=> Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to see doctors)
=> Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
=> Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%
The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei!
Ref: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana....
From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China."
Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak