taking it. If you can live without it you’ll be more independent.

A lot of us take controlled medications :/..which are also usually needed more than the easier to get ones that you can stock up on.

Or better yet learn to make soap yourself. Its easy.

Fat, ash, water.

https://www.frugalandthriving.com.au/homemade-lard-soap/

https://www.thesprucecrafts.com/how-to-make-soap-517084

Some things to consider (we're doing most of these):

1. Find out what is going on, the Interwebs are your friends. The press and politicians aren't much use. The bureaucracy (China, Japan, Iran for example) are not much use and may make things worse.

2. Carry around some sanitising, no water, hand cleaner.

3. Get a few decent masks and read up how long to use them.

4. Find out what Fomites are and think about what that means.

5. Read up on hand cleaning. What you do now, CDC style, WHO style, operating theatre style and decide what to do. Start now.

6. Practice coughing and sneezing in a safe way, even if you're not naturally doing that now.

7. Study up on the Bayesian priors of the different ways the disease may hit you, 80% pretty mild. Check incubation times, up to 24 days, so who knows why they're still using 14. Asymptomatic people can spread for all, or most, of those incubation days. Get your mind into thinking about those and all the mechanics. If you're really determined solve some of the ODE's, for SIR, SEIR etc. program that and run your own epidemic progression models.

8. Prepare for a siege if it comes to that. Maybe write out operating procedures and lay in some supplies. For example if people have to deliver food etc. and leave it on the doorstep or whatever, work out the details.

9. Go visit people you care about who are frail or have compromised immune systems BEFORE anything breaks.

10. With Epidemics the populace is generally slow to realise it has started and also slow to realise it has finished. Think about that, prepare yourself. Don't be one of the fools.

11. If you don't already work from home, or have an understanding about that, get it fixed right away.

12. All the above also for your nearest and dearest too.

ENUF.

Working from home doesn't account for having kids who are going to school. That is a larger vector than most workplaces.

We ran a drill a couple of weeks back where everybody worked from home to ensure that if we have to close our office we are able to continue working (assuming we're not ill, of course). This was really just to shake out any issues.

Fortunately, since most of us already work remotely for at least some of the time we didn't have any significant issues.

Beyond that, nothing really.

Wow, that's refreshingly forward thinking! I wish my company took remote work seriously.

Yeah there is nothing special about the internet in the office!

We can watch people and make sure they work - Management

And what happens when the Management goes on Vacation during the holiday break? - Me

* Stunned Management

We are in a similar situation. 99% of the time everyone is working remote so we don't even really think about this stuff anymore. Our company has been operating like this for nearly a decade. There is a core group that works at a physical office, but they also have the ability to work remote for an indefinite period of time if the need arises.
Distributed/remote companies are amazing for handling disaster scenarios like this. Hurricanes, floods, pandemics, zombies, you name it. We usually just work right through it.

If we are constrained to work remotely, the network may experience issues too.
The 4G and internet also need actual interventions. If we must work remotely, internet companies may also have to.

Having one or just a handful guys work on-site shouldn't be a problem.

That's proactive thinking, good job. We're looking at the maximum user limits of our hardware and licenses and expect to buy some more licenses for the VPN appliance.

I haven't done too much, but that's because I'm generally prepared with 2 months food/water supply for general purpose emergencies. Living in the Pacific Northwest, we're expecting a pretty large earthquake as we're statistically overdue. Once panic has set in, it's too late to prepare for much of anything. Preparing is taking action beforehand, not after. I mean, if we even get news of 100 degree weather in this part of the country, the air conditioners fly off the shelves. When there's a possibility of a snow storm, everybody panics at once and empties the grocery shelves.

Definitely good to be prepared, but AFAIK there is no such thing as being "statistically overdue" for an earthquake.

Yeah there is. It is not like saying that if black hit on roulette 10x in a row that one would be statistically overdue for red. Because those are completely independent events with equal probability on each trial.
With earthquakes if statically speaking a massive earthquake hits on a roughly 1 in 500 year interval, the stresses at the plate boundary are much more likely to be greater at year 600 than at year 1 after a massive earthquake.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18a...

If only earthquake modelling was so simple as to say you were overdue for an earthquake simply based on accumulated stress. Unfortunately, the Gutenberg-Richter law is not prescriptive, but a time independent statistical observation which assumes independent events, which is why saying you're due for another one is very much like gambler's fallacy. Of course we know that there are underlying physical processes which make means there should be some underlying dependence to be found, and there are attempts at time-dependent models out there, but for our purposes independence works.
If you're interested in the statistics around recurrence times, can I recommend this [1]? It's fairly well written and clear and it deals with this issue fairly comprehensively and directly.
[1] - http://www.crm.cat/en/About/People/Researchers/ACorral/Docum...

There is no law of averages.

Quoting from Corral 2006:
"the longer since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next". "the belief that the longer the time to get an earthquake,the bigger its size, is false".

I believe the parent is referring to the fact that there have been large earthquakes with remarkable regularity in the PNW every ~500 years for the past few thousand years, and it's been well over 500 years since the last one.

I'm not that informed about geology, but as far as I understand, earthquakes are not independent random events but a result of stress accumulation on faultlines over time and released in sudden bursts i.e. earthquakes; and if a particular faultline has not had a release in a long time, then this means that when it happens, the next earthquake is likely to be stronger.

Whether or not coronavirus turns into a stop-all-of-society-for-weeks event, China already stopped much of their society for a while. That means that things made in China are going to get scarce in a month or so. I therefore am paying attention to what things that I regularly use are made in China, and buying a few extra now, so that I can take a month or two disruption in the supply.

If you speak to anyone who works in supply chain, they're all experiencing massive disruptions. Traffic from Chinese ports has slowed significantly, these things take some time before they start affecting our store shelves. Some people will be quite surprised to see how many things rely on Chinese supply, such as pharmaceuticals. Even if a product isn't exported in a finished form from China, vast amounts of our low-level supply chains rely on China.

Next some ex AWS engineer will quit Amazon to make a startup disrupting the supply chain industry with Shuffle Sharded Supply Chains.
Gotta limit that blast radius after all.

It depends on which part of China. Some of our manufacturers have already started work and shipping. Few of them haven't resumed work and expect to on first week of March.
Most of our suppliers are in India and Nepal but it's business as usual in these countries

A lot of food comes from China

I guess it's the selective aspect of a question like this but I'm genuinely surprised that so many people in this thread are taking actual measures.

Not too farfetched if you read a lot of news and see what is going on in other countries that are affected.

Most of that's going is overreacting people hoarding supplies.

Precisely. Which causes supply shortages, and then you can't buy what you need. The whole point is to be ahead of the crowds.

So basically a bank run but with naturally (not artificially) limited resources. Great...

Ironically, when I considered the likely outcomes, the one that convinced me to stock up on food was not actual supply chain distruptions (which I see as possible but fairly unlikely), but that mass hording will lead to shortages (which I see as very likely).

Kinda like a run on the banks. There may be no good reason for it, but it's still gonna happen.

Shortages of what? Supermarkets in northern Italy have been restocking without problems, there is a shortage of N95 face masks on amazon, but they're not even proved to be useful for healthy people

There aren't shortages until there are. All seems normal until the tipping point. Don't go out and buy up 2 months of supplies in one swoop, unless you want to raise eyebrows and lead to the perception of shelves emptying and then causing it to come true. Buy a weeks worth of extra supplies every other day for a week or two.

I grew up in a hurricane-prone state in the US. 95% of the time people stock up and panic and nothing happens. I'm talking about gas shortages and empty aisles in the grocery store. But the 5% where something does happen you wish you stocked up because you're not even able to leave the area because there is no gas. Not debating N95 masks effectiveness but I would rather be at least slightly repaired because things go south really fast when people get hungry.

Maybe it's more common in the US as it's more sparsely populated? As in there are more potentially isolated cities?
The scenario you're describing doesn't seem plausible to happen in Milan

"It can't possibly happen here!" says increasingly nervous man.

Hi! Are you following me from the other thread? o.o
It's not "It can't possibly happen here!", more like "it hasn't happened in any place in western Europe in recent memory". We've had major earthquakes and stuff, but nothing that "stocking food" would have been useful for, (afaik)

Which brings us back to the matter at hand; devastating plagues have happened many times in Europe. This one is probably not going to be devastating, but we really don't know the effect of this disruption in today's society.

Fully agree with this (especially considering the last few days), my disagreement was with the whole "prepping" thing, doesn't seem to be useful

> Maybe it's more common in the US as it's more sparsely populated? As in there are more potentially isolated cities?
My impression is that Europeans generally don't know what real severe weather is like. A hurricane that happens to hit close to a population center while it has a strong eyewall is incredibly devastating. Think of it like a tsunami, windstorm, and a family of tornadoes all at the same time.
The wind will knock down trees which crash into houses, block roads, and take down power lines. That alone means most of your human infrastructure is gone. Ambulances cannot reach you, you cannot get out, it's dark, communication technology stops working, you may be overheating without air conditioning, food quickly starts spoiling.
I lived in Orlando when Hurricane Charley hit. Thousands of giant live oak trees were blown over. The drive from my house to my girlfriend's normally took ten minutes. After the hurricane, it took me over an hour to get there because I had to contend with billboards in the road, downed power lines, and enormous trees blocking roads everywhere. Many places were simply inaccessible.
If you are close to the coast, add a storm surge to that. Mass flooding surges through neighborhoods. A tide of opaque, dirty, water containing all manner of dangerous debris. Roads are washed away, houses collapse. People drown. During Hurricane Katrina, a common failure mode was people who climbed into their attic to escape the rising floodwaters, only to get trapped in there and drown when the water level reached the attic itself. (Since then, New Orleanians learned not to go into your attic during a flood unless you bring an axe to chop through the roof.)
Most hurricanes are not this bad. They lose energy quickly when they make landfall and their strength diminishes with distance from the center. But there are half a dozen hurricanes every year and when you throw that many darts at the Gulf coast, eventually some of them will hit.

Thanks for the answer, it's very likely that it's mostly caused by the more likely extreme weather in the USA
The most similar thing that comes to mind is the last major earthquake, but even then I don't think stocking food would have been useful, the problems were rebuilding infrastructure and buildings, not shortages of stuff

You are part of the panic stocking problem

How is buying food before the shortage contributing to the panic stocking problem?

The same way withdrawing from a bank you expect to have a bank run soon does? This is what causes bank runs.

However, the problem is if you don't try to get stuff before or during the panic you get screwed yourself. Its why its a dangerous feedback loop. If you don't join in you lose/ get negatively effected by it.
Its kinda of a prisoners dilemma but at a larger scale.

The difference is, a bank only has a certain amount of money, while a grocery store can turn over inventory on a daily or weekly basis. So if I stock up now before everyone else does, I can actually make less of an impact if and when there is an eventual need for everyone to prepare to stay home for a week.

Functionally the grocer has a limited supply also because there is only so much production/shipment capacity. I agree if you do it early enough your impact is minimal.
But if you withdraw early enough from a bank then the bank can in theory safely exit from its positions and become more liquid

Mass hoarding is a supply chain issue. one in which the supply chain cant handle the peak demand. Whats worse about mass hoarding is it can cause feedback that amplifies it.

Not overreacting: This is not the flu, current estimates are ~20% of cases require hospitalization. Where it has hit with full force, hospitals fill up and people drop dead in the streets. China has shut down big parts of their economy and put major cities into quarantine.
Not hoarding: Empty shelves are how capitalism sends signals to producers that they need to increase production, much like how packet loss tells TCP to cut back on its rate of sending. My local Lowe's has been out of N95 masks for a month.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/gu...

> Not hoarding: Empty shelves are how capitalism sends signals to producers that they need to increase production, much like how packet loss tells TCP to cut back on its rate of sending. My local Lowe's has been out of N95 masks for a month.
You should look into the beer distribution game [0]. Empty shelves don't always signal what we think they signal. And increased production cannot be scaled back as easily as TCP packets.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game

Meh, I'm in Italy and there's not much going on: some small panic in some parts of the population, school closed and stuff. Nothing worth preparing for. All the deaths were very sick people
Edit: apparently OP by "other countries that are affected" meant "the most badly hit places in Wuhan" and thinks it's going to happen everywhere in the world. I repeat that in Italy there's no apocalyptic scenario going on

Think of it this way. You are currently living in Wuhan circa mid-to-late January. Extrapolate from there.

Mortality in the west is way lower than what's been reported in China, healthcare and hygiene are very different, as is the distribution network. Even in wuhan the situation is stabilizing

Mortality in the west is way lower because the scale of the disease has not yet reached outbreak proportions. When it reaches outbreak proportions, such as what we saw in Wuhan, hospitals get completely overrun. There are not enough ICU beds or ventilators to support patients. Mortality rate spikes.
You are totally mistaken if you think that this cannot happen in the West. But by all means continue to bury your head in the sand.
By the way, you are in a country where the cultural norm is to greet one another with cheek-kissing. You're really in no place to lecture anybody else on hygiene.

I'm sorry if the comment about hygiene sounded offensive, as a non native speaker I hope my tone was more polite than yours, please let me know if it isn't so I can edit the message

That's because we still have plenty of reserve ICU capacity. As soon as that is maxed out the picture changes, rapidly. So better hope we never reach that stage.

"we still have plenty of reserve ICU capacity"
From what I've heard the US health care system is already close to being overwhelmed every year due to seasonal flu.

Some measures are easier that others. It is important to have at least a basic level of preparedness. E.g., get sleep and eat nutritious food to keep your immune system optimal.

You can't believe any numbers coming out of china. They are having to build new hospitals. Watch what they do not what they say.

Well taking measures is a broad range. I'm boosting my dry food buying schedule. aka spend 10 bucks more on beans I'll eat eventually anyway. Apocalypse here I come

I'm not surprised, since the CDC stated that everyone should prepare.

I wash my hands well and try to avoid touching my face. I try to avoid touching bathroom door handles and use some type of napkin or glove. I have been doing this for a long time, so its not really something I am doing just for this virus.
If you read CDC website they also recommend washing hands and avoid touching your face. It is much harder if you have small kids, just don’t forget to also wash their hands if they have been out in public places.

General advice for any bug that transfers trough fecal-oral route, not just for COVID-19:
1. Dot's store your toothbrush in the bathroom (at least during the times when you suspect that some family member might get infected). There are fecal matter particles in the bathroom air. You can get the ass-to-mouth transfer in the same household from toothbrushes stored in the bathroom.
2. Close the toilet lid before you flush and leave it closed. It does not solve the issue but it helps.

I'm also a long-time supporter of these. A bonus of #2 is that it puts everyone on equal ground, no arguments about leaving the seat up or down.

Yes, it's my go to for the stupid argument as a pet owner.

I never thought of toothbrush issue. I keep a cap on my brush and store it in cabinet

That doesn't do anything. Store the brush part submerged in alcohol, Listerine, or hydrogen peroxide.

Mythbusters tested storing toothbrushes outside the bathroom and found it doesn't really make a difference.
https://go.discovery.com/tv-shows/mythbusters/videos/surpris...

I really wonder how we started to have the toilet and place for washing up in the same room. Especially when you have more than one person it is so much more convenient to have them separate.

Turns out space is expensive

Some people like to wash their hands after they poop.

This solution is pretty nifty:
https://images.victorianplumbing.co.uk/images/Alaska-Combine...

These are good everyday recommendations, along with the vampire cough/sneeze technique, which I really wish would become more widespread.

I've been doing that but what happens when you released your germs into your elbow/sleeve? It wouldn't get cleaned or sanitized until you wash your clothes. So I think if you are near a sink, it would probably be better to cover nose and mouth with hand and then clean right away. But yeah, I usually do the vampire method when I'm on the go.

"I've been doing that but what happens when you released your germs into your elbow/sleeve?"
The idea is that they stay there, rather than floating through the air and infecting someone else. While "lots of germs in your sleeve" may trigger our disgust reaction, they aren't a problem until they actually get somewhere where they can reproduce. Our disgust reaction is useful and there for a reason, but a little unfocused for a species that generally understands how germs work now.
It's particularly important for the "first few" sneezes, when you don't know if you're sneezing because of dust and this is just a one-off sneeze like any other, or if it's merely the first of a long series because you've got something and you're blasting viruses. Obviously, if you're sneezing so much that you, shall we say, "exceed the capacity" of your sleeve, then please take additional appropriate steps. But a little bit is still better off shot into your sleeve than the air.

Right, but let's say someone grabs your arm, maybe a child. Or you cross your own arms not thinking about it and back on your hands. That's what I was curious about.
"Most germs can survive on fabrics for some time." [2]
And it seems some germs linger longer on clothes than skin!
"Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), another cold-like virus that can cause serious illness in children, can survive on worktops and door handles for up to 6 hours, on clothing, and tissues for 30 to 45 minutes and on skin for up to 20 minutes." [1]
However, "Flu viruses can also survive as droplets in the air for several hours". [1]
But, "Parainfluenza virus, which causes croup in children, can survive for up to 10 hours on hard surfaces and up to 4 hours on soft surfaces." [1]
So there are no absolutes but it seems to me, the best would be in your hand and then immediately clean. But if that's not feasible, probably vampire style is best. Even though some germs could linger longer on your clothes than hands, if you can't clean your hands immediately then the contact spread risk factor would be worse than the extra linger time.
[1] https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/how-lo... [2] https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/can-cl...

I stocked up on this new limited edition Eggo cereal, as it is the spiritual successor to the long forgotten Waffle Crisp, the #1 cereal from my childhood. Honey Comb simply does not compare, don't even bother mentioning it. If things start getting scary, I'll stock up on some milk.
(I'm not doing anything)

I've already been preparing as a hobby for the last 3 years, not specifically for coronavirus, but here's how I'm prepared for it:
- I work remotely, so I can hunker down at home and have my income totally unaffected.
- I've close to 6 months worth of food, and I've been buying more in the last month as the news continues. I can give some tips on what I think is good inexpensive food to get in case anyone is interested.
- I'm fasting regularly, which will realistically extend my food supply. Most people calculate their food supply by 3 meals a day plus snacks, but you can go days without eating. Right now I'm closing in on 72 hours without food. I'm perfectly fine. You get used to it. The key is getting your electrolytes and getting out of your sugar addiction.
- I have lots of water stored up, although that's not going to be much of a problem with COVID-19. Several filters meant to remove viruses, though I have a distiller so I would probably just use that if I was really that paranoid about my water, which I probably won't be.
- My medicine cabinet has everything you can think of and more. I have 2 first aid kits and a trauma kit. I have what it takes to turn the entrance to my home into a decon chamber, if need be. I have tons of bleach and disinfectants.
- I have full gas masks with filters, including adapters for 3M filters, which should be perfectly sufficient to remove droplets in the air. I also have full tyvek suits in case there's a worst case scenario but I have to leave my home. I have lots of N95 masks, but obviously you can't count on those for very much. I certainly don't have the belief that even the gas masks will prevent anything. It's just hedging my bets.
---
All that said, I am not paranoid. I don't even have anxiety over it. Those things I mentioned would only come into play if things went extremely bad. My life wouldn't be very different if I had to stay indoors for months on end, so long as utilities continue to operate. Even if the supply chain broke down, I would probably be better off staying indoors than trying to bug out to somewhere else.
One other thing I'm doing is trying to sell off a high value items I've been holding on to, but I'm selling them off now because the money could save me from strife if there's widespread infection and my job totally falls apart.

> I'm fasting regularly, which will realistically extend my food supply.
Isn't fasting the opposite of storing food for an emergency?
Surely storing food on your body as fat is one of the safest and easiest ways to store it.

Yes, you're technically burning through your body's food supply when you fast. While that has survival implications, that's not really the point. The average American overeats like crazy and is addicted to junk food. Fasting helps to break that addiction so that you're more likely to use your crisis food wisely and not feel hunger pangs. When I tell people that I comfortably fast for 4 or more days, they think it's crazy and they can't imagine it, but it's really not that hard. That tells me that people are liable to digging into their food too early on in a survival situation.
The truth is that while I am gradually burning body fat intentionally, I've still got weeks worth of fat on my and probably will when I decide to reduce my fasting back to eating one meal a day. I'd rather burn that fat and eat minimally for the first week or two of a crisis before digging into my reserves. Let's say I learn that the supply chain will be broken for longer than expected; I want to have food around so I can calmly address the issue without having to panic about where I'm going to get my next meal.
To put it simply, I don't think most people have the discipline to not pig out on their earthquake kit or their pantry if they're stuck at home during a pandemic. There's a bit of a caloric tradeoff in gaining that discipline, but I think it's worth it.

What fasting method do you practice? It sounds interesting!

I don't have much of a specific method, but usually I try to go at least 48 hours and limit myself to a 1 hour eating window. The key is getting your electrolytes. It's amazing how big a difference they make. Otherwise, I just take fasting day by day. I try to be conscientious and recognize whether I'm genuinely hungry or just desiring food because I'm bored. If it's the former, I'll break my fast. I eat pretty healthy when I break my fast, but I don't make a fuss about too much carbs or whatever because I'll get satiated too quickly to even get close to overeating.

since you sound well versed - what would be a good food-free way to get electrolytes?

The best way is to make an electrolyte drink yourself. Here's my recipe:
- 2 Liters of water
- 1/2 teaspoon of pink salt
- 1 teaspoon of potassium chloride
- 1/4 teaspoon of food grade epsom salt
- Lemon and stevia used sparingly to taste
It's not the best tasting thing ever, but you get used to it. Using filtered water will make it much more palatable. I think salts make poor tap water quality more obvious.
You can always drink Powerade Zero or something like that. I don't think there's really anything wrong with that, and I drink those sometimes. It's just more expensive and the artificial sweetener might spike insulin.(I doubt that's a big deal) The recipe I described is pretty dirt cheap.
I used to have a hard time fasting for more than a day or doing a ketogenic diet because I simply wasn't getting my electrolytes. This was accelerated by the fact that I was drinking way too much water and urinating them out. Replacing electrolytes throughout the day keeps me from feeling miserable.

One might think pedialyte was the best formulated option, but it tastes terrible in my opinion.

I've never had pedialyte, but I don't imagine it tastes better or worse than what I make. :)

48 hours is about the most that I have done.
Even at 24 hours you begin to recognize how much of modern life revolves around eating. Trying taking a stroll through the city while fasting. Within 10 seconds you see people eating icecream, candy bars, cokes, a zillion restaurants, convenience stores, not to mention alcohol.
With fasting I found I had low energy and would be really, really bored. There was a lot of temptation to fill time with just munching on something.
I also found that when I broke my fast, I didn't eat as much as I expected to. No huge pigout meal or anything.
I am not religious, but I think Ramadan is an example of a really healthy religious practice because it reminds people of their relation to food.

This is a strange thread for me to suggest this, but check out the Zero Fasting app.

Heard of it but never tried it. Thanks for the suggestion!

You seem to think it's obvious that you last longer if you ration yourself rather than eat until the food is gone and then burn fat. That sounds reasonable, but I can't exactly think of a logical argument why. Why do you think it should be true?

You make a valid point. Overall, I look at fasting as a form of preparedness before a situation because it trains the body and mind to not crave to eat in excess. But, as you correctly pointed out, I was thinking of fasting as long as much as possible to try and limit digging into my food reserves. There may be strategy in saving body fat for later in a crisis. I'm not sure.
My line of thinking is that, early on in a crisis, I don't know how long a crisis is going to last or how intense the looting will be. It could be that a week goes by and all the store shelves are bare; although I'll have potentially put myself at risk by lowering my body fat, I'd still feel more secure having extra food for myself and perhaps someone else than having eaten most of it when I didn't need to and now there's no more food to go around. Having extra food around the point at which I may need to get out of Dodge seems preferable to me than to hit the road with only bodyfat and few to no provisions.
I don't think there's a good answer to that. You make a great point. I do still think fasting is a useful in helping people break food addictions and learn self control.

Your body learns how to fast, just like it learns how to run. If you fast regularly, you body switches into "fasting" mode quickly, and you feel much less of an impact cognitively or physically, than if you've never fasted before (or haven't fasted for a long time).
If it comes down to who can just survive the longest with zero calories, someone weighing 300 pounds is probably going to out-last me. But if there's any level of physical or mental activity required to survive and/or actually acquire calories, I'm going to have a big advantage.
EDIT And if, as another commenter mentioned, it comes down to making a low number of calories last a long time -- again I'll have a big advantage.

Absolutely! A lot of is is psychological, too. I try not to bring up the topic of fasting too much around people, but when I do, people think it's nuts to even just eat one meal a day! Of course, I would have thought that's nuts years ago. But after trying it myself, even if I don't continue to fast regularly, I know that I could do it if I needed to and that it wouldn't be a big deal.

It's so weird -- people say, "Oh I could never do that, I get SUUUPER hungry." Um, do you think I don't get super hungry? But it's not linear. People are 1 hour late for a meal and they're a little hungry; 2 hours late and they get quite hungry, 3 hours and they're super hungry. They extrapolate, and think that after 24 hours they'll be writhing in agony or something. That's not how it works.

A very rough rule of thumb is that your body can convert ~1% (probably closer to 0.8%) of your body fat into usable calories per day. If you're going to rely entirely or partially on stored body fat, be sure you have enough to cover your target calorie deficit.

"All that said, I am not paranoid. I don't even have anxiety over it. Those things I mentioned would only come into play if things went extremely bad."
Likewise. To some extent, I recommend doing some prep precisely so that you don't have to panic. If you have some basic prep, you can worry a lot less about "what if earthquake" or "what if power goes out for a week" or "what if pandemic", because you know that while you may not be prepared for everything and it may be hard, at least you're going to be caught completely flat-footed.
Also, I would just feel like an idiot sitting there in my house in week 3, wishing I had X, when X was like $12 or whatever trivial sum just a month ago. For values of X like "soap" or "shampoo" or something, I'm not even "saving money". I was just too lazy to make sure I had a stock on hand, despite literally months of warning this quarantine was likely coming. I'm trying to help future-me to not feel like an idiot.

What about guns/ammo?

I wasn't going to talk about that because I think it'd be frowned upon on HN, but now that you mention it...
I own a .22 long rifle and have tons of ammo. I've been thinking of getting a glock but haven't gotten around to it. It's not the best for self defense, but it's a heck of a lot better than no gun at all. It's ridiculously easy to shoot accurately. The ammo is cheap and ubiquitous, which is another advantage.
There's other defense items that I would use first if possible. I own some cans of police grade pepper gel, tasers, a slingshot, and a combat knife, among other things.

Regardless of the virus, now is the cheapest I have seen ammo in 15 years. Ammoman has 1k rounds of brass 5.56 for $289 shipped. I’d stock up before the election run.
https://www.ammoman.com/

What for? To shoot the virus?

> I can give some tips on what I think is good inexpensive food to get in case anyone is interested.
I'm interested! I've mostly heard of canned foods and the military-style rations / dried meals that last many years (although those are actually a bit pricey, I think).

The dried food and MREs aren't bad. But they can be overkill, or too heavily relied upon. I guess it's a nice idea that there will always be a stockpile of food ready to go, but I figured out that I'd rather keep around some regular food that keeps well that I can slowly rotate through. Don't get me wrong, I think that ration food is great if you're going to be mobile. I keep dried ration meals inside a backpack for that purpose.
I don't want to discourage anyone from buying prepared meals if that's what would make them feel better. A hefty fee for some tubs of ready-to-go meals that last 20+ years can provide peace of mind. That said, here's a list of food that I stockpile that I think are the best value:
(Most of this will seem obvious, but I've also owned lots of survival meals, and a lot of what's described here is what's in those anyway)
- Peanut butter: One jar is more than enough fat/sugar/protein for a day's worth of calories, multi-purpose, can be eaten straight, no cooking required, portable, doesn’t require can opener. Powdered peanut butter exists but is more expensive and I don’t really care for it, but it might make sense to you. A jar at Wallmart is $1.58.)
- Canned meat: I normally don't eat canned meat, but in a crisis, having it can be a morale booster. Spam has all the advantages of peanut butter, but in meat form; A can of "Luncheon Meat" at either Wallmart is also around $1.50. Corned beef hash is very tasty and cheap. Canned tuna and pink salmon are good, too.
- Dried fruit: I prefer banana chips because they keep the best. Takes no preparation. Can be added to all sorts of things as well.
- Oatmeal: It's cheap and versatile. It requires water, but it doesn't necessarily need to be cooked. You can just use cold water and let it soak for a while. Tasty, filling, and can be made plain, sweet, or even savory. Add a boillon cube to a pot of oatmeal and you've got an easy evening meal. It's not great, but it'll fill you up.
- Pasta: Ramen noodles, mac n' cheese, etc. Stuff that's quick to make and requires the least preparation.
- Rice: A 20 lb sack of rice can be as cheap as $8, perhaps less depending on where you live.
- Honey: Very versatile, can be used in place of sugar in a lot of cases, needs no refrigeration, lasts ages.
- Ghee or shortening: Both are shelf stable at room temperature and can be used in place of butter.
- Hot sauce, salt, spices, etc. All are dirt cheap but can liven up dull food. As I mentioned before, bouillon cubes are handy.
- Coffee crystals, hot cocoa powder
- Vinegar: For cleaning and can also add flavor.
- Alcohol: We can all use a little liquid morale on occasion. Good for sanitation and can be used as fuel in desperation.
---
A lot of people recommend beans. I don't because they take longer to cook than rice and they're too fibrous; have fun eating too many beans and sharting your pants while the world is dying around you! It's not like it's bad to have beans, but I've gotten rid of most of mine for that reason at this point.
If you could only buy one item, I'd definitely go with peanut butter.

I have a fireplace, a gas furnace, and an electric grid connection, but only one of these is definitely functional at the moment. If I were to stock up on supplies, I would have to know my situation in the event stuff goes kerblooie. Do I have water? Is it hot? Does it seem clean but actually is full of bacteria?
Often people recommend that you prepare for disasters by buying things that you will periodically use up, so they don't get really stale or spoiled. I really can't face eating the amount of spam that it would require to insure against a significant disaster, assuming there isn't one. Or peanut butter.
If I have water and the ability to cook, potatoes seem like pretty much the cheapest source of calories that won't quickly spoil as long as you keep them where it's dark and cool. I wonder why people don't recommend stocking up on them?

That's why I have extra camp stoves, propane cans, sternos, lighters, etc. If you're worried about contaminated water, you can either sanitize it with some bleach or use a water filter from a brand like Sawyer or Lifestraw. Or distill it.
> I really can't face eating the amount of spam that it would require to insure against a significant disaster, assuming there isn't one. Or peanut butter.
Hah! Admittedly, I usually go through more of the pasta, oatmeal, and rice over time than I do the other things like spam. However, I've got a can of spam here that has a "best by" date of 2025. It probably will last beyond that if the conditions are right. So let's think about this... Let's say you have 30 cans of spam, enough to have one every day for a month. If they last about 5 years on the shelf, that means you'd have to eat 1 can every other month if I understand the math correctly. Doesn't sound too bad to me! Of course this does mean keeping somewhat close track of what's closer to expiration.
> If I have water and the ability to cook, potatoes seem like pretty much the cheapest source of calories that won't quickly spoil as long as you keep them where it's dark and cool. I wonder why people don't recommend stocking up on them?
I don't know. I have no experience with storing potatoes, so I don't know how long they last on their own. That seems like a good idea on the face of it. Sorta off topic, I do know one guy who stealthily plants potatoes in the foothills and occasionally digs them up to eat, with the side motivation that they'd be supplemental survival food if need be. I don't know how practical that is, but that's kinda neat nonetheless.
Awesome username, btw.

"that means you'd have to eat 1 can every other month if I understand the math correctly"
Doing anything consistently over time sounds easier than doing it in a hurry.

How do you get electrolytes when fasting?

Via something you drink

Check this one out: https://kale.world/the-lowest-calorie-electrolytes-for-fasti...
Basically: - cream of tartar (no cream, it's just potassium bicarbonate)
- spinach / watercress / swiss chard (for magnesium)
- table salt ( for sodium and chloride)
- coffee (although not super high in electrolytes, it's got a great balance of them, and if you drink 5 cups or more it really adds up)
Don't go with sports drinks (they're only good for sodium and contain very little other electrolytes).

I live in HK, so we're already living through this.
I've basically been working remotely. I haven't used public transport since CNY. We do not go out at all, unless it is necessary.
The main concern is the mask shortage. We probably go through 4 masks a week, and we generally only go out twice a week right now strictly for the essentials. We will need to get more soon, or we will run out before April.
Maintaining a high standard of hygiene is something people tend to do already in HK, but it's more important than ever right now. We thoroughly clean our flat every Saturday morning and wash hands whenever handling something unhygienic or just in general. As the virus can spread through waste water systems, we flush out unpumped drains as well. When buying products, we only use e-payment to avoid loose change. Most places have gloves in addition to masks, and have hand sanitizer, so there's no excuse to not use these things.
HK does not have a large supply buffer due to the small spaces. If demand for a good spikes, places will run out quickly, and it generally takes 1-2 weeks for something to get back. So we also try to get as much as we need ahead of time, but space for storing lots of food here is limited.

I'm making preparations, but I think I'm going to have to make even more. Having one child under two, and another just about to be born, I really can't afford their exposure, when they'll still be in a developmental phase that leaves them especially prone to permanent damage.

I think you should take whatever reasonable precautions help you feel better, but just to put your mind at ease a little: one of the few bright spots with this virus is that it doesn’t seem especially dangerous to kids. To my knowledge there have been zero deaths of any kids under the age of 10. I have a 4 year old and I’m much more concerned about her parents and grandparents than her.

> I have a 4 year old and I’m much more concerned about her parents
Isn't that you? :)

Yes :)

We ought to ship all our kids off to some boarding school somewhere, and deliberately infect the lot of them. Once they've recovered and are immune, they can come home again!
Unsurprisingly, I've not actually suggested this to my kids, who I doubt would be too happy, but way back before the measles vaccine, parents did hold measles parties so all the kids got measles while they were young enough for it to be relatively mild. To be clear: not recommended for measles these days - just get the vaccine.

By not having kids.
Joking, but although we are well prepared for isolation (work mostly from home, live in the countryside in one of the remotest countries in the world, have off-grid solar and 3 rainwater tanks and could probably forage enough to live for a long time from fishing and gathering), all of that is undone by having a school aged kid.
That means unavoidable contact with a wide group of other kids, from a variety of different home situations, several of whom may have runny noses etc. at any point in time.

We are in a similar situation (cottage in a fairly isolated plot in Ireland, 100% remote work) but the toddler is quite the transmission vector.

Empirically 3 out of 4 times I get the cold, it is from one of my kids.
If things get really bad I imagine schools will close. If kids are “old enough” they may get some remote homework. Not great but doable.
But if you have a toddler you are pretty much stuffed. I can’t imagine what stay at home quarantine would to my 3 year old. It gets bad enough when we get stuck for the weekend because of storms... but TWO WHOLE WEEKS OR MORE?!!

Ugh, agree. I’m in NYC and I have a 4 year old. The prospect of my wife and I both working from home with our daughter for weeks (or longer?!?) is nightmare fuel. Seriously considering trying to rent something in the woods outside the city for a few months but that comes with its own issues...

I believe kids are actually much more resistant to this virus.

For those of you who think the odds of dying from this outbreak are low: you're probably right. However, rolling the dice with any kind of pneumonia is a bad idea. Viral pneumonia opens you up to potentially acquiring a secondary bacterial pneumonia infection, which have much higher mortality rates. Bacterial pneumonia has a 30% mortality rate.
I had pneumonia in the past, and that experience was the only time I truly believed that I might die. It's a truly incapacitating condition.

Shifting my graduate students from other projects to work on coronavirus work.

Very appropriate username.

When Ebola was kicking off a few years ago I had a realization: If you wait to prepare until everyone agrees preparation makes sense then it's too late. That said the prepper mindset is a slippery slope... so I think the answer is to prepare some but don't get too into it.

I'm obsessed with China and to watch a modern society go from 100 to near zero, is incredible. That concerns me especially living in San Francisco where it seems society is already fragile to say the least.
- I stopped taking public transportation on January 20th; so I'm biking to work now. I'm much more healthy because of this decision
- invested in Gold, Gold stocks and puts expiring March 20th betting against the market (Though I did most of this 2 years ago because of the trade war, and the puts were purchased in December)
- I've got some extra food and water, and lots of purell
- I've called my grandparents and told them, the virus is very dangerous effecting older people [1]. I told them to stock up on food medicine, and if they hear word of it spreading to stay indoors.
[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates...

Stupid question (or maybe not?) but theoretically speaking would someone who's willing to take the chance (~96%) benefit from intentionally contracting COVID now, while hospitals (in the US) are still no where near capacity, get treatment, recover and be immune?

14% of recovered cases in one area (South Korea, IIRC) have become infected again, and one analysis showed that re-infection may be worse than the first time.
Sorry, I don’t have any citation for this, because it’s been days since I read it.

It would be pretty selfish because you'd become a potential source for other people to get infected

I think it's smarter to try to get infected as late as possible. Chances are treatments are better.

I think panic, chaos and social disruption are a more imminent threat than the virus itself at this point. As such I've stocked up on basic household food and supplies so that I don't have to go out into that chaos if it hits. The last thing I want is to be stuck in a huge queue at a petrol (gas) station, or getting punched out over the last turnip at the supermarket. Being prepared means I am one less person contributing to that chaos, one less person driving like a maniac on the roads desperately looking for toilet paper.

I picked up some extra, long-term food from CostCo. Stuff that won't go bad within a few months. Pasta, rice, almonds, some canned goods. Stuff that we'll eat off of for the next few months, regardless of what happens with COVID-19.

I see lots of advice about stocking up on basic supplies and being ready to stay home/indoors for a few weeks up to a couple of months. It sounds like great advice and my family is already building our stores up some from the typical stock.
Does anyone have any advice though for those of us that have to leave the house? My job is literally travel. I don’t have much choice other than a leave of absence or exhausting sick leave etc. My biggest concern is bringing this thing home to my little one.

Right. And another concern I don't see addressed anywhere: what happens if one member of your family gets it? What preparation do you need to isolate/quarantine that person while still trying to take care of them?
Do you just settle for the fact you're all infected at that point?

Take what precautions you can in the hopes that you delay getting it until the other person is doing a bit better?

I was wondering about this too. Do you lock your wife in the guest room with a multi-stage plastic tarp to deliver food?

Do it know. She may already be sick. Don't wait for the symptoms.

“Hey honey, come with me...”

If we get to the point that the government recommends self-quarantine, your job will probably be put on pause.

I booked a trip to Orlando. The wait time for Hagrid's Motorbike ride is under 2 hours!

Bought some extra food; planning on buying some extra dayquil type medication. Fervently hoping that maybe I can donate some of it if things blow over. Maybe getting some extra soap, and especially TP. I'll be the king of the neighborhood if I'm the last one with real TP!

> I'll be the king of the neighborhood if I'm the last one with real TP!
Consider getting a portable bidet as an alternative. All you need is water.

I already have - I manufacture an open source hardware product in Shenzhen and ship the results worldwide using a fulfillment service there.
We shut down as usual for CNY and that shutdown extended longer until the beginning of this week, from my point of view the disruptions are over and my backlog has shipped - though I know that things in Shenzhen are not back to normal (and I'm putting off a manufacturing trip until they are).

It might sound trite — and maybe different info than you’re looking for — but I’ve been doing my best to get a good night’s sleep. And to continue to meditate daily. And to eat healthy. Reducing stress is — so I hear — good for the immune system.

Looking at the overflowing hospitals in Wuhan, I'm preparing for the possibility of being mildly sick at home and not being able to get a bed in the hospital. The best hope is then that somehow we reduce chance of cross-infection inside the family. For that I got:
- Oxygen/HR meter ($15 @ Amazon) to monitor when oxygenation drops real low so that we know we have to get to ER and staying at home is suicidal.
- Some medical gloves, some masks (not hoarding - I think we have ~50 cheap masks from the time Bay Area was full of smoke).
- A ton of tissues and toilet paper.
- UV lamps to disinfect rooms.
- Basic staple foods to last for quite a while.
It's quite likely I won't be able to prevent cross-infection, but at least I've tried.

I was reading this comment while this was on my screen https://youtu.be/XSS_sOLoB68?t=1795

Since I'm on home dialysis, I'll be pretty screwed if this goes on too long. I usually get medical supplies once a month and have probably an extra 2 weeks of backup supplies. Medications I can usually get 3 months at a time so I have plenty.
In terms of food and home essentials, we tend to shop in bulk normally so just need to make sure we are stocked up.

On the "don't stockpile" pleas:
I think it is fine to stockpile before the crisis hits. We are in the stage where that information will affect investment, how manufactures allocate resources, etc. Basically they will respond with an early stockpile signal by producing more. So when the crisis hits, the supply will be greater.
EG - I think we are still in a stage in US where stockpiling is adding more to the production signal than it is actively causing scarcity.
Stockpiling for the purposes of reselling when the demand spikes doesn't strike me as evil either... It seems like a reasonable market solution for distributing items.

at my local sprouts grocery store they were out of some of the bulk section bins: 2 or 3 of them. But, the other 17 bins were still mostly full. So, I don't think the full panic has set in yet.

I’ve spent about $300 to prepare, that includes paying a lazy fee ordering some stuff off Amazon, and optimizing for things I’ll eat in April if this all blows over.
Food and water: Added 25 gallons to my normal water delivery
Protein bars, jerky, dehydrated cheese
Peanuts, trail mix, peanut butter
Big sack of rice (save for earthquake kit after April, don’t usually eat rice)
Canned chili, canned stew, canned beans (Carry over to earthquake kit)
Canned tuna
All of this (sans water) is boxed and in a closet.
Supplies:
Already have plenty of n95s
9x12 plastic tarp
Duct tape (specific for this use, not relying on the roll in the drawer)
Bleach
Extra soap and toilet paper
Big thing of hand sanitizer (noticed a lot of out of stock on Amazon)
I already have a significant medical kit.
I’m mostly optimizing for people panicking and it becoming hard to get supplies for a week or two.

Why the tarp and duct tape?

If for some aggressive reason we have to seal windows, or seal off a room. It’s also just a nice general purpose thing to have.

You need to add Toilet paper to that list.

It’s on that list :)

When I saw the last thread about people's guesses about where this is going (the one about the Tokyo Olympics possible cancellation: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22420148), I thought the next one should be:
Ask HN: Do you have COVID-19?
This is much better, less alarmist, but I think we'll need the one above sooner or later. BTW, I'm in the camp thinking it will be inevitable, and last week we stockpiled about 1 month worth of food and supplies. If/when it hits our area, we can just stay home.

Things are simpler for me than for many, since I am retired.
- Planning purchases for hunkering down for a few weeks: Food, water, batteries, water purifier, battery-powered radio, hand-crank power generator for radio, etc.
- Sold 50% of my stock holdings.
- Putting a large amount cash in my checking account.
- Getting a smaller amount of cash (paper) to have at home.

That plan seems predicated on the assumption that COVID-19 will burn itself out and disappear in a matter of months. But there's no current evidence to suggest that will be the case, and if we look to similar diseases, they have been around for tens of years.
Even if it depresses in the summer months, it will return in full force next winter (see e.g. flu, common colds, etc).
Best case scenario a working vaccine is invented. But nobody currently has a proven working one (regardless of a few headlines to the contrary) and even if they did that would be 18 months minimum before mass manufacturing could begin.
What I am saying is "bomb shelter"-style hunkering down will likely be ineffective if there's a mass spread in your country because the disease would out-live whatever supplies you have.

I am assuming that in the next few weeks I will need to be isolated for 3-4 weeks. I am assuming that electricity is mostly on, and water to my home is mostly available, (although possibly tainted -- preparing for that).
After that, who knows. Hopefully there will be a vaccine.

Considering the amount of time to develop and produce a vaccine for widespread distribution, I don't expect anything in place until next flu season if not the year after.

If there is an effective vaccine I'm expecting a lot of people to be drafted to create facilities to make it in quantity. (Assuming it can't be made in the same process that the current flu shot is made). If society puts its mind to it building this infrastructure can be done very fast - it won't be the most cost effective build in ordinary times, but it will get the job done.

I don't know what country you are from, but mine (USA) has lost its ability to set its mind to anything. It can't even be said to have a rational mind any longer.

Don't be so pessimistic. I'm from the USA: we might be divided (and people like you are pushing the divide!), but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. There just isn't a collective goal pushing us all in one direction.
Overall I think it is a good thing. Only by many diverse opinions and goals from many different people can we try everything and see what really works out.

> but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to.
Please provide examples.
- We used to be able to build Hoover Dam. Now it takes literally years to pass a bill to maintain our highways.
- Do I need to remind you what a joke Infrastructure Week has become?
- How are those gun violence stats? Number 1 in the world at something, at least.
- The fastest-growing approach to paying for medical bills, in this country, is a GoFundMe campaign.
- The world financial system was nearly destroyed by inadequately regulated US "finanice industry innovation" in 2008. As Paul Volcker said the following year: “the ATM has been the only useful innovation in banking for the past 20 years”.
- Facebook and Google -- the most successful US companies in history, I think, have destroyed privacy, and are now bringing down democracy. Oh, right, I forgot, Facebook is connecting people. Point for you.
Seriously. What has this country done recently that proves we can do anything productive any longer?

Take a look at are highways. Despite constant complaints about them being in trouble, we build a lot of them including many bridges. Take a look at your city there is someplace in the metro area they are building something big.
Fasting growing doesn't mean much. Most people have insurance which covers everything. Yes there are too many people on the edges who don't have it, but most people do and don't need gofundme (I suspect some of them have a gofundme anyway as a way to raise money because they can)
Sure we don't do massive society wide projects, but that is because we don't need them. That doesn't mean we can't.

Vaccines are biological in nature. It's very possible that time will be a much more meaningful factor than people or equipment in producing enough of a vaccine to cover sufficiently many people so "massively parallelizing" the process may not help with the lead time to vaccine availability, only with quantity when it does become available (assuming an effective vaccine is found).
Having said that, I would expect that in most Western countries, sufficient quantities to cover the most vulnerable people (older people and those with existing heart or respiratory conditions - ie largely the same people selected for annual flu vaccines in many places) will be available by next (Northern hemisphere) winter.

Why would the water be tainted?

I think infrastructure, in general, is at some risk. The people who maintain infrastructure are going to be as motivated to stay home as everyone else.

If there's one thing public health authorities are going make sure stays on (fails last), it's water.

If water treatment plant can't operate because the workers are sick...I would imagine the first step would be similar to a flooded treatment station -- a boil water condition. Provided you have gas/electric to do that.
We can't speculate at this point what kind/likelihood of a civil emergency we might face with this or any other disaster that hasn't happened yet.
However, having been through Sandy where we had 16 consecutive days of no power or heat and a snowstorm with a foot of snow and fouled treatment facilities with boil alerts, here's my recommendations:
1) Hold 10x24x16oz bottles of water and use them in FIFO. When you finish one flat, you buy a new one and put it on the bottom of the stack. It's not that crazy to hold 2 weeks of drinking water in your pantry/garage. 2) In many places around the world, the sink water isn't treated at all. Have some sterilizer solution available for washing dishes but don't risk drinking water that isn't treated 3) peanut butter has a really long shelf life, easy to store, is really cheap, and if you don't have nut allergies, not a bad source of nutrition. 4) figure out the electrical needs of critical devices - phones/tablets CPAPs, air machines, etc. GoalZero is a pretty user friendly brand of solar / battery combos. 5) get a 100W 12V adaptor for your car. If you need to recharge something that isn't USB, you can use your car as a simple generator. 6) be prepared to live without heat or A/C but if you do have power, make sure your filters are clean. Ask your hvac guy to recommend the max level of HEPA your HVAC can tolerate. 7) have squirt bottles with disinfectant in every room with a sink.. not just normal countertop cleaning stuff. Bleach IIRC needs 7 minutes to achieve a maximum log reduction of bacteria / viruses so keep in mind when you're cleaning, its not possible to kill everything, you're reducing the load of bad things over a period of time.

"It's not that crazy to hold 2 weeks of drinking water in your pantry/garage."
The recommendations I've seen have been for 1 gallon per person per day.
That's 14 gallons for just one person for 2 weeks. 56 gallons for a family of 4.
Not that crazy, I guess, but that's still a lot of water.

I have heard people are catching it multiple times because their natural antibody production stops relatively quickly.
If that's the case I wonder how a vaccine would work. Weekly shots for everyone until it's gone? That would be hard to manage.

The mind boggles at how people can characterise preparation of a month’s worth of food, water and other essentials as “bomb shelter”-style hunkering down.
The CDC, amongst other US and foreign government agencies, recommend it. When the CDC speaks, I listen.

Where did the CDC recommend a months worth of food and water for COVID-19 specifically?

https://ready.gov/pandemic

I read two weeks.

Nope. This is general advice about “a pandemic” and has nothing to do with COVID.

Great guys, you stay here and argue about whether two weeks of food and water or four constitutes a crazy bunker mentality. All the more time for the rest of us to stock up for our kids.

Indeed. A month is more in the range of a fallout shelter.

> - Putting a large amount cash in my checking account.
Shouldn't you be doing the opposite? Banks go down pretty quickly when society panics.

I'm moving money into checking from investments.

Why would you sell 50% of your stock?

You mean, why that much, or why not all of it? I was tempted to sell all of it, but decided to wait a while.
I sold because I think the risk of further, large declines is greater than the likelihood of a continuing increase.
(In 2008, as that crisis was developing, I also sold everything, and bought back once things returned to a new normal.)

I mean why exit 50% of your position rather than ride it out? I figured you might find cash more prudent.

About 1/3 of my estate is in the stock market. I sold 1/2 of that 1/3. I'm prepared to sell the rest. I may sell the remaining 1/2 in the coming days. Cash is more prudent in an emergency, and I'm prepared for that too.
I have the usual spectrum, ranging from more money in safer, long-term investments, to smaller amounts that are liquid. All I've done is to move things moderately toward the more-liquid end of the spectrum.

If it's in your checking account it isn't cash.

I found this post useful "So you think you’re about to be in a pandemic?" : https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be...

Wow, only 0.9% of deaths occurred among those without comorbidities? That sounds very low, I'm surprised!

That's still 5 to 10 times worse than the flu.

I've been going to the airport shaking hands with everyone arriving from China and Italy. That way I'll get infected before everyone else and get first pick on hospital beds.

And once you get to the hospital bed there will be no effective treatment for you.
And you will be quarantined in the hospital section with all the rest of the coronavirus patients, reinforcing your infection.

I'll take those odds.

I recently returned from Asia and completed a 14-day self quarantine. I was there most of Jan and Feb, when the virus news was emerging.
The area I was in became highly xenophobic. It was disturbing to watch.
90% of prevention is just boosting the immune system, washing hands, and not touching your face.
Carry hand cleanser everywhere and use it frequently.
When I felt a scratch in my throat I'd stop by a 7 Eleven, buy a $1 bottle of gin, and gargle.
I contemplated actually consuming the gin. But that would take a toll on the immune system :-)

"When I felt a scratch in my throat I'd stop by a 7 Eleven, buy a $1 bottle of gin, and gargle."
Wait. What? I don't think that's actually effective at ridding you of a viral infection.

Right. Doesn't help an infection. Probably makes it worse.
But I suspect there's a window of about 30 minutes where the efficacy of alcohol on the hands has a similar effect on the throat.
Make the host as inhospitable as possible and maybe it'll prevent an infection.

An itching throat is a symptom that comes from already being infected. It's not a sign that you're about to get infected.
So trying to prevent an infection when you're already infected doesn't make any sense.
Besides, there's no evidence that gargling with alcohol will prevent an infection either.

just typed a novel then decided against it. everyone needs to make their own decisions about their preparedness. For me, I’m preparing for (not the worst, but bad enough to keep me at home for several weeks). Hoping for the best.
-Stocked up on food/water -Stocked up my medicine cabinet -Reduced my exposure to stocks by 75% -Turned off all automated investments -Consuming zerohedge via RSS for news ahead of the normal cycle -not trusting a word of any government mouthpiece

I work in manufacturing sector and this can become a real serious issue for everyone. So many things are made in China that we might see some supply issues. This will have an affect on literally everything we buy in the US. We might see some interesting price spikes.
I don't even know what my company will do if we simply cannot fill our orders.
I am preparing to refinance my house though, the virus is really shaking up the stock market and pushing the mortgage rates down.

Are you seeing issues with manufacturing currently?

It has not affected my company directly yet, but people are quite uneasy.

By listening to "It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)" by R.E.M.
Seriously, stressing out about this is going to create more problems than the virus itself. Humans love starting panic parades anytime something scary happens. Best thing to do is not worry about it.

> Seriously, stressing out about this is going to create more problems than the virus itself. Humans love starting panic parades anytime something scary happens. Best thing to do is not worry about it.
This is absolutely, uncategorically, false.

... because... ?

Because some things are worth worrying about, and that anxiety is an impetus to take actions which may improve the situation for you and the people around you.

Because it has infected tens (probably hundreds) of thousands of people around the world, completely overwhelmed hospital systems, and there's very little reason to expect it will different where you are.

Fair enough.
Is it killing a significant amount of non-immunocompromised people? I haven't devoted a lot of attention to COVID-19, but would assume it doesn't have a high casualty rate among healthy people who practice the basics (rest and hydration)?
I guess one way to look at it is that it's a model for handling a much deadlier bug. And the world is doing a mediocre job at it.

A significant percentage of (probably 2 - 20%) of the cases require hospitalization.
As a point of reference, there are typically about 1000 free hospital beds[1] in the state of Kansas, for a population of 2.9M.
http://www.kdheks.gov/cphp/download/KS_PF_Plan.pdf page 22

These rates are taking the number of confirmed cases and dividing by the number of hospitalizations. The problem is that minor cases usually don’t get detected so they don’t get included in the denominator. A single confirmed case might correspond to a thousand infections. It’s too early to know.

Thanks for the elaborations! Very informative.

RE: It's The End Of The World As We Know It, at the end of the song at about 3:57, you can hear a voice in the background say what sounds like "Party". I've never been able to find an explanation for how that got into the song or why it is there.

Fascinating. Never noticed that until now

I already maintain a 90+ day supply of food and medications and most consumables/supplies in my homes, as a matter of course. I took the lessons of the Battle of Berlin to heart. I also have a half dozen P99/P100 masks already, for the same reason.
The only specific measure I am taking is stocking up on drinking water, my supplies of which fluctuate between 15 and 30 days as I consume it and periodically reorder. I am bumping that to 60 on the off chance that there is a major pandemic.
I am one of the high-mortality-risk groups for any respiratory ailment (which is why I religiously get flu shots each year), so it’s entirely possible I will just stay home for a few weeks/months while I wait for any potential outbreak to blow over.

This is useless if you live in the city. All your supplies will be taken away from you by force if enough people becomes desperate.

I think the logical conclusion of your argument is that people in cities should not undertake any preparedness measures. I do not subscribe to that belief, and think it is an abdication of responsibility. It’s much more likely that I will need water/food due to supply interruptions than I will need water/food due to supply interruptions and also be subject to marauding gangs of thieves.
Also, where I live in the winter, it is normal to have a non-trivial amount of weapons in one’s own home, and something like 50% of homes do, despite being a reasonably big city by local standards.
I envision places like that to remain a lot calmer and more civilized longer than most other urban centers, where the means to keep order is a lot more centralized, and probably the first to abandon their posts in times of extreme crisis such as you allude to.

The best way to prepare for COVID-19 is to already be prepared for a wide variety of civic disruptions.
Have enough food and water on hand to shelter in place for up to 2 weeks. Never let your gasoline dip below a quarter tank. Have some paperback books and candles on hand. Have some duct tape and plastic drop cloths. Keep some camping gear. Practice not panicking. Keep a bottle of plain, unscented bleach on hand, and practice diluting it to 10% of the bottle concentration.
If you don't already have supplies specific to COVID-19, the desperate and the hoarders have probably already snapped up what you might want, and the opportunists reselling it at a 400% markup.

I put together this doc (https://awesome-covid-19.github.io/) in response to 2mo of obsessing over the emerging virus and needing to share what I knew in the form of actionable items for the average person (re all my friends and coworkers freaking out on monday).
Its intended to be a kind of emotional preparation as much as physical, and a lot of it is just priming and practicing awareness.
If you see anything thats missing, needs updating/correction,etc please open a PR!

Sign up for the American Red Cross, disaster response. ARC is as organized as a volunteer-driven humanitarian organization can be. Once your family is secure, you can help others. Do not expect government to take care of basic needs. Federal, state, and municipal government can only do so much.
Don't bother responding to me with your opinion about misappropriation of funds. I spent a month volunteering in Louisiana after Katrina, taking days off without pay. Volunteers are always in short supply. The ARC is a vital institution.

I was thinking about this thread and came up with a potential useful suggestion.
We use our phones quite a bit. In hospitals, they are considered pretty dirty because the pick up a lot of germs.
We do not always have the opportunity to wash hands and their is a good chance we transfer germs to our phones.
I thought it might make sense to wipe the phone down at the end of the day with a chlorox wipe or rubbing alcohol. Then immediately wash your hands.
Side note, I tend not to handle those wipes directly as the chemicals are not great for your skin.

Not at all. I think the media is overestimating the effects of this virus. The world will realise that soon and everyone will calm down. I can see this effect right now in Italy. I in one of the affected regions and while a few people have been queueing to empty shelves at the supermarket, I'll go tomorrow for a normal weekly grocery shopping. Supermarkets are fully stocked again and everyone is doing well. The main issue is in people's mind, at least right now.

Famous last words.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_distortion Psychosis. Anyone believes what they want in the end. This was just my opinion.

- similar to preparing for an earthquake (in SF Bay Area): food, water, propane, gas cooker, first-aid.
- dozens of N95 respirators, which may or may not help...
- lots of mini hand sanitizers carried in cars, backpacks, jackets.
- watching for local news.
- avoid shopping in stores, started using Amazon fresh.
- during weekends, take kids to outdoor state parks/recreation areas instead of museums, zoo, malls where have lots of people.
- technically as software engineers both my wife and I can work from home, but we are still going to the office.

I'm chilling. I have doctor's orders to not lift or bend until April... whereupon I travel through multiple international airports to visit my ailing grandparents. I'm not expecting World War Z zombie worm-hordes, but maybe I should have my care taker grab an extra box of rice the next time they go shopping for me.

Just stocked up on more food to last a month. Additional items that might be hard to find if mass buyouts ensue at stores like toiler paper, kitchen towels, cleaning supplies, anti-bacterial wipes.
I always make sure I have at least 3/4ths of a tank of gas in my car.
Stuff like a decent first-aid kit plus some batteries.
For entertainment, making sure I have enough movies, ebooks, and music downloaded in-case the internet goes down but electricity is up.
I'm only envisioning that the local government might declare a state of emergency which means working from home, closing schools, possibly public transit, and having the local stores completely sold out of necessities.
No water as I rely on tap water.
I'm working under the assumption that if things get bad under "lock-down," it'll only last three weeks. I live in a small apartment and I'm unable to prepare for any prolonged period of time (3+ months).
If society were to collapsed I am not prepared at all.

Tokyo local government has a good english guide, tho it's meant for earthquakes mostly the preparation list is really good
https://www.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/english/guide/bosai/index.html

I have a couple weeks of food and water, which I bought slowly one day at a time so the store had plenty of time to restock, and they did.
I have a few N95 masks. These I got late at a painting supply place. I have a great deal of surgical masks and disposable gloves, which I bought years ago.
On order is a UV disinfecting chamber to enable mask reuse.
I'm not getting full body suits or protecting against long term electricity loss as that's certainly possible but if it comes to that might as well just die really.
I have a lot of guns and ammo to protect against supply attacks, but didn't have to buy more of that, that is something I already had anyway.
I completely cashed out of the stock market last week. Will result in a very large tax bill for the non-401k part. Was hoping to cash that stuff in during retirement instead.
I've stopped eating in restaurants and only go to the store during hours when few people are there.

I joke with coworkers that I want to get it on my own terms. Since the death rate is relatively low, I'd rather get it first when the medical infrastructure is not overwhelmed and that I'm 100% healthy. I can even scheduled ahead and finish some projects to work around the virus.

Would you do it though?

Just until it starts mutating just like the common cold...

Not a damned thing. I'm actually traveling outside the country (USA) in two days.

Wouldn't it be prudent to try and get the virus as soon as possible?
Apparently, it's not that dangerous of a disease assuming you have medical care available.
So, now is the time to get it... when you have the entire intensive care unit st your disposal. If you hide out in your bunker, wear your mask, and follow the CDC's advice, you'll probably not get it for a few months. But when you do, instead of having a nice empty intensive care unit at your disposal, you'll be laying in a hospital corridor, unattended, surrounded by body bags and moaning patients.
So, my preparation is to book a trip to Wuhan with a layover in Italy. Tickets are super cheap.

wow dude...I had exactly the same line of thought

Apparently even though it's unlikely to kill you, it's still likely to leave you with long lasting damage, so no, I think I'd rather try as hard as possible to avoid catching it in the first place.

Yeah heart damage. No thanks.

Do you have anything to back that up? According to a study published last week:
>There were a few interstitial mononuclear inflammatory infiltrates, but no other substantial damage in the heart tissue
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2...

No one is certain you can't get it twice.

If your immune system was able to beat it once, it is primed to quickly take it out the second time (probably before you even have symptoms.)
This is the entire premise behind vaccinations.
Regrettably, some viruses-- such as flu -- come in several different strains during a season; an immunity to one may not result in an immunity to another (but, an immunity to any strain of influenza seems to limit the severity of infection with other strains.) And some illnesses -- such a the common-cold -- are caused by several totally different viruses; an immunity to one doesn't make you immune to the 200+ other types of viruses that give you "the cold."
But, I've seen nothing to date indicating there are numerous COVID-19 strain floating around. That would be unusual.

Ah, makes sense.

> If your immune system was able to beat it once, it is primed to quickly take it out the second time (probably before you even have symptoms.)
This isn't always the case, chickenpox can lie dormant for most of your life and reactivate as a far worse shingles. There are some sources claiming reinfection is possible and that it's worse than the initial infection for coronavirus, I'd take that with a large dose of salt for now, but it's not safe to assume you'll be immune once you beat it, even if it doesn't cause long term damage.

Not necessarily. There is going to be some education involving how to optimally treat it, and/or vaccines (in the longer run).

I had to go to the ER for my son and it was already full of sick people for flu season. So no, you don't probably wouldn't get the care all to yourself. There were also way more masks in use than the last time I had to go.

You sure about that?
I bet if you showed up and tested positive for COVID-19 you'd be given an entire floor to yourself. Definitely your own room.
At least for now...

Yes you are right about that. I'm just saying the resources aren't necessarily going to drop everything they are doing because of corona virus. They still have to triage the ER. Flu is very serious for youth and elderly and ERs are quite full.

Who knows. Viruses that become widespread tend to mutate. Most often they mutate to become less deadly - a virus that doesn't kill the host has a better chance of spreading. However the 1918 Spanish flu that was so deadly mutated from a less deadly version in spring to the more deadly version in fall so nothing is guaranteed.
Make your bets... If you think this will get worse get it now and live with lifelong heart problems. If you think this will get better wait as long as you can in hopes you get the less deadly version.
I'm personally holding out for a breakthrough in vaccines that mean I don't get it at all. Time will tell if I'm right. Time will also kill me - the only question is when.

>If you think this will get worse get it now and live with lifelong heart problems.
Do you have any proof that coronavirus causes lifelong heart problems? TMK this has not been established.

No, only rumors of it.

On the other hand, if you delay contracting the virus for as long as possible, you leave more time for more effective treatments to be made available.

You also leave more time for ICUs to be overrun and not being able to take you.

You need to delay the infection beyond the peak.

You won't build up immunity and could easily be re-infected. Might even be a bigger chance because your immune system will still be weak.

Keep the gas tank full all the time. Escape the city before the lockdown - go to your summerhouse or your parents.
Don't stay in the city. Break the lockdown if necessary. Food shortages and violence will come quickly. There is always oversupply of food in farmlands and shortages in cities.
Keep some food supplies at hand (beans, rice, meat in the freezer). And some gold in small bars.
Few weeks ago, before it all started I have purchased 50 ordinary masks, some surgical disinfector and also two military grade masks with biological weapon filters.
But most important - keep up good spirits and wash your hands. My Mom prays.

I'm not.
If I get it, I get it. I'll probably be fine. I'm a healthy twenty-something. If it hits hard, I'll wear my lightly used N95 respirator I use for housework, and gloves everywhere I go, hand sanitizer if I don't, limit my travel and exposure to the public.
If it gets epidemically bad, I'll hide in my basement with my ham radios and 2mo of food stores for my wife and cats until it all blows over.
I have been considering withdrawing a large amount of cash, just in case.

If you're 20 something, you have around 60 years of life left meaning that 2 months is about .3% of your remaining life. The probability, likewise, of dying of coronavirus if you get coronavirus is on the order of .1%, it seems. Spending 2 months of your life trying to not get the coronavirus seems like throwing the baby out with the bath water, to me.

My wife cancelled a holiday in the Far East. The airline seemed to be overwhelmed by people doing the same thing, so probably the time to short airline stocks.

The time to short airline stocks was 2 weeks ago.

There is a place for shorts i.e. as price discovery mechanism, and in many cases, as a price correction mechanism to reveal fundamental weaknesses in a company with overpriced stock.
Shorting stocks to take advantage of a disaster strikes me as one of the most unethical, immoral things one can do. People still do it, but it doesn't make it right.
(apologies for the moralizing -- my sentiments are not directed at OP who was merely musing and shooting the breeze -- but at amoral Wall Street types).

I mean, it's an airline. While the CEO might lose his bonus, it's unlikely for a bit of short selling to drive the airline out of business (and so for people to lose their jobs), so I don't think this is really a moral issue. Also, this is exactly a price discovery mechanism - the airline isn't going to be as profitable so it isn't as valuable!

You could be right, but I think the ethics on it are less neutral than that. (it's hard to say what "a bit" of short selling is -- there are feedback loops in the stock market)
Airlines provide fast connectivity between cities for people and goods, which is valuable in a disaster situation, and by shorting a stock to make a few bucks, you'd be creating unfavorable transportation economics in a disaster situation and possibly worsening supply chain constrictions. A short seller would be profiting off the hardship of others.

We bought a bunch of extra food, food that we'll eat anyways. We don't want to have to deal with empty shelves later on because people are panicking.

My last order of assembled PCB's has been on hold since late December. I don't even know of an affordable alternative that isn't also in China.

While not a source for 'assembled', https://oshpark.com/ claims to manufacture just the PCB's in the USA for $5/sq inch in three board units.

Sleep more! There was some study that found that reducing your sleep from 9 hours to 5.5 hours reduces your immune system by 1/2. I don’t have a citation handy but whenever I got sick in college, it was usually during final exam weeks when I had to pull late nighters. Sleeping is the single best thing you can do for your immune system and your immune system is your last line of defense.

I purchased 4200 cans of an assortment of low sodium soup and vegetables, at a discounted lot rate (just under 90¢/ea). They range from 220 to 300 cal per can (so about 3-4 cans per day per person).
If this all blows over, since these expire in about 20 months, I’ll just donate them to a dog shelter in the nearby ghetto. The dogs love that stuff.

My preparation so far is the same as earthquake preparation - to be sure that I have a supply of food and water for a few days. It seems like a pretty reasonable generic preparation for disaster. I am interested in doing more, but it isn't really clear to me what else would be useful.

A few weeks of super boring food, in case of supply chain disruptions and the inevitable panic and wholesale stripping of food by panicky people.
Water and power will be fine, a gaggle of soccer mom's buying out the whole supermarket is more likely depending on how the media portrays the problem.

Not preparing at all.
The virus is expanding just because of bad common sense from people who ignore the basic ABC of infections: stay at home if you're ill, do avoid meeting as much people as possible, but this seems to be hard to be understood by many

You just need to look at China for its worse. Prob no worse than what’s happening there. Prepare accordingly, don’t hoard 4 months worth of stuff, if things does get that worse you have bigger things to worry about

What can be bigger than that?
I have seen interview with a person in Wuhan and his biggest problem is running out of food.

Other people coming to take your food. If there are major food shortages and you have a big stockpile, you better hope you have a way to keep yourself secure.

vs not having a stockpile and hoping that if you just explain to people that you have no food they will stay out?

Are things that bad? I'm not sure if it's impossible to buy food, it's just people try not to leave their homes.

I always tend to have enough food at home that would last me two weeks easily. I would fill my bathtub in case things start to get more serious. That should be enough drinking water for some time.

- Use the proper type of mask. Wear the mask correctly. Some masks are effective only for a limited amount of time.
- Cover your eyes.
- Wash your hands.
- Do not touch the area around your eyes, nose or mouth without washing your hands first.

The usual. Eat well, exercise, stay healthy, best practice hygeine.

going to a tech conference!....

Extra water, food, toiletries, etc.
If nothing happens, I just won't have to shop as much.
If something does happen, I can survive a few months without having to go outside.

Personally, i'm not taking it seriously at all. I'm in my 20s. If I get it I'll take some sinus medication and ibuprofen.

Yes. Just bought quite a bit of canned food and bottled water today. May pick up a solar-based generator (100-200W).

I’m stocking up on soylent type powder. That plus water can probably keep me alive for a fair amount of time

I am buying all the twinkies i can

Today I just bought 2 weeks stock of food for me and my mom. We don’t eat much. (NYC here)

100 gal of water and growing, 1,000 rounds of JHP, rice and red lentils. Bring it.

JHP?

Jacketed Hollow Point bullets
Essentially they create a shockwave in a soft target, causing a lot more damage than a Full Metal Jacket round (FMJ).

I thought cops lobbied for restrictions on this ammo

They did.

Corona can be spread by fecal contact so refrain from a2m, o-after-a, etc.

I'll admit I bought a few extra groceries on my last trip to the store.

Buying stock while the market is low.

I'm already a little bit of a prepper, so really just "more of the same" here. Since there's not really a cure/vaccine for the specific disease yet, there's not much to do on the medical front specifically.
That said, being ill with covid19 sounds like it would be similar to the flu for many people, so I'll stock up on OTC medicines that provide some symptom relief / make it possible to sleep. Mucinex, Nyquil, things of that nature.
Beyond that... I'll add to my stock of non-perishable foods: rice, beans, beef jerky, trail mix, and such-like. I plan to stock up on some bottled water as well, but I don't focus so much on water since A. it's heavy/bulky and hard to store and B. I live near many natural freshwater streams/creeks/lakes/rivers/etc. and I would rather focus on a "water purification capability" than on just stocking large amounts of water. To that end, I already keep some water purification supplies. But the thing I'm thinking about now, is building a distilling outfit. That way, as long as I have water (fresh or salt) available, and fire making supplies and firewood, I can make relatively clean water.
I also plan to add a little more to my stockpile of candles, lamp oil, batteries, etc. And I'll probably use this as an excuse to add to my (small) stash of 9mm ammo as well.

Ammo

Costco.

I found this Atlantic Monthly article written by a public health expert to be helpful: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...

Extra Potatoes, milk and oil, boyo.. Thats about it.

This is very likely to overwhelm not just medical infrastructure, but shut down supply chains for basic necessities for months. If the pandemic hits, most businesses will shutter, just like in China. It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum. There's just no excuse not to now if you make a tech salary - a couple hundred dollars and you have an emergency stash which is good for years.
This isn't just about personal protection - the whole community and nation can expect better outcomes of we stagger preparations, lessening the chance and impact of everyone running to the store at the same time. There is no question now that this is an unprecedented event, now is the time to prepare to mitigate risk.

You could also donate these types of items after a vaccine is developed.

I find this to be pretty alarmist.
"If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit.
The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1].
The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread).
The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually in the US [2], and as much as I love prepping, this just does not fit the bill for the amount of FUD it has generated.
edit: comments are making me re-think my position. COVID is far worse mortality rate wise in 65+ patients vs flu.
1 - https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-tries-to-calm-ta...
2 - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

How is a virus, more contagious and more lethal than flu/MERS/SARS, a smaller problem?

> more lethal than flu/MERS/SARS
WHO reports a 34% fatality rate for MERS, while at present it is around 2.4% for COVID-19 [2]. So it would be helpful if you provide sources when throwing down comments like this. I'll admit it's more contagious, as they state below, but again, most US cases are asymptomatic.
1 - https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/
2 - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...

The mortality rate is likely to increase of health services get overwhelmed.
This happened in China, hopefully current measures can prevent breakout infections.
I worry what will happen if the outbreak reaches densely populated areas in India.

This is spot on. As long as ICU capacity is not overwhelmed this can be dealt with.

Speaking of overwhelmed health systems, here's a comment from Dr. Bruce Aylward (renowned expert who led the team of experts on the ground in China)[1][2]:
"The bottom line is this virus kills people... it kills our elderly and vulnerable... but this is not always the case - young people do die of this disease even in industrialized countries.
People are looking at this saying that but in China they don't have this, they don't have that, etc. If I had COVID-19, I'd want to be treated in China.
We'd go into these hospitals, how many ventilators do you have? 50-60. A scale we aren't used to seeing. How many ECMO systems do you have? 5. We don't have that in Europe.
When we look at how dangerous this disease is, we have to be careful looking at the China data. China know how to keep people alive from COVID - they are super committed to it and they are making a massive investment in it. That is not going to be the case everywhere in the world....
It is a serious disease and I worry that people are going to look at the China numbers and get a false sense of security."
[1] - https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9mxwn/for_tho...
[2] - https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM?t=3058

The 2003 SARS outbreak resulted in under 8500 confirmed cases and the 2012 MERS outbreak in around 2500. Confirmed COVID-19 cases are currently over 80000. Only considering fatality rate paints a flawed picture.

> it would be helpful if you provide sources
Actually, to be honest, it would be helpful if everyone refrained from cherry picking information to support their current emotional state.
Please, please, please, let's rely on experts who specialize infectious diseases to do the communicating and go back to our code.

>>> Please, please, please, let's rely on experts who specialize infectious diseases to do the communicating and go back to our code.
Thank you.

The annual flu was worse in terms of numbers, but this illness is still early and was showing a much higher mortality rate, in proportional terms.
Of course, from what I can tell, growth in mortality has been shrinking in percentage terms. [1]
But if judging based on the early stats, it was literally hundreds of times more deadly than a common flu. Approximately to 4% of people in their 60s who contracted it died. And 15% of those in their 80s who contracted it were killed. The annual flu is not nearly that bad.
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

I think the Flu mortality rate is 0.1% and Coronavirus is 2%?
That seems pretty dramatic, the earlier article about the disease in China stated that some percentage of people that get infected require ICU attention to oxygenate their blood or they die (and it doesn't seem like it's limited only to old or at risk people).
That seems a lot worse than the seasonal flu?
With SARS and MERS we got lucky because they didn't end up spreading that widely even though the mortality rate was higher. I'm not convinced that's evidence that this won't be a problem.

The higher mortality rate of SARS and MERS - counterintuitively - helped to contain it, as well as the fact that it was only spread by people showing symptoms.

Not implying anything: But this tracks with my understanding of how USSR and USA wanted to select bacterial/virologic bioweapons [1]:
An agent that killed very quickly e.g. Ebola is actually not a very good bioweapon. You want something with a long incubation period that is infectious before people are symptomatic.
Things that incubate in short order + kill hosts quickly "burn the epidemic out" before it can spread.
Ideally it also can survive outside of a host for some period of time as well.
1 - Demon in the Freezer by Richard Preston

>most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms
Where did you hear this? Why would these people even be tested, much less diagnosed, if they are not showing symptoms?

See 1.
It's Because they were evacuated e.g. from Cruise ships with other symptomatic patients, and were quarantined + tested, it's a CDC standard protocol [2]. They even put one of them down the street from me as we speak [3]
1 - https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/15th-us-corona...
2 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/posttravel-eval...
3 - https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10751105-181/sonoma-count...

There have been reported problems with the CDC tests.

Those problems would cause false negatives, not false positives.

But that story (1) says they had sore throats. They do not consider a sore throat a symptom? So this is the new CDC? Ignorance is strength? War is peace?

That is naive. Yes the virus has hit some places and we know a little about it, but pandemic means something different. Look what is happening in China, this can happen in any open borders country. Cases keep growing in Europe. If the virus hits more strongly in some country due to higher vulnerability of the population, or if it mutates into something nastier, we can have big disruption of daily life for millions of people, supply chains may get broken, empty shelves, curfew, etc.
WHO tainted its image by being too slow/cautious to react.
The ilness may have great survival rate, but nobody knows what percentage of survivors will have nasty long-term health condition. The virus can smoke your heart, or other organs. It is new, Chinese are falling like flies, that's why alarm is in place.

>The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse
This is NOT TRUE. I urge you to stop relying on the news and look at the literature that is being published in real time. I don't have time for a full response but 15% of cases require ICU care to survive. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. and the virus spreads 2-5x (R0 estimates from 3 up to 8 depending on source) more readily than SARS or MERS or the 1918 Spanish flu.
Now is the time to be alarmed. The media is behind, for understandable reasons, do not rely on them when in 2020 you have access to the same sources they do. The literature being publishes is almost universally grave. At this point anyone minimizing ncov by comparing it to regular flu is being irresponsible.

”Now is the time to be alarmed.”
And this accomplishes what, exactly? Shortages of gloves and canned goods?
Being “alarmed” is not a positive choice, even if your worst-case projections of the future turn out to be true.

If people start trickling into stores to stock up now, as the Canadian government is urging it's citizens, there will be less of a rush later. Perhaps we can avoid the chaos of empty store shelves.

Your wording seems a bit off mark. The Minister of Health is recommending everyone to always have an emergency reserve in case of any unforseen event, from illness to power blackout.

I'd say the vast majority of people that I know don't have such a reserve, and are seriously considering it now.
If they all go and stock up, what with the JIT-style of many supermarkets, I wouldn't be surprised to encounter shortages.
Even just to avoid the inconvenience of that, stocking up now, while the majority of the population is not too concerned, seems prudent and even beneficial to everyone else

Oh hey guys, Comical Ali is back[1]!
In all seriousness, I'm truly baffled what motivates you to stand out so strongly in your anti-hysteria hysteria. I mean, I'm the anxious type who just like to prepare for stuff just in case, especially if the cost is low, but you appear to go actively out of your way to spend energy on countering any degree of concern, and it's frustratingly difficult to understand the underlying motivation.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf

What led you to believe I cited the news? I cite the WHO and CDC where I could. If I am interpreting that information incorrectly based on my previous experience in epidemiology, please educate me.
- SARS case fatality rate = 15% (WHO - 1)
- MERS case fatality rate = 34.4% (WHO - 2)
- COVID19 case fatality rate = 2.3% (WHO - 3^)
1- https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
2-https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/ MERS case fatality rate =
3 - https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
^ estimation efforts are ongoing and may change.

The numbers from China are totally innaccurate and underestimating the infection rate by at least an order of magnitude for a multitude of reasons. The WHO has been irresponsibly mirroring the Chinese numbers from the start and frankly cannot be trusted - the director of the WHO was accused by the NYT years ago of covering up 3 cholera outbreaks in his home country of Ethiopia.
China has been overwhelmed. They ran out of testing kits weeks ago. They have been turning people away from hospitals for months. Major infection areas have been under lockdown, where people are not allowed to leave their homes or drive, even for emergency trips to the hospital. Their official reported diagnosed cases are nowhere the true numbers. They've also punished doctors for reporting new cases. It's all a giant sham.
This pandemic is revealing just how incompetent global organizations and news media are.
Edit: I just read that the WHO also has some incentive to downplay the virus - $425 million in catastrophe bonds were issued that may default if the virus is officially labeled a pandemic...can't seem to find the actual default conditions but there's a clear conflict of interest here. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bon...

Regarding the bonds, that doesn’t seem true. The conditions for payout are:
“ On the face of it, the class B bond should have incurred losses during the 2018 ebola crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the recent coronavirus from Wuhan, China, as both have resulted in deaths north of 250 people, the primary condition for a payout.”
“ But an important secondary condition states that there must be at least 20 deaths in a second country for the bond to release any funds, a requirement that has not been met by the coronavirus or the ebola outbreak.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-bank-has-an-insu...

Iran is at 19, South Korea and Italy 13 and 12.

As of this hour, Iran's now at 26 deaths.

Curiously Iran's smoking rate is low - 1/3 of America's. I had thought that lung-compromised smokers were responsible for high mortality in some countries. Hm.

That could still be true. I imagine there are a huge number of variables that influence mortality rates, to the point where finding correlations is difficult.
If I understand correctly, even the effect of weather/heat on various strains of viruses is extremely difficult to predict because of how many other factors play a role (air-conditioning, for example).

You are citing case fatality rate for MERS and SARS, but not the flu (which is typically 0.1%), and yet in any given year the flu has killed many more people than MERS or SARS. Why? Because millions get the flu whereas MERS and SARS were contained.
Now consider that COVID-19 is much more contagious than the flu and it has a significantly higher case fatality rate than the flu.
Furthermore, people can and do protect themselves against the flu with a vaccine. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. And still further, no one is immune because the disease is new to humans.
So yes, while covid-19 has a 98% survival rate, a widespread outbreak could kill hundreds of thousands of people.

This was enlightening and has let me revise my original position. Thanks

Where can I find "the literature that is being published in real time"?

Nature and pubmed for starters. Search 2019 ncov. Most of the papers were originally being collected and circulated on 4chan - honestly, as vile as a place as it is, the threads have been 1-2 months ahead of media. More recently reddit.com/r/coronavirus has popped up which is sharing papers and there's a more official subreddit who's name escapes me.
This is an event which illuminates the folly of relying excessively on media and government. I think it's easy to forget that these organizations are managed and staffed by people just like you and me - worse in many cases, as the average person is not exactly sharing research papers with their grandma, so to speak.
Here's one of the conservative estimates for R0 straight out of China. There's another which estimates 6-8 but I'll leave that to you to look for.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122...

> the virus has already hit.
It's now an epidemic, not at pandemic level.

Not true. In the colloquial sense, and actually every sense of the word, this is a pandemic. At the point it became undeniably a pandemic per the WHO definition, the WHO announced they were "no longer going to use the category pandemic." The coronavirus is on every continent but one now.

>The virus has an overall 98% survival rate
You say this as if 2% of people dying is somehow nothing. Think about everybody in your life that you care deeply about. Relatives, friends, mentors, etc. If this goes pandemic, at least one person in that category will likely die.

People should not just focus on the mortality rate of the virus itself, as people can also die:
- if the health care system is overwhelmed and they can't get treatment for other life-threatening illnesses
- if there are medicine shortages (because a lot of medicines are made in China, and it has shut down a lot of its manufacturing)
- if people lack necessities like food as panic sets in people start hoarding
- if people start refusing to help each other out of fear they'll get infected
In addition, something like 20% of the people who do survive can suffer lung damage that can seriously impact their life.
This is not something to be complacent about. Prepare and take care.

Indeed. If you have 20 to 30 people that you love or care about a 2% mortality rate means that there is about a 50% chance at least one of them will die.

Thanks for editing your post, but given the nature of the subject matter, I would urge you to just take it down. It contains misinformation which can be dangerous.
This is serious. You don't have to panic, but this is serious.

Nah I think it generated some good discussion, if nothing else. If you are coming to HN for emergency preparedness and health advice, I’d say you are screwed already. This site is for entertainment and discourse right? Relax.
And If the WHO and the CDC are “misinformation”- so be it.

the virus itself is not the biggest threat. It's the sideeffects of everyone's fear. Once fear starts to take hold, anything can happen.
Also, the steps that authorities might take in response to that fear...

From the CDC
> However, it is important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html#risk-...

Not too worried, but that's what I'm doing just in case supplies chains break down. Mostly beans, dried fruit, chicken stock. You might want to get a few things to boost your immune system, and to compensate for less then ideal nutrition. Vitamin C, D, B12 are the most important ones. Thyme is supposedly very good. Tea, green & rosehip. Red wine, chocolate.
Don't bother with masks or anything, you probably won't be able to avoid infection anyway. Also I'm already convinced the panic & paranoia will cause way more disruption then the virus itself.

Zinc.
Evidence shows that if taken before exposure it reduces the risk of catching the cold, and if taken during the first 24 hours of symptoms it reduces the length and severity of the cold.
Some evidence suggests it works for the SARS Coronaviruses too (i.e. not just Rhinoviruses)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47794995_Zn_Inhibit...
Beware. Taking Zinc regularly, especially in the high doses necessary for the cold/flu resistance effect, is NOT a good idea. It leads copper deficiency and anemia.

as far as vitamins go, the most important ones are vitamin C and B because they are water soluable, so your body doesn't store those. The fat soluable ones can be stored in your body for a very long time (A,D,E,K), so you don't need to worry about those as much in times of fasting.

> It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum.
Despite the rest of your post being overly alarmist this is a good recommendation. You should have extra staple food at all times. The cost is minimal, you can keep extra of foods you'd eat anyway, and the benefit in an unlikely supply chain disruption could be significant.

FYI: You can get get a 50 lbs bag of pinto beans at Sams for $33 and a 50 lbs bag of rice for $17. They will keep as is at least a year and provide, respectively, 76,000 calories and 82,400 calories. Maybe 80 days worth of food for a single individual.
It would be a pretty monotonous diet but better than the alternative.

Drinking water is frequently the bottleneck, as stable food stores are cheap and straightforward.

If you have drinkable tap water you should be ok.

In this instance, a pandemic. There are many other scenarios where even if you have drinkable tap water under normal circumstances, disaster might render that useless.
I drink bottled/filtered only due to negative side effects (for me personally, most don’t have any) of drinking chlorinated water, so simply increasing my input buffer is really straightforward.

Going to a tech conference!...

@dang can we please lock this thread, as it seems to be creating more FUD than there is already. I think I haven't been so stressed out about reading anything on the internet in the last few years as much as this ask hn. Edit: spelling

1) Obtain prescription opioids in case I become fatally ill
2) Learn difficult social skills, such as refusing to help a sick neighbor
3) Consider buying an autoclave
4) Learn to cook with quinoa and lentils in case of a rice and bean shortage

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